DigitalOcean Holdings (DOCN) Fair Value & Analysis
Technology · US · Market cap $13.9B
DigitalOcean Holdings
DOCN · US
Fair value as of: Jul 20, 2026
From 23 valuation models · updated 18 days ago
Share price −10.8% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 86% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($22.22). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (66/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- A fairly wide model range ($12.29 to $22.22) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 20, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $19.82 – $181.29 · fair‑value band $12.29 – $22.22 · the $122.23 price screens above the $17.09 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 20, 2026.
Analysis
DigitalOcean Holdings (DOCN) currently trades at $122.23, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $17.09, implying the stock looks roughly 86.0% overvalued today. We read business quality at 66/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, DigitalOcean Holdings generated revenue of $949M at a net margin of 25.0%. Revenue grew 22.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 70.0%. Net debt stands at $476M. Fundamentals as of Jul 20, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $12.29 (bear case) to $22.22 (bull case); at $122.23, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Analysts expect earnings well below the last reported figure (earnings in transition, for example expiring patents or contracts); a fair value that looks fair on trailing earnings may then be too optimistic. The share trades about 34% below its 52-week high and 378% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at -53% fair-value upside, at -86%, DOCN screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 23 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($61.50) versus Dividend Discount ($5.97). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 20, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 67 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 63
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
DigitalOcean Holdings, Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates an agentic inference cloud platform in North America, Europe, Asia, and internationally. The company provides AI and Digital Native Enterprises build, run, and scale intelligent applications for growing technology companies.
Full company description
DigitalOcean Holdings, Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates an agentic inference cloud platform in North America, Europe, Asia, and internationally. The company provides AI and Digital Native Enterprises build, run, and scale intelligent applications for growing technology companies. It also offers infrastructure-as-a-service (IaaS) solutions comprising compute, storage, and networking products, including cloud firewalls, managed load balancers, NAT gateways, and virtual private cloud software, as well as IP address management and domain name system management. In addition, the company provides platform-as-a-service (PaaS) and software-as-a-service (SaaS) solutions, such as managed databases; managed Kubernetes and container registry; application platform to build, deploy, and scale applications; Functions, a serverless compute solution; and Uptime for real-time uptime and latency alerts, as well as managed hosting and DigitalOcean Marketplace, a platform where developers can find pre-configured applications and solutions. Further, it offers artificial intelligence (AI)/machine learning (ML) applications comprising GPU droplets; bare metal GPUS, which provides access to a GPU server without any virtualization layer and gives developers with customizable server for their use case; and Jupyter Notebooks that provides cloud workspace and managed interactive development environment for exploring data and training, and building machine learning models. Its customers use its platform in various industry verticals, such as online gaming, fintech, and cybersecurity, as well as for a range of use cases, including building and hosting websites, web and mobile applications development, AI integration, and building AI products and applications. DigitalOcean Holdings, Inc. was incorporated in 2012 and is headquartered in Broomfield, Colorado.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
DigitalOcean Holdings reported revenue of $901M in FY2025 versus $429M in FY2021, a compound +20.4%/yr. Reported net income was $259M in FY2025.
DOCN screens 86% overvalued. Compare with Microsoft Corporation →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- DigitalOcean Poised to Deliver Strong Q2, Outperform Full-Year Outlook, Oppenheimer Says
- Analysts Estimate DigitalOcean Holdings, Inc. (DOCN) to Report a Decline in Earnings: What to Look Out for
- Next Century Growth Investors exits Bloom Energy, Coherent; adds DigitalOcean in Q2
Peer Group
Software - Infrastructure · 367 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Software - Infrastructure median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 44/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Software - Infrastructure stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 20, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Microsoft Corporation MSFT | $384.00 | $274.17 | -29% |
| Oracle Corporation ORAC | C$9.08 | C$2.94 | -68% |
| Palantir Technologies Inc 1PLTR | €112.86 | €12.03 | -89% |
| Fortinet, Inc FTNT | $160.78 | $44.96 | -72% |
| Synopsys, Inc 1SNPS | €381.50 | €118.28 | -69% |
| Block, Inc XYZ | A$114.53 | A$70.69 | -38% |
| CoreWeave, Inc CRWV | $79.94 | $44.89 | -44% |
| Range Intelligent Computing Technology Group 300442 | ¥71.60 | ¥34.00 | -53% |
| Oracle Financial Services Software Limited OFSS | ₹11,651 | ₹5,821 | -50% |
| One97 Communications Limited PAYTM | ₹1,342 | ₹181.50 | -86% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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