Eurocommercial Properties N.V. (ECMPA) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Eurocommercial Properties N.V. stock €18.00, price €25.45, that is 29.3% below the price, quality 54 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 16 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 4, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €11.62 – €28.20 · fair‑value band €10.58 – €30.07 · the €25.45 price screens above the €18.00 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 4, 2026.
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Eurocommercial Properties N.V. is a Euronext-quoted property investment company and one of Europe's shopping centre specialists. Founded in 1991, Eurocommercial currently owns and operates 24 shopping centres in Belgium, France, Italy, and Sweden with total assets of 4 billion euros.
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Eurocommercial Properties N.V. was incorporated in Netherlands.
Stock analysis
Eurocommercial Properties N.V. (ECMPA) currently trades at €25.45, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €18.00, 29% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Economic Profit group reads highest at a median of €30.23 per share, and 6 of the 16 models we run sit above the €25.45 price.
Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at €11.71, and 10 of the 16 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: €10.58 (bear) to €30.07 (bull), the price of €25.45 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 54/100 (solid quality), in the Real Estate sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Eurocommercial Properties N.V. reported revenue of €283M in FY2026 versus €238M in FY2022, a compound +4.5%/yr. Reported net income was €124M in FY2026, compounding +4.4%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap €1.4B Small · P/E ratio 7.6 · P/S ratio 4.83 · EPS (TTM) €3.33 · Dividend yield 7.2% · Net margin 63.5% · Return on equity 8.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.2% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 67 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 10% below its 52-week high and 7% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at −30% fair-value upside, at −29%, ECMPA screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear€10.58Fair Value €18.00Bull€30.07
Price €25.45 · Downside -29.3%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 4 months old). Earnings retained since then (€0.5384 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.63/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+4.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.9%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +3.2% a year
Revenue growth 24 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.2%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis.
+11.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+3.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)7.2%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.8.9% vs 18.2%, slowing
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.63% → 64%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2021 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+21.2%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
−9.3%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +18.6% a year for the price and −11.2% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (68 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Very negative
Compare Eurocommercial Properties N.V. with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.REIT - Retail · 88 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score54 · Below median
Fair Value upside−29.3% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)8.5% · Above median
Return on assets3.0% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)63.5% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)67.4% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)−6.7% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)7.2% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.51× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs REIT - Retail median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)7.6× · Cheapest 25%
P/B0.65× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (12 months)4.83× · Cheaper than median
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)16.4× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA12.5× · Cheapest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 18
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 27
PAST (return on equity)34· sector 32
HEALTH (low debt)75· sector 69
DIVIDEND (yield)100· sector 100
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Eurocommercial Properties N.V. (ECMPA) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 4, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €18.00 versus a price of €25.45, about 29% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of ECMPA?
Our model-based fair value for Eurocommercial Properties N.V. is €18.00 (as of Nov 4, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €25.45.
What is the quality score of ECMPA?
Eurocommercial Properties N.V. has a Quality Score of 54/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Eurocommercial Properties N.V. (ECMPA)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €18.00 (as of Nov 4, 2026) from 16 valuation models. Cautious scenario €10.58, optimistic scenario €30.07. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Eurocommercial Properties N.V. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €18.00, about 29% lower versus a price of €25.45 (overvalued). Cautious scenario €10.58, optimistic scenario €30.07. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Eurocommercial Properties N.V. (ECMPA)?
Eurocommercial Properties N.V. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €289M (latest available figure, as of Nov 4, 2026).
Does Eurocommercial Properties N.V. pay a dividend?
Eurocommercial Properties N.V. currently shows a dividend yield of 7.19% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 4, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Eurocommercial Properties N.V. (ECMPA) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Eurocommercial Properties N.V. pays a dividend of €1.83 per share a year, a dividend yield of 7.2%. The last ex-dividend date was Jun 4, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since 2021. The payout ratio is 55.0% of earnings. Free cash flow covers the dividend 0.84 times. Our assessment: Watch coverage. The dividend isn’t fully covered by free cash flow or earnings, part of it is funded from reserves or debt. Fine for now, but worth watching: if it stays uncovered, the dividend could be cut.
What growth is priced into Eurocommercial Properties N.V. (ECMPA)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Eurocommercial Properties N.V. would have to grow free cash flow by +21.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +3.9 % per year. As of Nov 4, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of ECMPA use?
Our models discount Eurocommercial Properties N.V. at 10.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.75, country premium for Netherlands. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Eurocommercial Properties N.V. that is +21.2 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (10.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Eurocommercial Properties N.V. (ECMPA) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Eurocommercial Properties N.V. grew +3.9 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +21.2 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Eurocommercial Properties N.V. (ECMPA) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Eurocommercial Properties N.V. (+21.2 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Eurocommercial Properties N.V. (ECMPA)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 6.10 %: that much free cash flow Eurocommercial Properties N.V. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Eurocommercial Properties N.V. (ECMPA)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Eurocommercial Properties N.V. it is €18.00 per share (as of Nov 4, 2026), against a price of €25.45. It is the blended result of 16 valuation models in 6 families (DCF Models, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit).
Is Eurocommercial Properties N.V. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 4, 2026, ECMPA trades above its calculated fair value: price €25.45, fair value €18.00, a gap of about −29% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ECMPA?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€25.45); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€18.00). For Eurocommercial Properties N.V. the two are €7.45 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Eurocommercial Properties N.V. worth?
The market values Eurocommercial Properties N.V. at about €1.4B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 4, 2026). Per share that is €25.45; our models calculate a fair value of €18.00 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ECMPA?
Our models span a range for Eurocommercial Properties N.V.: cautious scenario €10.58, base €18.00, optimistic €30.07 per share (as of Nov 4, 2026, price €25.45). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of ECMPA?
Eurocommercial Properties N.V. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 7.6 (as of Nov 4, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of €18.00 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.7, P/S 4.8, EV/EBITDA 12.5.
How solid is the balance sheet of Eurocommercial Properties N.V. (ECMPA)?
Balance-sheet figures for Eurocommercial Properties N.V. (as of Nov 4, 2026): return on equity 8.5%, debt of 0.51 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 54/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ECMPA from its 52-week high?
Eurocommercial Properties N.V. trades at €25.45, about 10% below its 52-week high of €28.20 and 7% above the low of €23.78 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €18.00 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Eurocommercial Properties N.V.?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value Simon Property Group, Realty Income Corporation, Kimco Realty Corporation, Unibail-Rodamco-Westfield SE, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Eurocommercial Properties N.V. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 4, 2026: price €25.45, calculated fair value €18.00 (−29%), Quality Score 54/100, from 16 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ECMPA calculated?
We run Eurocommercial Properties N.V. through 16 models from 6 families: DCF Models, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of €18.00 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0% above its aggregate fair value. Eurocommercial Properties N.V. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Eurocommercial Properties N.V. (ECMPA)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was €25.45. Our model-based fair value is €18.00, about 29% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Eurocommercial Properties N.V. right now?
The model range is unusually wide (€10.58 to €30.07). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (54/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Where does the earnings growth of Eurocommercial Properties N.V. (ECMPA) come from?
Earnings per share at Eurocommercial Properties N.V. grew +21.4 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +29.9 %, EBIT margin −5.4 %, tax rate −1.6 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.4 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Eurocommercial Properties N.V.
How large is the market capitalisation of Eurocommercial Properties N.V. (ECMPA)?
The market capitalisation of Eurocommercial Properties N.V. is €1.4B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Eurocommercial Properties N.V. (ECMPA)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Eurocommercial Properties N.V. is 4.83 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Eurocommercial Properties N.V. (ECMPA)?
Earnings per share at Eurocommercial Properties N.V. are €3.33 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 7.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Eurocommercial Properties N.V. (ECMPA)?
The dividend yield of Eurocommercial Properties N.V. is 7.2% (payout 55.0%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Eurocommercial Properties N.V. (ECMPA)?
The net margin of Eurocommercial Properties N.V. is 63.5% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Eurocommercial Properties N.V. (ECMPA)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Eurocommercial Properties N.V. is 8.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Eurocommercial Properties N.V. (ECMPA)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Eurocommercial Properties N.V. is 4.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Eurocommercial Properties N.V. (ECMPA)?
The operating margin of Eurocommercial Properties N.V. is 67.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Eurocommercial Properties N.V. (ECMPA)?
Revenue at Eurocommercial Properties N.V. is growing −6.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg +5.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Eurocommercial Properties N.V. (ECMPA)?
Earnings per share at Eurocommercial Properties N.V. are growing +69.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Eurocommercial Properties N.V. (ECMPA) carry?
The net debt of Eurocommercial Properties N.V. is €1.5B (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 17.8 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 4, 2026