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Eurocommercial Properties N.V (ECMPM) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Eurocommercial Properties N.V €26.32, price €25.30, upside +4.0%, quality 57 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? Yes
- Good quality? Yes
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EP
Broad data
Sep 28, 2026
Eurocommercial Properties N.V
ECMPM · MINeutralThe stock looks roughly fairly valued with average quality.
·Fair value €26.32 · Fairly valued (+4.0%)
!Quality 57/100
✓Healthy Growth (revenue 3y +4.0 %/yr)
✓Highly profitable · 54.9% net margin (TTM)
✓Moderate debt · generates free cash flow
✓4.4% dividend yield · Well covered
✓Wide moat 68/100
What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 28, 2026.
How to read this chart
41‑month range €15.73 – €29.40 · fair‑value band €19.64 – €28.20 · the €25.30 price screens below the €26.32 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 28, 2026.
Company profile
Eurocommercial Properties N.V. is a Euronext-quoted property investment company and one of Europe's shopping centre specialists. Founded in 1991, Eurocommercial currently owns and operates 24 shopping centres in Belgium, France, Italy, and Sweden with total assets of 4 billion euros. Eurocommercial Properties N.V. was incorporated in Netherlands.
Stock analysis
Eurocommercial Properties N.V (ECMPM) currently trades at €25.30, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €26.32, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 3.9%).
Show more
Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of €36.23 per share, and 7 of the 14 models we run sit above the €25.30 price.
Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at €7.83, and 7 of the 14 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: €19.64 (bear) to €28.20 (bull), the price of €25.30 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 57/100 (solid quality), in the Real Estate sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Eurocommercial Properties N.V reported revenue of €274M in FY2025 versus €238M in FY2021, a compound +3.6%/yr. Reported net income was €124M in FY2025, compounding +4.4%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap €1.4B · P/E ratio 8.7 · P/S ratio 3.93 · EPS (TTM) €2.92 · Dividend yield 4.4% · Net margin 45.4% · Return on equity 7.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 14% below its 52-week high and 6% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at −24% fair-value upside, at 4%, ECMPM screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear €19.64
Fair Value €26.32
Bull €28.20
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (€1.37 per share) are deliberately not added.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Residual Income
€29.21
€29.30
€30.69
73
FCF DCF
€1.18
€8.12
€16.70
69
Growth DCF
€1.52
€7.83
€15.29
69
All 14 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF
€1.18
€8.12
€16.70
69
5Y Revenue Exit
€2.87
€13.92
€27.50
63
5Y EBITDA Exit
€10.56
€27.58
€46.61
68
10Y Revenue Exit
€1.36
€10.49
€21.71
57
10Y EBITDA Exit
€6.34
€18.92
€34.42
61
Multiples
P/S Multiple
€24.29
€32.38
€40.48
58
P/B Multiple
€28.81
€38.41
€48.02
55
EV/EBIT
€33.97
€51.54
€69.12
65
EV/EBITDA
€22.49
€36.23
€49.98
66
EV/Revenue
€5.66
€16.12
€26.58
50
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
€19.64
€26.32
€39.29
54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF
€1.52
€7.83
€15.29
69
Rev-Margin DCF
€2.87
€14.16
€26.25
64
Economic Profit
Residual Income
€29.21
€29.30
€30.69
73
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
57/100
Of which business quality 54 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 49
Profitability
35
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
38
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
72
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
42
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
74
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
81
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
39
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
30
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
75
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
71/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+4.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.0%
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis.
+6.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+1.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)4.4%
Profit margin 2021 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.65% → 64%
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+28.0%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+0.1%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +25.3% a year for the price and −2.0% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)−13.4%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+4.2%
Projected 2028 (sales)+4.0%
Projected 2029 (sales)+3.7%
Projected 2030 (sales)+3.4%
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Context: sector, industry, market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more REIT - Retail stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Simon Property Group SPG | $200.76 | $114.08 | −43% |
| Realty Income Corporation O | $55.35 | $87.76 | +59% |
| Kimco Realty Corporation KIM | $22.49 | $17.46 | −22% |
| Unibail-Rodamco-Westfield SE URW | €91.72 | €70.12 | −24% |
| CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust (CICT or the Trust) C38U | 2.24 SGD | 1.38 SGD | −38% |
| Regency Centers Corporation REG | $73.23 | $38.95 | −47% |
| Scentre Group SCG | A$3.35 | A$3.49 | +4% |
| Link Real Estate Investment Trust (Link REIT) 0823 | HK$37.02 | HK$38.68 | +4% |
| Federal Realty Investment Trust FRT | $108.29 | $40.55 | −63% |
| Brixmor Property Group BRX | $28.07 | $18.82 | −33% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is Eurocommercial Properties N.V (ECMPM) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 28, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €26.32 versus a price of €25.30, about +4% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of ECMPM?
Our model-based fair value for Eurocommercial Properties N.V is €26.32 (as of Sep 28, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €25.30.
What is the quality score of ECMPM?
Eurocommercial Properties N.V has a Quality Score of 57/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Eurocommercial Properties N.V (ECMPM)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €26.32 (as of Sep 28, 2026) from 14 valuation models. Cautious scenario €19.64, optimistic scenario €28.20. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Eurocommercial Properties N.V stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €26.32, about +4% upside versus a price of €25.30 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario €19.64, optimistic scenario €28.20. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Eurocommercial Properties N.V (ECMPM)?
Eurocommercial Properties N.V reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €292M (latest available figure, as of Sep 28, 2026).
Does Eurocommercial Properties N.V pay a dividend?
Eurocommercial Properties N.V currently shows a dividend yield of about 4.39% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 28, 2026).
What growth is priced into Eurocommercial Properties N.V (ECMPM)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Eurocommercial Properties N.V would have to grow free cash flow by +28.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 4 years revenue grew +3.6 % per year. As of Sep 28, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of ECMPM use?
Our models discount Eurocommercial Properties N.V at 12.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.78, country premium for Italy. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Eurocommercial Properties N.V that is +28.0 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (12.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Eurocommercial Properties N.V (ECMPM) delivered so far?
Over the past 4 years revenue at Eurocommercial Properties N.V grew +3.6 % a year. The price currently implies +28.0 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Eurocommercial Properties N.V (ECMPM) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +1.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Eurocommercial Properties N.V (+28.0 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Eurocommercial Properties N.V (ECMPM)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 5.96 %: that much free cash flow Eurocommercial Properties N.V produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Eurocommercial Properties N.V (ECMPM)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Eurocommercial Properties N.V it is €26.32 per share (as of Sep 28, 2026), against a price of €25.30. It is the blended result of 14 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Eurocommercial Properties N.V stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 28, 2026, ECMPM trades below its calculated fair value: price €25.30, fair value €26.32, a gap of about +4% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ECMPM?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€25.30); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€26.32). For Eurocommercial Properties N.V the two are €1.02 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Eurocommercial Properties N.V worth?
The market values Eurocommercial Properties N.V at about €1.4B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 28, 2026). Per share that is €25.30; our models calculate a fair value of €26.32 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ECMPM?
Our models span a range for Eurocommercial Properties N.V: cautious scenario €19.64, base €26.32, optimistic €28.20 per share (as of Sep 28, 2026, price €25.30). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How far is ECMPM from its 52-week high?
Eurocommercial Properties N.V trades at €25.30, about 14% below its 52-week high of €29.40 and 6% above the low of €23.91 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €26.32 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Eurocommercial Properties N.V?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value Simon Property Group, Realty Income Corporation, Kimco Realty Corporation, Unibail-Rodamco-Westfield SE, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Eurocommercial Properties N.V stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 28, 2026: price €25.30, calculated fair value €26.32 (+4%), Quality Score 57/100, from 14 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ECMPM calculated?
We run Eurocommercial Properties N.V through 14 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €26.32, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Eurocommercial Properties N.V currently trades 4 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Eurocommercial Properties N.V (ECMPM)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was €25.30. Our model-based fair value is €26.32, about +4% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Eurocommercial Properties N.V right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Key figures of Eurocommercial Properties N.V
How large is the market capitalisation of Eurocommercial Properties N.V (ECMPM)?
The market capitalisation of Eurocommercial Properties N.V is €1.4B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/E ratio of Eurocommercial Properties N.V (ECMPM)?
The price-to-earnings ratio of Eurocommercial Properties N.V is 8.7. Price to earnings: how many years of current profit you pay for the stock. A P/E of 10 means ten years of profit.
What is the P/S ratio of Eurocommercial Properties N.V (ECMPM)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Eurocommercial Properties N.V is 3.93 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Eurocommercial Properties N.V (ECMPM)?
Earnings per share at Eurocommercial Properties N.V are €2.92 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 8.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Eurocommercial Properties N.V (ECMPM)?
The dividend yield of Eurocommercial Properties N.V is 4.4% (payout 38.0%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Eurocommercial Properties N.V (ECMPM)?
The net margin of Eurocommercial Properties N.V is 45.4% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Eurocommercial Properties N.V (ECMPM)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Eurocommercial Properties N.V is 7.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Eurocommercial Properties N.V (ECMPM)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Eurocommercial Properties N.V is 4.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Eurocommercial Properties N.V (ECMPM)?
The operating margin of Eurocommercial Properties N.V is 69.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Eurocommercial Properties N.V (ECMPM)?
Revenue at Eurocommercial Properties N.V is growing +8.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +4.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Eurocommercial Properties N.V (ECMPM)?
Earnings per share at Eurocommercial Properties N.V are growing +511% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Eurocommercial Properties N.V (ECMPM) carry?
The net debt of Eurocommercial Properties N.V is €1.5B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 18.4 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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