Droneshield Ltd (DRO) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 29, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Droneshield Ltd stock A$0.18, price A$1.45, upside -87.7%, quality 41 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Oct 28, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$0.1550 – A$6.60 · fair‑value band A$0.1785 – A$0.1955 · the A$1.45 price screens above the A$0.1785 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Oct 28, 2026.
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DroneShield Limited engages in the development, commercialization, and sale of counter-drone hardware and software technology in Australia, the United States, Europe, Asia, the United Kingdon, and internationally.
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It provides DroneSentry-C2, a command-and-control platform; DroneSentry-C2 Enterprise, a browser-based monitoring platform; DroneSentry-C2 Tactical, a rugged command-and-control solution; RfPatrol-Plugin, a mobile-first ATAK-CIV plugin; Access Portal that provides centralized access to mission-critical support and resources.
The company also offers RfPatrol Mk2, a wearable solution providing true airspace awareness for military, law enforcement, and executive security personnel; DroneGun Mk4, an ultra-portable handheld countermeasure; Immediate Response Kit, a rapidly deployable counter-drone solution; and DroneGun Tactical, a portable threat long range and highly effective countermeasure.
In addition, it provides DroneSentry-X Mk2, a software-defined detection and adaptive disruption system; and Expeditionary Fixed Site (EFS) Kit that transforms the DroneSentry-X Mk2 into a sensor and effector solution for wide area operations.
Further, the company offers DroneSentry, an autonomous interoperable detection and countermeasure; and SentryCiv, a drone detection system that delivers 360-degree radio frequency (RF) situational awareness using its RFAI engine.
It serves defence and intelligence agencies; airports, ports, prisons, data centres, and other critical infrastructure; utilities, such as power plants, electricity grids, and gas pipelines; intelligence and national security agencies; stadiums and other public event venues and organizers; and assets owners.
The company sells its products through third party distributors, as well as direct relationships with various customers. DroneShield Limited was founded in 2014 and is based in Sydney, Australia.
Stock analysis
Droneshield Ltd (DRO) currently trades at A$1.45, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$0.1785, 87.7% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of A$0.3300 per share, and 1 of the 20 models we run sit above the A$1.45 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at A$0.1300, and 19 of the 20 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: A$0.1785 (bear) to A$0.1955 (bull), the price of A$1.45 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 41/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Droneshield Ltd reported revenue of A$217M in FY2025 versus A$10.5M in FY2021, a compound +113.3%/yr. Reported net income was A$3.5M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap A$1.4B (≈ $990M) Small · P/S ratio 9.68 · Net margin 1.6% · Return on equity 1.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) −10.6% · Operating margin −3.5% · Revenue (TTM) A$217M · Revenue growth (YoY) +317%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 23 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 69% below its 52-week high and 2% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −29% fair-value upside, at −88%, DRO screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely (A$0.0600 to A$1.54). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
BearA$0.1785Fair Value A$0.1785BullA$0.1955
Price A$1.45 · Upside -87.7%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
FCF DCFA$0.2600A$0.3200A$0.520077
Growth DCFA$0.2500A$0.3400A$0.500076
5Y EBITDA ExitA$0.2100A$0.2600A$0.370074
All 20 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCFA$0.2600A$0.3200A$0.520077
5Y Revenue ExitA$0.2300A$0.3000A$0.460070
5Y EBITDA ExitA$0.2100A$0.2600A$0.370074
5Y P/E ExitA$0.2000A$0.2800A$0.390069
10Y Revenue ExitA$0.2300A$0.3600A$0.440065
10Y EBITDA ExitA$0.2200A$0.3200A$0.480066
10Y P/E ExitA$0.2200A$0.3100A$0.450062
Earnings-Based
Graham-DoddA$0.0300A$0.1800A$0.250061
Lynch FVA$0.0900A$0.1300A$0.170059
PEG = 1.0A$0.0900A$0.1300A$0.170055
Multiples
P/E MultipleA$0.0600A$0.0800A$0.100063
P/S MultipleA$0.0500A$0.0600A$0.080058
P/B MultipleA$1.16A$1.54A$1.9355
EV/EBITDAA$0.1500A$0.1800A$0.200067
EV/RevenueA$0.1800A$0.2100A$0.250054
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)A$0.1900A$0.2800A$0.350055
Growth DCF
Growth DCFA$0.2500A$0.3400A$0.500076
Rev-Margin DCFA$0.2400A$0.3300A$0.520070
Economic Profit
Residual IncomeA$0.2300A$0.2100A$0.200068
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/EA$0.1200A$0.1700A$0.230065
The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for dilution from new shares.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.85/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+276.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+134.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+112.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +106.5% a year
Revenue growth 11 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+161.2%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 3 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 3 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−43.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−43.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−150% → −2%
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+51.0%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+17.6%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Australia: IMF forecast 3.0% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +46.6% a year for the price and +14.2% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (10 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Aerospace & Defense · 234 stocks
Beats the industry median on 1/10 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score41 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−87.7% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)1.1% · Bottom 25%
Return on assets0.9% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months)1.6% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months)−3.5% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)316.8% · Top 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Aerospace & Defense median · lower = cheaper
P/B4.18× · Pricier than median
P/S (12 months)6.49× · Priciest 25%
Price / free cash flow152.3× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 59
PAST (return on equity)4· sector 41
HEALTH (low debt)100· sector 94
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 18
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Droneshield Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/DRO
Frequently asked questions
Is Droneshield Ltd (DRO) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 28, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$0.1785 versus a price of A$1.45, about −88% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of DRO?
Our model-based fair value for Droneshield Ltd is A$0.1785 (as of Oct 28, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$1.45.
What is the quality score of DRO?
Droneshield Ltd has a Quality Score of 41/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Droneshield Ltd (DRO)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$0.1785 (as of Oct 28, 2026) from 20 valuation models. Cautious scenario A$0.1785, optimistic scenario A$0.1955. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Droneshield Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$0.1785, about −88% upside versus a price of A$1.45 (overvalued). Cautious scenario A$0.1785, optimistic scenario A$0.1955. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Droneshield Ltd (DRO)?
Droneshield Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about A$217M (latest available figure, as of Oct 28, 2026).
What growth is priced into Droneshield Ltd (DRO)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Droneshield Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +51.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +112.3 % per year. As of Oct 28, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of DRO use?
Our models discount Droneshield Ltd at 11.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 1.00, country premium for Australia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Droneshield Ltd that is +51.0 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Droneshield Ltd (DRO) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Droneshield Ltd grew +112.3 % a year. The price currently implies +51.0 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Droneshield Ltd (DRO) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Droneshield Ltd (+51.0 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Droneshield Ltd (DRO)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 0.66 %: that much free cash flow Droneshield Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Droneshield Ltd (DRO)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Droneshield Ltd it is A$0.1785 per share (as of Oct 28, 2026), against a price of A$1.45. It is the blended result of 20 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Droneshield Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 28, 2026, DRO trades above its calculated fair value: price A$1.45, fair value A$0.1785, a gap of about −88% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of DRO?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$1.45); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$0.1785). For Droneshield Ltd the two are A$1.27 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Droneshield Ltd worth?
The market values Droneshield Ltd at about A$1.4B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 28, 2026). Per share that is A$1.45; our models calculate a fair value of A$0.1785 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about DRO?
Our models span a range for Droneshield Ltd: cautious scenario A$0.1785, base A$0.1785, optimistic A$0.1955 per share (as of Oct 28, 2026, price A$1.45). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Droneshield Ltd (DRO)?
Balance-sheet figures for Droneshield Ltd (as of Oct 28, 2026): return on equity 1.1%. They feed the Quality Score of 41/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is DRO from its 52-week high?
Droneshield Ltd trades at A$1.45, about 69% below its 52-week high of A$4.74 and 2% above the low of A$1.42 (as of Oct 29, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$0.1785 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Droneshield Ltd?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value General Electric Company, RTX Corporation, Airbus SE, Safran SA, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Droneshield Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 28, 2026: price A$1.45, calculated fair value A$0.1785 (−88%), Quality Score 41/100, from 20 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of DRO calculated?
We run Droneshield Ltd through 20 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of A$0.1785, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Droneshield Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Droneshield Ltd (DRO)?
The closing price on Oct 29, 2026 was A$1.45. Our model-based fair value is A$0.1785, about −88% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Droneshield Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (A$0.1955). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (41/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. The models converge in a tight band (A$0.1785 to A$0.1955), unusually little disagreement for a valuation.
Key figures of Droneshield Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Droneshield Ltd (DRO)?
The market capitalisation of Droneshield Ltd is A$1.4B (≈ $990M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Droneshield Ltd (DRO)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Droneshield Ltd is 9.68 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What is the net margin of Droneshield Ltd (DRO)?
The net margin of Droneshield Ltd is 1.6% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Droneshield Ltd (DRO)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Droneshield Ltd is 1.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Droneshield Ltd (DRO)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Droneshield Ltd is −10.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Droneshield Ltd (DRO)?
The operating margin of Droneshield Ltd is −3.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Droneshield Ltd (DRO)?
Revenue at Droneshield Ltd is growing +317% versus a year earlier (3y avg +134%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Droneshield Ltd (DRO)?
Earnings per share at Droneshield Ltd are growing −73.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Droneshield Ltd (DRO) hold?
Droneshield Ltd holds more cash than debt, A$78.1M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Thin data
Oct 28, 2026