ADF Group (DRX) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · CA · Market cap C$512M
Fair value as of: Jul 18, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 23 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 18, 2026, revised from C$33.53 to C$19.44 (−42.0%) since Jun 25, 2026. Share price −14.9% over the past month.
A solid business, screening 29% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- Solid quality (62/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
- Our model range runs from C$14.12 (bear) to C$24.30 (bull), base C$19.44. The closer the price sits to the lower half, the larger the margin of safety.
- Quality 62/100 (solid quality) with high evidence: the data supports the verdict.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range C$1.29 – C$20.30 · fair‑value band C$14.12 – C$24.30 · the C$15.09 price screens below the C$19.44 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.
Analysis
ADF Group (DRX) currently trades at C$15.09, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is C$19.44, implying the stock looks roughly 28.8% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 62/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, ADF Group generated revenue of C$259M at a net margin of 10.2%. Revenue grew 1.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 14.9%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of C$21.1M. Fundamentals as of Jul 18, 2026
Our scenario range runs from C$14.12 (bear case) to C$24.30 (bull case); at C$15.09, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 127% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -72% fair-value upside, at 29%, DRX screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (C$20.30) versus Dividend Discount (C$0.5000). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 18, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 64 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 82
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
ADF Group Inc. engages in the design and engineering of connections including industrial coatings in Canada and the United States. It also fabricates and installs complex steel structures; heavy steel built up components; and miscellaneous and architectural metalwork services.
Full company description
ADF Group Inc. engages in the design and engineering of connections including industrial coatings in Canada and the United States. It also fabricates and installs complex steel structures; heavy steel built up components; and miscellaneous and architectural metalwork services. In addition, the company offers products and services for various segments of the non-residential construction industry, such as office towers and high-rises, commercial and recreational buildings, airport facilities, industrial complexes, and transport infrastructures and energy. Further, it operates in the field of machining, welding and industrial mechanics and offers design, fabrication, and installation of welded steel structures; and customized overhead crane solutions for heavy industry. It serves general contractors, project owners, engineering firms and project architects, structural steel erectors, and other steel structure fabricators. The company was formerly known as Les Entreprises El Drago Ltée and changed its name to ADF Group Inc. in August 1998. ADF Group Inc. was founded in 1956 and is headquartered in Terrebonne, Canada.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years
ADF Group reported revenue of C$259M in FY2026 versus C$281M in FY2022, a compound −2.0%/yr. Reported net income was C$26.3M in FY2026, compounding +28.8%/yr from FY2022.
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Peer Group
Metal Fabrication · 243 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Metal Fabrication median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 35/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Metal Fabrication stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 18, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Carpenter Technology Corporation CRS | $577.10 | $103.31 | -82% |
| ATI Inc ATI | $186.17 | $36.51 | -80% |
| Mueller Industries, Inc MLI | $59.13 | $60.24 | +2% |
| China International Marine Containers (Group) Co 000039 | ¥7.45 | ¥1.15 | -85% |
| JL Mag Rare-Earth Co 300748 | ¥31.69 | ¥8.74 | -72% |
| Western Superconducting Technologies Co 688122 | ¥56.73 | ¥24.43 | -57% |
| Ningbo Zhenyu Technology Co 300953 | ¥131.65 | ¥44.23 | -66% |
| Anhui Yingliu Electromechanical Co 603308 | ¥48.52 | ¥8.07 | -83% |
| Baoding Technology Co 002552 | ¥43.95 | ¥5.44 | -88% |
| Xiamen Voke Mold & Plastic Engineering Co 301196 | ¥110.08 | ¥42.71 | -61% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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