ADF Group Inc. (DRX) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of ADF Group Inc. stock C$19.44, price C$16.98, upside +14.5%, quality 63 out of 100. Rating: undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range C$1.37 – C$20.30 · fair‑value band C$14.21 – C$24.30 · the C$16.98 price screens below the C$19.44 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 5, 2026.
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ADF Group Inc. engages in the design and engineering of connections including industrial coatings in Canada and the United States. It also fabricates and installs complex steel structures; heavy steel built up components; and miscellaneous and architectural metalwork services.
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In addition, the company offers products and services for various segments of the non-residential construction industry, such as office towers and high-rises, commercial and recreational buildings, airport facilities, industrial complexes, and transport infrastructures and energy.
Further, it operates in the field of machining, welding and industrial mechanics and offers design, fabrication, and installation of welded steel structures; and customized overhead crane solutions for heavy industry.
It serves general contractors, project owners, engineering firms and project architects, structural steel erectors, and other steel structure fabricators. The company was formerly known as Les Entreprises El Drago Ltée and changed its name to ADF Group Inc. in August 1998.
ADF Group Inc. was founded in 1956 and is headquartered in Terrebonne, Canada.
Stock analysis
ADF Group Inc. (DRX) currently trades at C$16.98, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is C$19.44, implying the stock looks roughly 13% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of C$20.83 per share, and 16 of the 26 models we run sit above the C$16.98 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at C$8.14, and 10 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: C$14.21 (bear) to C$24.30 (bull), the price of C$16.98 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 63/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
ADF Group Inc. reported revenue of C$259M in FY2026 versus C$281M in FY2022, a compound −2.0%/yr. Reported net income was C$26.3M in FY2026, compounding +28.8%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap C$483M (≈ $342M) Small · P/E ratio 14.7 · P/S ratio 1.40 · EPS (TTM) C$1.11 · Dividend yield 0.2% · Net margin 9.2% · Return on equity 17.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 13.2% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 52 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 8% below its 52-week high and 143% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −38% fair-value upside, at 14%, DRX screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
BearC$14.21Fair Value C$19.44BullC$24.30
Price C$16.98 · Upside +14.5%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (C$0.8267 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.76/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−23.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.4%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +10.2% a year
Revenue growth 26 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.7%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+29.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+29.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.2%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.29.7% vs 34.2%, slowing
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.7% → 14%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2021 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+2.1%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Canada: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about 0.0% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Metal Fabrication · 260 stocks
Beats the industry median on 11/15 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score63 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+14.5% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)17.2% · Top 25%
Return on assets8.0% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)9.2% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)6.6% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)79.3% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)0.2% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.19× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Metal Fabrication median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)14.7× · Cheaper than median
P/B2.63× · Pricier than median
P/S (12 months)1.40× · Cheaper than median
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)12.0× · Cheaper than median
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "ADF Group Inc. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/DRX
Frequently asked questions
Is ADF Group Inc. (DRX) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 5, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of C$19.44 versus a price of C$16.98, about +14% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of DRX?
Our model-based fair value for ADF Group Inc. is C$19.44 (as of Nov 5, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: C$16.98.
What is the quality score of DRX?
ADF Group Inc. has a Quality Score of 63/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for ADF Group Inc. (DRX)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of C$19.44 (as of Nov 5, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario C$14.21, optimistic scenario C$24.30. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the ADF Group Inc. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at C$19.44, about +14% upside versus a price of C$16.98 (undervalued). Cautious scenario C$14.21, optimistic scenario C$24.30. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of ADF Group Inc. (DRX)?
ADF Group Inc. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about C$344M (latest available figure, as of Nov 5, 2026).
Does ADF Group Inc. pay a dividend?
ADF Group Inc. currently shows a dividend yield of 0.24% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 5, 2026).
How much is the dividend of ADF Group Inc. (DRX) and when is the ex-dividend date?
ADF Group Inc. pays a dividend of C$0.04 per share a year, a dividend yield of 0.2%. The last ex-dividend date was Sep 25, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 2011. The payout ratio is 3.6% of earnings. Free cash flow covers the dividend 60.83 times. Our assessment: Well covered. A low payout and the dividend is fully funded by free cash flow, a comfortable, sustainable dividend.
What growth is priced into ADF Group Inc. (DRX)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, ADF Group Inc. would have to grow free cash flow by +2.1 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +8.4 % per year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of DRX use?
Our models discount ADF Group Inc. at 11.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), country premium for Canada. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For ADF Group Inc. that is +2.1 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (11.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has ADF Group Inc. (DRX) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at ADF Group Inc. grew +8.4 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +2.1 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of ADF Group Inc. (DRX) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into ADF Group Inc. (+2.1 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of ADF Group Inc. (DRX)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 8.31 %: that much free cash flow ADF Group Inc. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of ADF Group Inc. (DRX)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For ADF Group Inc. it is C$19.44 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026), against a price of C$16.98. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models in 8 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is ADF Group Inc. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 5, 2026, DRX trades below its calculated fair value: price C$16.98, fair value C$19.44, a gap of about +14% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of DRX?
No. The price is what the market pays today (C$16.98); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (C$19.44). For ADF Group Inc. the two are C$2.46 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is ADF Group Inc. worth?
The market values ADF Group Inc. at about C$483M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 5, 2026). Per share that is C$16.98; our models calculate a fair value of C$19.44 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about DRX?
Our models span a range for ADF Group Inc.: cautious scenario C$14.21, base C$19.44, optimistic C$24.30 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026, price C$16.98). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of DRX?
ADF Group Inc. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 14.7 (as of Nov 5, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of C$19.44 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 7 fiscal years (2017 to 2026), reported earnings, FY2026 ex one-offs: 6.9. Other multiples: PEG 6.0, P/B 2.6, P/S 1.4, EV/EBITDA 8.2.
What is the PEG ratio of DRX?
The PEG ratio of ADF Group Inc. is 6.02 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 5, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of ADF Group Inc. (DRX)?
Balance-sheet figures for ADF Group Inc. (as of Nov 5, 2026): return on equity 17.2%, debt of 0.19 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 63/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is DRX from its 52-week high?
ADF Group Inc. trades at C$16.98, about 8% below its 52-week high of C$18.39 and 143% above the low of C$6.99 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of C$19.44 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to ADF Group Inc.?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value ATI Inc, Carpenter Technology Corporation, Mueller Industries, Inc, Bharat Forge Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is ADF Group Inc. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 5, 2026: price C$16.98, calculated fair value C$19.44 (+14%), Quality Score 63/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of DRX calculated?
We run ADF Group Inc. through 26 models from 8 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of C$19.44 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. ADF Group Inc. currently trades 13% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of ADF Group Inc. (DRX)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was C$16.98. Our model-based fair value is C$19.44, about +14% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with ADF Group Inc. right now?
The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety. The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Where does the earnings growth of ADF Group Inc. (DRX) come from?
Earnings per share at ADF Group Inc. grew +47.3 % a year from 2016 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +15.1 %, EBIT margin +23.0 %, tax rate +2.6 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +1.4 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of ADF Group Inc.
How large is the market capitalisation of ADF Group Inc. (DRX)?
The market capitalisation of ADF Group Inc. is C$483M (≈ $342M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of ADF Group Inc. (DRX)?
The price-to-sales ratio of ADF Group Inc. is 1.40 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of ADF Group Inc. (DRX)?
Earnings per share at ADF Group Inc. are C$1.11 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 14.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of ADF Group Inc. (DRX)?
The dividend yield of ADF Group Inc. is 0.2% (payout 3.6%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of ADF Group Inc. (DRX)?
The net margin of ADF Group Inc. is 9.2% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of ADF Group Inc. (DRX)?
The return on equity (ROE) of ADF Group Inc. is 17.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of ADF Group Inc. (DRX)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of ADF Group Inc. is 13.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of ADF Group Inc. (DRX)?
The operating margin of ADF Group Inc. is 6.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at ADF Group Inc. (DRX)?
Revenue at ADF Group Inc. is growing +79.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +1.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at ADF Group Inc. (DRX)?
Earnings per share at ADF Group Inc. are growing +227% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does ADF Group Inc. (DRX) hold?
ADF Group Inc. holds more cash than debt, C$21.1M net (fiscal year 2026). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Broad data
Nov 5, 2026