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Embraer S.A (EMBJ3) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Embraer S.A BRL 57.88, price BRL 98.25, upside -41.1%, quality 51 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? Yes
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Industrials · BR · ISIN US29082A1079

ES Broad data Sep 23, 2026

Embraer S.A

EMBJ3 · SA

Stretched ValuationStrong overvaluation with only moderate quality.

!Fair value R$57.88 · Strongly overvalued (−41.1%)
!Quality 51/100
✓Healthy Growth (revenue 5y +16.4 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 3.9% net margin (TTM)
✓Moderate debt · generates free cash flow
✓0.7% dividend yield · Well covered
!Narrow moat 38/100

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

R$103.95 R$10.73 Fair Value R$57.88 Jul 2021 Oct 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range R$10.73 – R$103.95 · fair‑value band R$43.21 – R$75.25 · the R$98.25 price screens above the R$57.88 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

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Company profile

Embraer S.A., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the design, development, manufacture, and sale of aircraft and systems worldwide. The company operates through Commercial Aviation; Defense & Security; Executive Aviation; Services & Support; and Other segments. The Commercial Aviation segment develops, produces, and sells commercial jets.

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Embraer S.A., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the design, development, manufacture, and sale of aircraft and systems worldwide. The company operates through Commercial Aviation; Defense & Security; Executive Aviation; Services & Support; and Other segments. The Commercial Aviation segment develops, produces, and sells commercial jets. The Defense & Security segment develops and produces military aircraft; and is involved in research and development of software and integrated information systems, communications, border monitoring and surveillance, space systems/satellites, and aircraft modernization services and services support, as well as command, control, communications, computer, intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance systems. The Executive Aviation segment develops, produces, and sells executive jets. The Service & Support segment provides field and technical support, flight operations solutions, aircraft modification, materials management, maintenance solutions, and training programs. The Other segment engages in the supply of structural parts and hydraulic systems; production of agricultural crop-spraying aircraft; development and certification of eVTOLs; creation of a maintenance and service network, and air traffic control system for eVTOLs; development and manufacture of electrical propulsion systems; cybersecurity; and software and technical products. Additionally, the company is involved in leasing of used aircraft; pilot, mechanic, and crew training; engineering services; retail trade, maintenance, and repair of computer products; information technology consulting, data processing, application service providers, and internet hosting; and fabrication of aircraft interiors. The company was formerly known as Embraer-Empresa Brasileira de Aeronáutica S.A. and changed its name to Embraer S.A. in November 2010. Embraer S.A. was founded in 1969 and is headquartered in São Paulo, Brazil.

Stock analysis

Embraer S.A (EMBJ3) currently trades at R$98.25, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is R$57.88, 41.1% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of R$100.28 per share, and 7 of the 26 models we run sit above the R$98.25 price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at R$17.74, and 19 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Scenario range: R$43.21 (bear) to R$75.25 (bull), the price of R$98.25 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 51/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.

Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.

Embraer S.A reported revenue of R$41.9B in FY2025 versus R$22.7B in FY2021, a compound +16.6%/yr. Reported net income was R$2.0B in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap R$72.0B (≈ $13.8B) · P/E ratio 44.5 · P/S ratio 2.07 · EPS (TTM) R$2.21 · Dividend yield 0.7% · Net margin 4.7% · Return on equity 8.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 9.0%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 47 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 5% below its 52-week high and 44% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −24% fair-value upside, at −41%, EMBJ3 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear R$43.21 Fair Value R$57.88 Bull R$75.25
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (R$1.13 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF R$83.25 R$165.20 R$316.59 76
Residual Income R$23.45 R$26.31 R$35.97 76
Growth DCF R$81.62 R$154.07 R$282.16 75
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF R$83.25 R$165.20 R$316.59 76
Owner Earnings R$62.33 R$124.75 R$239.80 72
5Y Revenue Exit R$49.52 R$86.18 R$135.87 71
5Y EBITDA Exit R$62.33 R$113.74 R$179.40 73
5Y P/E Exit R$50.85 R$89.04 R$133.31 70
10Y Revenue Exit R$58.48 R$98.13 R$159.62 65
10Y EBITDA Exit R$68.52 R$118.83 R$197.62 66
10Y P/E Exit R$60.77 R$100.28 R$157.38 63
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd R$18.66 R$99.52 R$137.86 63
Lynch FV R$27.46 R$39.23 R$51.00 61
PEG = 1.0 R$27.46 R$39.23 R$51.00 57
EPV R$32.02 R$38.05 R$43.33 74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM R$1.69 R$3.51 R$5.57 66
DDM Multi-Stage R$1.69 R$2.96 R$3.68 67
Multiples
P/E Multiple R$43.21 R$57.61 R$72.02 63
P/S Multiple R$34.98 R$46.64 R$58.30 58
P/B Multiple R$34.98 R$46.64 R$58.30 55
EV/EBIT R$49.66 R$67.60 R$85.54 66
EV/EBITDA R$56.73 R$77.03 R$97.33 67
EV/Revenue R$34.25 R$50.71 R$67.18 53
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) R$13.24 R$17.74 R$26.48 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF R$81.62 R$154.07 R$282.16 75
Rev-Margin DCF R$49.52 R$85.63 R$134.50 71
Economic Profit
Residual Income R$23.45 R$26.31 R$35.97 76
ROIC Compounder R$35.15 R$51.06 R$67.59 71
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E R$40.52 R$57.88 R$75.25 67

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 51/100

Of which business quality 52 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 66

Profitability 32
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 66
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 65
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 38
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 32
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 66
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 62
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 72
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 84
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 90/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+18.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+21.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+16.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +7.5% a year
Revenue growth 26 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.8%
What shareholders gained per year (last 3 years), in BRL ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 3 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in BRL: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+36.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+35.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.7%
Profit margin 2021 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.6% → 7%

Growth Forecast

Price in line with expectations
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+14.4%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Brazil: IMF forecast 3.3% a year to 2030, 5.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +10.8% a year for the price.

EMBJ3 screens overvalued: fair value 41% below the price. Compare with General Electric Company →

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Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

Weapons Defense

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Embraer S.A Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/EMBJ3

Frequently asked questions

Is Embraer S.A (EMBJ3) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of R$57.88 versus a price of R$98.25, about −41% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of EMBJ3?
Our model-based fair value for Embraer S.A is R$57.88 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: R$98.25.
What is the quality score of EMBJ3?
Embraer S.A has a Quality Score of 51/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Embraer S.A (EMBJ3)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of R$57.88 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario R$43.21, optimistic scenario R$75.25. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Embraer S.A stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at R$57.88, about −41% upside versus a price of R$98.25 (overvalued). Cautious scenario R$43.21, optimistic scenario R$75.25. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Embraer S.A (EMBJ3)?
Embraer S.A reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about R$43.1B (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does Embraer S.A pay a dividend?
Embraer S.A currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.73% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into Embraer S.A (EMBJ3)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Embraer S.A would have to grow free cash flow by +14.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.4 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +16.4 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of EMBJ3 use?
Our models discount Embraer S.A at 11.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.72, country premium for Brazil. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Embraer S.A that is +14.4 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.4 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Embraer S.A (EMBJ3) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Embraer S.A grew +16.4 % a year. The price currently implies +14.4 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Embraer S.A (EMBJ3) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Embraer S.A (+14.4 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Embraer S.A (EMBJ3)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 4.78 %: that much free cash flow Embraer S.A produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.4 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Embraer S.A (EMBJ3)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Embraer S.A it is R$57.88 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of R$98.25. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Embraer S.A stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, EMBJ3 trades above its calculated fair value: price R$98.25, fair value R$57.88, a gap of about −41% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of EMBJ3?
No. The price is what the market pays today (R$98.25); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (R$57.88). For Embraer S.A the two are R$40.37 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Embraer S.A worth?
The market values Embraer S.A at about R$72.0B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is R$98.25; our models calculate a fair value of R$57.88 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about EMBJ3?
Our models span a range for Embraer S.A: cautious scenario R$43.21, base R$57.88, optimistic R$75.25 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price R$98.25). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How far is EMBJ3 from its 52-week high?
Embraer S.A trades at R$98.25, about 5% below its 52-week high of R$103.95 and 44% above the low of R$68.40 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of R$57.88 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Embraer S.A?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value General Electric Company, RTX Corporation, Airbus SE, Lockheed Martin Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Embraer S.A stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price R$98.25, calculated fair value R$57.88 (−41%), Quality Score 51/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of EMBJ3 calculated?
We run Embraer S.A through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of R$57.88, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Embraer S.A itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Embraer S.A (EMBJ3)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was R$98.25. Our model-based fair value is R$57.88, about −41% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Embraer S.A right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (R$75.25). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (51/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Where does the earnings growth of Embraer S.A (EMBJ3) come from?
Earnings per share at Embraer S.A grew +12.5 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +6.9 %, EBIT margin −2.6 %, tax rate +4.5 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +3.3 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of Embraer S.A

How large is the market capitalisation of Embraer S.A (EMBJ3)?
The market capitalisation of Embraer S.A is R$72.0B (≈ $13.8B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/E ratio of Embraer S.A (EMBJ3)?
The price-to-earnings ratio of Embraer S.A is 44.5. Price to earnings: how many years of current profit you pay for the stock. A P/E of 10 means ten years of profit.
What is the P/S ratio of Embraer S.A (EMBJ3)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Embraer S.A is 2.07 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Embraer S.A (EMBJ3)?
Earnings per share at Embraer S.A are R$2.21 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 44.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Embraer S.A (EMBJ3)?
The dividend yield of Embraer S.A is 0.7% (payout 32.4%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Embraer S.A (EMBJ3)?
The net margin of Embraer S.A is 4.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Embraer S.A (EMBJ3)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Embraer S.A is 8.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Embraer S.A (EMBJ3)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Embraer S.A is 9.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Embraer S.A (EMBJ3)?
The operating margin of Embraer S.A is 5.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Embraer S.A (EMBJ3)?
Revenue at Embraer S.A is growing +18.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg +21.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Embraer S.A (EMBJ3)?
Earnings per share at Embraer S.A are growing −58.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Embraer S.A (EMBJ3) carry?
The net debt of Embraer S.A is R$4.2B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 1.2 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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