Erbosan Erciyas Boru Sanayi Ve Ticaret AS (ERBOS) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 22, 2026: fair value of Erbosan Erciyas Boru Sanayi Ve Ticaret AS TRY 232, price TRY 125, upside +86.2%, quality 49 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 81.53 TRY – 304.94 TRY · fair‑value band 163.67 TRY – 351.67 TRY · the 124.70 TRY price screens below the 232.21 TRY fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.
Erbosan Erciyas Boru Sanayii ve Ticaret A.S. produces and sells carbon steel tubes and pipes in Turkey.
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Erbosan Erciyas Boru Sanayii ve Ticaret A.S. produces and sells carbon steel tubes and pipes in Turkey. It offers welded steel black and galvanized water and gas pipes for use in building heating, mechanical installations, and plumbing and ventilation systems; gas and line pipes used in LPG installation, and boiler tubes for drilling lines, as well as natural gas, petroleum, and gas line projects; and sprinkler pipes that are used for sprinkler systems and fire protection. The company also provides industrial tubes and hollow sections for use in automotive, home appliances, furniture, greenhouse, construction, and transportation industries, as well as fence, industry and building, textile, and solar energy systems. In addition, it offers square, rectangular hollow sections and low-pressure boiler and steam pipes. Erbosan Erciyas Boru Sanayii ve Ticaret A.S. was incorporated in 1974 and is headquartered in Kayseri, Turkey.
Stock analysis
Erbosan Erciyas Boru Sanayi Ve Ticaret AS (ERBOS) currently trades at 124.70 TRY, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 232.21 TRY, implying the stock looks roughly 46.3% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of 375.82 TRY per share, and 12 of the 13 models we run sit above the 124.70 TRY price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at 117.65 TRY, and 1 of the 13 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: 163.67 TRY (bear) to 351.67 TRY (bull), the price of 124.70 TRY sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 49/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Erbosan Erciyas Boru Sanayi Ve Ticaret AS reported revenue of 5.6B TRY in FY2025 versus 1.3B TRY in FY2021, a compound +44.0%/yr. Reported net income was −130M TRY in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap 3.1B TRY (≈ $63.8M) · P/S ratio 0.57 · EPS (TTM) −0.7600 TRY · Dividend yield 2.2% · Net margin −2.3% · Return on equity −0.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 14.7% · Operating margin 3.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 44% below its 52-week high, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −35% fair-value upside, at 86%, ERBOS screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 163.67 TRYFair Value 232.21 TRYBull 351.67 TRY
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.56/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−5.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+31.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+57.7%
Revenue growth 20 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+22.6%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
11.8% (2020) → 5.5% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+10.4%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
Compare Erbosan Erciyas Boru Sanayi Ve Ticaret AS with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Metal Fabrication · 260 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/9 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score49 · Below median
Fair Value upside+60% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on assets4% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)0% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)3% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−6% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)2.2% · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Metal Fabrication median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Erbosan Erciyas Boru Sanayi Ve Ticaret AS Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ERBOS
Frequently asked questions
Is Erbosan Erciyas Boru Sanayi Ve Ticaret AS (ERBOS) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 232.21 TRY versus a price of 124.70 TRY, about +86% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of ERBOS?
Our model-based fair value for Erbosan Erciyas Boru Sanayi Ve Ticaret AS is 232.21 TRY (as of Sep 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 124.70 TRY.
What is the quality score of ERBOS?
Erbosan Erciyas Boru Sanayi Ve Ticaret AS has a Quality Score of 49/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Erbosan Erciyas Boru Sanayi Ve Ticaret AS (ERBOS)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 232.21 TRY (as of Sep 13, 2026) from 13 valuation models. Cautious scenario 163.67 TRY, optimistic scenario 351.67 TRY. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Erbosan Erciyas Boru Sanayi Ve Ticaret AS stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 232.21 TRY, about +86% upside versus a price of 124.70 TRY (undervalued). Cautious scenario 163.67 TRY, optimistic scenario 351.67 TRY. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Erbosan Erciyas Boru Sanayi Ve Ticaret AS (ERBOS)?
Erbosan Erciyas Boru Sanayi Ve Ticaret AS reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 5.5B TRY (latest available figure, as of Sep 13, 2026).
Does Erbosan Erciyas Boru Sanayi Ve Ticaret AS pay a dividend?
Erbosan Erciyas Boru Sanayi Ve Ticaret AS currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.17% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 13, 2026).
What growth is priced into Erbosan Erciyas Boru Sanayi Ve Ticaret AS (ERBOS)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Erbosan Erciyas Boru Sanayi Ve Ticaret AS would have to grow free cash flow by +10.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 17.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +57.7 % per year. As of Sep 13, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of ERBOS use?
Our models discount Erbosan Erciyas Boru Sanayi Ve Ticaret AS at 17.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), country premium for Turkey. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Erbosan Erciyas Boru Sanayi Ve Ticaret AS that is +10.4 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (17.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Erbosan Erciyas Boru Sanayi Ve Ticaret AS (ERBOS) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Erbosan Erciyas Boru Sanayi Ve Ticaret AS grew +57.7 % a year. The price currently implies +10.4 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Erbosan Erciyas Boru Sanayi Ve Ticaret AS (ERBOS) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.4 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Erbosan Erciyas Boru Sanayi Ve Ticaret AS (+10.4 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Erbosan Erciyas Boru Sanayi Ve Ticaret AS (ERBOS)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 11.50 %: that much free cash flow Erbosan Erciyas Boru Sanayi Ve Ticaret AS produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (17.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Erbosan Erciyas Boru Sanayi Ve Ticaret AS (ERBOS)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Erbosan Erciyas Boru Sanayi Ve Ticaret AS it is 232.21 TRY per share (as of Sep 13, 2026), against a price of 124.70 TRY. It is the blended result of 13 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Erbosan Erciyas Boru Sanayi Ve Ticaret AS stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 13, 2026, ERBOS trades below its calculated fair value: price 124.70 TRY, fair value 232.21 TRY, a gap of about +86% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ERBOS?
No. The price is what the market pays today (124.70 TRY); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (232.21 TRY). For Erbosan Erciyas Boru Sanayi Ve Ticaret AS the two are 107.51 TRY per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Erbosan Erciyas Boru Sanayi Ve Ticaret AS worth?
The market values Erbosan Erciyas Boru Sanayi Ve Ticaret AS at about 3.1B TRY (market capitalisation, as of Sep 13, 2026). Per share that is 124.70 TRY; our models calculate a fair value of 232.21 TRY per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ERBOS?
Our models span a range for Erbosan Erciyas Boru Sanayi Ve Ticaret AS: cautious scenario 163.67 TRY, base 232.21 TRY, optimistic 351.67 TRY per share (as of Sep 13, 2026, price 124.70 TRY). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Erbosan Erciyas Boru Sanayi Ve Ticaret AS (ERBOS)?
Balance-sheet figures for Erbosan Erciyas Boru Sanayi Ve Ticaret AS (as of Sep 13, 2026): return on equity −0.5%. They feed the Quality Score of 49/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ERBOS from its 52-week high?
Erbosan Erciyas Boru Sanayi Ve Ticaret AS trades at 124.70 TRY, about 44% below its 52-week high of 222.74 TRY (as of Sep 13, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 232.21 TRY is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Erbosan Erciyas Boru Sanayi Ve Ticaret AS?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Carpenter Technology Corporation, ATI Inc, Mueller Industries, Inc, Aurubis AG, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Erbosan Erciyas Boru Sanayi Ve Ticaret AS stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 13, 2026: price 124.70 TRY, calculated fair value 232.21 TRY (+86%), Quality Score 49/100, from 13 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ERBOS calculated?
We run Erbosan Erciyas Boru Sanayi Ve Ticaret AS through 13 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 232.21 TRY, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 16.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Erbosan Erciyas Boru Sanayi Ve Ticaret AS currently trades 86 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Erbosan Erciyas Boru Sanayi Ve Ticaret AS (ERBOS)?
The closing price on Sep 22, 2026 was 124.70 TRY. Our model-based fair value is 232.21 TRY, about +86% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Erbosan Erciyas Boru Sanayi Ve Ticaret AS right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (163.67 TRY). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (49/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range (163.67 TRY to 351.67 TRY) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Erbosan Erciyas Boru Sanayi Ve Ticaret AS
How large is the market capitalisation of Erbosan Erciyas Boru Sanayi Ve Ticaret AS (ERBOS)?
The market capitalisation of Erbosan Erciyas Boru Sanayi Ve Ticaret AS is 3.1B TRY (≈ $63.8M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Erbosan Erciyas Boru Sanayi Ve Ticaret AS (ERBOS)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Erbosan Erciyas Boru Sanayi Ve Ticaret AS is 0.57 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Erbosan Erciyas Boru Sanayi Ve Ticaret AS (ERBOS)?
Earnings per share at Erbosan Erciyas Boru Sanayi Ve Ticaret AS are −0.7600 TRY. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Erbosan Erciyas Boru Sanayi Ve Ticaret AS (ERBOS)?
The dividend yield of Erbosan Erciyas Boru Sanayi Ve Ticaret AS is 2.2%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Erbosan Erciyas Boru Sanayi Ve Ticaret AS (ERBOS)?
The net margin of Erbosan Erciyas Boru Sanayi Ve Ticaret AS is −2.3% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Erbosan Erciyas Boru Sanayi Ve Ticaret AS (ERBOS)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Erbosan Erciyas Boru Sanayi Ve Ticaret AS is −0.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Erbosan Erciyas Boru Sanayi Ve Ticaret AS (ERBOS)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Erbosan Erciyas Boru Sanayi Ve Ticaret AS is 14.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Erbosan Erciyas Boru Sanayi Ve Ticaret AS (ERBOS)?
The operating margin of Erbosan Erciyas Boru Sanayi Ve Ticaret AS is 3.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Erbosan Erciyas Boru Sanayi Ve Ticaret AS (ERBOS)?
Revenue at Erbosan Erciyas Boru Sanayi Ve Ticaret AS is growing −6.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +31.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Erbosan Erciyas Boru Sanayi Ve Ticaret AS (ERBOS)?
Earnings per share at Erbosan Erciyas Boru Sanayi Ve Ticaret AS are growing −79.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Erbosan Erciyas Boru Sanayi Ve Ticaret AS (ERBOS) carry?
The net debt of Erbosan Erciyas Boru Sanayi Ve Ticaret AS is 359M TRY (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 1.3 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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