Ege Gubre Sanayi AS (EGGUB) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Ege Gubre Sanayi AS TRY 60.28, price TRY 101, upside -40.4%, quality 53 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 4, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 13.61 TRY – 142.20 TRY · fair‑value band 58.55 TRY – 63.56 TRY · the 101.10 TRY price screens above the 60.28 TRY fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 4, 2026.
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Ege Gübre Sanayii A.S. primarily provides port services. The company operates through Chemical Fertilizers and Port Services segments.
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Ege Gübre Sanayii A.S. primarily provides port services. The company operates through Chemical Fertilizers and Port Services segments. It offers port services, including container handling, storage, container stuffing/unloading, container repair/cleaning, yard stacking, and OFFDOCK services; loading and terminal services; terminal management services; and insurance brokerage services. The company also provides compound, supply, and specialized fertilizers, as well as organic solvents. Ege Gübre Sanayii A.S. was incorporated in 1973 and is headquartered in Izmir, Turkey.
Stock analysis
Ege Gubre Sanayi AS (EGGUB) currently trades at 101.10 TRY, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 60.28 TRY, 40.4% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of 202.97 TRY per share, and 12 of the 25 models we run sit above the 101.10 TRY price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at 23.00 TRY, and 13 of the 25 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: 58.55 TRY (bear) to 63.56 TRY (bull), the price of 101.10 TRY sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 53/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Ege Gubre Sanayi AS reported revenue of 3.6B TRY in FY2025 versus 829M TRY in FY2021, a compound +44.3%/yr. Reported net income was 715M TRY in FY2025, compounding +56.9%/yr from FY2021. FY2021 was a trough year, so the rate overstates the trend.
Key figures
Market cap 10.1B TRY (≈ $206M) · P/E ratio 14.1 · P/S ratio 2.81 · EPS (TTM) 7.15 TRY · Dividend yield 2.1% · Net margin 19.9% · Return on equity 7.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 17.0%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 29% below its 52-week high and 19% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 59% fair-value upside, at −40%, EGGUB screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 58.55 TRYFair Value 60.28 TRYBull 63.56 TRY
Price 101.10 TRY · Upside -40.4%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (5.45 TRY per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+9.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+42.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+37.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +30.5% a year
Revenue growth 18 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+20.3%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in TRY ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in TRY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
−4.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−6.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.1%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.19% → 33%
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 2.8%/yr over ~6Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+34.8%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Turkey: IMF forecast 19.3% a year to 2030, 28.5% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +13.0% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Marine Shipping · 228 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score53 · Below median
Fair Value upside−40.4% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)7.6% · Below median
Return on assets7.7% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)17.6% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)31.5% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth21.8% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)2.1% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.10× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Marine Shipping median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)14.1× · Pricier than median
P/B1.18× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM)2.70× · Pricier than median
P/FCF30.4× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA5.5× · Cheaper than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 35
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 56
PAST (return on equity)30· sector 32
HEALTH (low debt)95· sector 89
DIVIDEND (yield)41· sector 52
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Ege Gubre Sanayi AS Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/EGGUB
Frequently asked questions
Is Ege Gubre Sanayi AS (EGGUB) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 4, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 60.28 TRY versus a price of 101.10 TRY, about −40% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of EGGUB?
Our model-based fair value for Ege Gubre Sanayi AS is 60.28 TRY (as of Oct 4, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 101.10 TRY.
What is the quality score of EGGUB?
Ege Gubre Sanayi AS has a Quality Score of 53/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Ege Gubre Sanayi AS (EGGUB)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 60.28 TRY (as of Oct 4, 2026) from 25 valuation models. Cautious scenario 58.55 TRY, optimistic scenario 63.56 TRY. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Ege Gubre Sanayi AS stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 60.28 TRY, about −40% upside versus a price of 101.10 TRY (overvalued). Cautious scenario 58.55 TRY, optimistic scenario 63.56 TRY. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Ege Gubre Sanayi AS (EGGUB)?
Ege Gubre Sanayi AS reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 3.7B TRY (latest available figure, as of Oct 4, 2026).
Does Ege Gubre Sanayi AS pay a dividend?
Ege Gubre Sanayi AS currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.06% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 4, 2026).
What growth is priced into Ege Gubre Sanayi AS (EGGUB)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Ege Gubre Sanayi AS would have to grow free cash flow by +34.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 17.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +37.4 % per year. As of Oct 4, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of EGGUB use?
Our models discount Ege Gubre Sanayi AS at 17.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), country premium for Turkey. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Ege Gubre Sanayi AS that is +34.8 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (17.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Ege Gubre Sanayi AS (EGGUB) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Ege Gubre Sanayi AS grew +37.4 % a year. The price currently implies +34.8 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Ege Gubre Sanayi AS (EGGUB) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.1 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Ege Gubre Sanayi AS (+34.8 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Ege Gubre Sanayi AS (EGGUB)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.29 %: that much free cash flow Ege Gubre Sanayi AS produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (17.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Ege Gubre Sanayi AS (EGGUB)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Ege Gubre Sanayi AS it is 60.28 TRY per share (as of Oct 4, 2026), against a price of 101.10 TRY. It is the blended result of 25 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Ege Gubre Sanayi AS stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 4, 2026, EGGUB trades above its calculated fair value: price 101.10 TRY, fair value 60.28 TRY, a gap of about −40% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of EGGUB?
No. The price is what the market pays today (101.10 TRY); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (60.28 TRY). For Ege Gubre Sanayi AS the two are 40.82 TRY per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Ege Gubre Sanayi AS worth?
The market values Ege Gubre Sanayi AS at about 10.1B TRY (market capitalisation, as of Oct 4, 2026). Per share that is 101.10 TRY; our models calculate a fair value of 60.28 TRY per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about EGGUB?
Our models span a range for Ege Gubre Sanayi AS: cautious scenario 58.55 TRY, base 60.28 TRY, optimistic 63.56 TRY per share (as of Oct 4, 2026, price 101.10 TRY). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of EGGUB?
Ege Gubre Sanayi AS trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 14.1 (as of Oct 4, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 60.28 TRY is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.2, P/S 2.7, EV/EBITDA 5.5.
How solid is the balance sheet of Ege Gubre Sanayi AS (EGGUB)?
Balance-sheet figures for Ege Gubre Sanayi AS (as of Oct 4, 2026): return on equity 7.6%, debt of 0.10 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 53/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is EGGUB from its 52-week high?
Ege Gubre Sanayi AS trades at 101.10 TRY, about 29% below its 52-week high of 142.20 TRY and 19% above the low of 85.29 TRY (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 60.28 TRY is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Ege Gubre Sanayi AS?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone Limited, COSCO SHIPPING Holdings, Hapag-Lloyd Aktiengesellschaft,, Shanghai International Port (Group) Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Ege Gubre Sanayi AS stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 4, 2026: price 101.10 TRY, calculated fair value 60.28 TRY (−40%), Quality Score 53/100, from 25 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of EGGUB calculated?
We run Ege Gubre Sanayi AS through 25 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 60.28 TRY, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Ege Gubre Sanayi AS itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Ege Gubre Sanayi AS (EGGUB)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was 101.10 TRY. Our model-based fair value is 60.28 TRY, about −40% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Ege Gubre Sanayi AS right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (63.56 TRY). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (53/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. The models converge in a tight band (58.55 TRY to 63.56 TRY), unusually little disagreement for a valuation.
Key figures of Ege Gubre Sanayi AS
How large is the market capitalisation of Ege Gubre Sanayi AS (EGGUB)?
The market capitalisation of Ege Gubre Sanayi AS is 10.1B TRY (≈ $206M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Ege Gubre Sanayi AS (EGGUB)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Ege Gubre Sanayi AS is 2.81 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Ege Gubre Sanayi AS (EGGUB)?
Earnings per share at Ege Gubre Sanayi AS are 7.15 TRY (price ÷ EPS = P/E 14.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Ege Gubre Sanayi AS (EGGUB)?
The dividend yield of Ege Gubre Sanayi AS is 2.1% (payout 29.1%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Ege Gubre Sanayi AS (EGGUB)?
The net margin of Ege Gubre Sanayi AS is 19.9% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Ege Gubre Sanayi AS (EGGUB)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Ege Gubre Sanayi AS is 7.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Ege Gubre Sanayi AS (EGGUB)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Ege Gubre Sanayi AS is 17.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Ege Gubre Sanayi AS (EGGUB)?
The operating margin of Ege Gubre Sanayi AS is 31.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Ege Gubre Sanayi AS (EGGUB)?
Revenue at Ege Gubre Sanayi AS is growing +21.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +42.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Ege Gubre Sanayi AS (EGGUB)?
Earnings per share at Ege Gubre Sanayi AS are growing −21.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Ege Gubre Sanayi AS (EGGUB) carry?
The net debt of Ege Gubre Sanayi AS is 76.1M TRY (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 0.2 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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