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EDAG Engineering Group (ED4) Fair Value & Analysis

Consumer Cyclical · DE · Market cap €77.7M

EE EDAG Engineering Group ED4 · XETRA
Price€3.13
Fair Value€4.90
Upside+56.4%
Quality38/100
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Weak Growth
Loss-making · -6.3% net margin
Moderate debt · negative free cash flow
Trails peers (4/11)
Narrow moat 13/100
Evidence: Low Range €3.25 – €10.09 Share as image

Fair value as of: Jul 13, 2026

From 2 valuation models · updated 28 days ago

Fair value updated Jul 13, 2026, revised from €2.67 to €4.90 (+83.4%) since Jun 25, 2026. Share price +2.3% over the past month.

Below-average quality, screening 56% undervalued on our models.

What matters now

  • The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (38/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain.
  • The price is below even our cautious bear case (€3.25). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
  • The model range is unusually wide (€3.25 to €10.09). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
  • The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

€13.22 €2.98 Fair Value €4.90 Jun 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range €2.98 – €13.22 · fair‑value band €3.25 – €10.09 · the €3.13 price screens below the €4.90 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 13, 2026.

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Analysis

EDAG Engineering Group (ED4) currently trades at €3.13, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €4.90, implying the stock looks roughly 56.4% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 38/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: low), always confirm before acting.

Over the trailing twelve months, EDAG Engineering Group generated revenue of €694M at a net margin of -6.3%. Revenue declined 10.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -39.4%. Net debt stands at €216M. Fundamentals as of Jul 13, 2026

Our scenario range runs from €3.25 (bear case) to €10.09 (bull case); at €3.13, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 58% below its 52-week high, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at -44% fair-value upside, at 56%, ED4 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model Bear Bear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull Bull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
EV/EBITDA €7.60 €10.43 €13.26 54
NCAV (Graham) €1.77 €2.37 €3.54 50
All 2 models by family
Multiples
EV/EBITDA €7.60 €10.43 €13.26 54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) €1.77 €2.37 €3.54 50

Widest divergence: Multiples (€10.43) versus Asset-Based (€2.37). Highest evidence: EV/EBITDA (54).

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Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) €694M
Revenue growth (YoY) -10.3%
Net margin -6.3%
Return on equity -39.4%
Free cash flow −€22.9M FY2025
Operating margin -1.4%
More key figures
EPS (TTM) €-1.74
EPS growth (YoY) -44.7%
Net debt €216M FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 38/100

Of which business quality 35 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 31

Profitability 22
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 25
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 5
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 19
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 100
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 75
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 17
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 2
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 82
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

EDAG Engineering Group AG engages in the development of vehicles, derivatives, modules, and production facilities for the automotive and commercial vehicle industries worldwide. The company operates through three segments: Vehicle Engineering, Electrics/Electronics, and Production Solutions segments.

Full company description

EDAG Engineering Group AG engages in the development of vehicles, derivatives, modules, and production facilities for the automotive and commercial vehicle industries worldwide. The company operates through three segments: Vehicle Engineering, Electrics/Electronics, and Production Solutions segments. The Vehicle Engineering segment offers vehicle development services, including package and ergonomics, body assembly, surface design, and interior and exterior development services; vehicle integration services; test vehicles, sub-assemblies, vehicle bodies, and individual vehicle conversions; hydrogen storage systems; project management; and after sales services. Its Electrics/Electronics segment is involved in the development of electrical and electronic systems and functions; integration and validation; development of hardware and software components; and process and data management. The Production Solutions segment engages in automotive solutions comprising planning and virtual commissioning; industrial solutions, such as the development of production solutions; and smart city solutions. It serves automotive and bikes, commercial and off-road-vehicles, defense, medical and pharma, energy, and industrial sectors. The company was founded in 1969 and is based in Arbon, Switzerland. EDAG Engineering Group AG operates as a subsidiary of Aton Austria Holding GmbH.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

EDAG Engineering Group reported revenue of €714M in FY2025 versus €710M in FY2021, a compound +0.1%/yr. Reported net income was −€43.6M in FY2025.

Growth Quality 9/100
Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
€714M
Latest YoY
−13.2%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−4.6%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+1.8%
Avg. growth/yr (13Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+4.2%
Revenue +0.1%/yr
FY21 €710M
FY22 €822M
FY23 €845M
FY24 €822M
FY25 €714M
Net income
FY21 €11.4M
FY22 €28.9M
FY23 €28.9M
FY24 −€14.4M
FY25 −€43.6M

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "EDAG Engineering Group Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ED4

Peer Group

Auto Parts · 642 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 35 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside +56% · Top 25%
Return on assets -2% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM) -6% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) -1% · Bottom 25%
Revenue growth -10% · Bottom 25%
Debt / equity 0.74× · Higher than 75% of peers

Valuation Multiples vs Auto Parts median · lower = cheaper

P/B 1.01× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM) 0.13× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
PEG 0.80× · Cheaper than median

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 100 · sector 16
FUTURE 0 · sector 23
PAST 0 · sector 26
HEALTH 63 · sector 95
DIVIDEND 0 · sector 30

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

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Frequently asked questions

Is EDAG Engineering Group (ED4) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jul 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €4.90 versus a price of €3.13, about +56% (undervalued).
What is the fair value of ED4?
Our model-based fair value for EDAG Engineering Group is €4.90 (as of Jul 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is €3.13.
What is the quality score of ED4?
EDAG Engineering Group has a Quality Score of 38/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of EDAG Engineering Group (ED4)?
EDAG Engineering Group reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €694M (latest available figure, as of Jul 13, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of ED4?
The net profit margin of EDAG Engineering Group is about -6.3%, meaning it is currently running at a net loss. Based on the latest reported figures.

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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