Duolingo Inc (DUOL) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what Duolingo Inc is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 19, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $63.00 – $540.68 · fair‑value band $118.29 – $299.88 · the $149.42 price screens below the $189.40 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 19, 2026.
Duolingo, Inc. operates as a mobile learning platform in the United States, the United Kingdom, and internationally. The company offers 250 language courses, including Spanish, English, French, German, Italian, Portuguese, Japanese, and Chinese through its Duolingo app. It also provides a digital English language proficiency assessment exam.
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Duolingo, Inc. operates as a mobile learning platform in the United States, the United Kingdom, and internationally. The company offers 250 language courses, including Spanish, English, French, German, Italian, Portuguese, Japanese, and Chinese through its Duolingo app. It also provides a digital English language proficiency assessment exam. The company was incorporated in 2011 and is headquartered in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.
Stock analysis
Duolingo Inc (DUOL) currently trades at $149.42, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $189.40, implying the stock looks roughly 21.1% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $478.10 per share, and 12 of the 24 models we run sit above the $149.42 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $22.43, and 12 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $118.29 (bear) to $299.88 (bull), the price of $149.42 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 69/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Duolingo Inc reported revenue of $1.0B in FY2025 versus $251M in FY2021, a compound +42.6%/yr. Reported net income was $414M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $7.2B · P/E ratio 14.3 · P/S ratio 5.69 · EPS (TTM) $8.75 · Net margin 39.9% · Return on equity 37.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.2% · Operating margin 15.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 58 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 71% below its 52-week high and 70% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −16% fair-value upside, at 27%, DUOL screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $118.29Fair Value $189.40Bull $299.88
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($6.35 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.100/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+38.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+41.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+45.0%
Revenue growth 6 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+56.4%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−9.7% (2020) → 13.6% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: rate outside our plausibility band
not computed
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+5.3%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+12.6%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Software - Application · 696 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/12 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score72 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−44% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)37% · Top 25%
Return on assets6% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)38% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)15% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth27% · Top 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Software - Application median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Duolingo Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/DUOL
Frequently asked questions
Is Duolingo Inc (DUOL) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 19, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $189.40 versus a price of $149.42, about +27% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of DUOL?
Our model-based fair value for Duolingo Inc is $189.40 (as of Sep 19, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $149.42.
What is the quality score of DUOL?
Duolingo Inc has a Quality Score of 69/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Duolingo Inc (DUOL)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $189.40 (as of Sep 19, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $118.29, optimistic scenario $299.88. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Duolingo Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $189.40, about +27% upside versus a price of $149.42 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $118.29, optimistic scenario $299.88. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Duolingo Inc (DUOL)?
Duolingo Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $1.1B (latest available figure, as of Sep 19, 2026).
What growth is priced into Duolingo Inc (DUOL)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Duolingo Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +5.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.4 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +45.0 % per year. As of Sep 19, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of DUOL use?
Our models discount Duolingo Inc at 9.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.88, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Duolingo Inc that is +5.3 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.4 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Duolingo Inc (DUOL) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Duolingo Inc grew +45.0 % a year. The price currently implies +5.3 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Duolingo Inc (DUOL) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Duolingo Inc (+5.3 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Duolingo Inc (DUOL)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 5.12 %: that much free cash flow Duolingo Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.4 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Duolingo Inc (DUOL)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Duolingo Inc it is $189.40 per share (as of Sep 19, 2026), against a price of $149.42. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Duolingo Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 19, 2026, DUOL trades below its calculated fair value: price $149.42, fair value $189.40, a gap of about +27% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of DUOL?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($149.42); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($189.40). For Duolingo Inc the two are $39.98 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Duolingo Inc worth?
The market values Duolingo Inc at about $7.2B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 19, 2026). Per share that is $149.42; our models calculate a fair value of $189.40 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about DUOL?
Our models span a range for Duolingo Inc: cautious scenario $118.29, base $189.40, optimistic $299.88 per share (as of Sep 19, 2026, price $149.42). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of DUOL?
Duolingo Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 14.3 (as of Sep 19, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $189.40 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 4.3, P/S 5.3, EV/EBITDA 26.9.
How solid is the balance sheet of Duolingo Inc (DUOL)?
Balance-sheet figures for Duolingo Inc (as of Sep 19, 2026): return on equity 37.0%. They feed the Quality Score of 69/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is DUOL from its 52-week high?
Duolingo Inc trades at $149.42, about 71% below its 52-week high of $509.48 and 70% above the low of $87.89 (as of Sep 19, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $189.40 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Duolingo Inc?
From the same area (Technology) we also value SAP SE, Shopify Inc, Uber Technologies, Inc, Salesforce, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Duolingo Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 19, 2026: price $149.42, calculated fair value $189.40 (+27%), Quality Score 69/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of DUOL calculated?
We run Duolingo Inc through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $189.40, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 16.6 % above its aggregate fair value. Duolingo Inc currently trades 27 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Duolingo Inc (DUOL)?
The closing price on Sep 21, 2026 was $149.42. Our model-based fair value is $189.40, about +27% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Duolingo Inc right now?
Solid quality (69/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range ($118.29 to $299.88) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Duolingo Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Duolingo Inc (DUOL)?
The market capitalisation of Duolingo Inc is $7.2B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Duolingo Inc (DUOL)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Duolingo Inc is 5.69 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Duolingo Inc (DUOL)?
Earnings per share at Duolingo Inc are $8.75 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 14.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Duolingo Inc (DUOL)?
The net margin of Duolingo Inc is 39.9% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Duolingo Inc (DUOL)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Duolingo Inc is 37.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Duolingo Inc (DUOL)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Duolingo Inc is 2.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Duolingo Inc (DUOL)?
The operating margin of Duolingo Inc is 15.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Duolingo Inc (DUOL)?
Revenue at Duolingo Inc is growing +26.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg +41.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Duolingo Inc (DUOL)?
Earnings per share at Duolingo Inc are growing +23.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Duolingo Inc (DUOL) hold?
Duolingo Inc holds more cash than debt, $943M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Broad data
Sep 19, 2026