Empire State Realty Trust, Inc (ESRT) Fair Value & Analysis
Real Estate · US · Market cap $1.6B
Empire State Realty Trust, Inc
ESRT · US
Fair value as of: Jul 5, 2026
From 11 valuation models · updated 35 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 5, 2026, revised from $4.72 to $2.87 (−39.2%) since Jun 26, 2026. Share price −10.5% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 41% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($3.59). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (39/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 5, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $4.84 – $11.69 · fair‑value band $2.15 – $3.59 · the $4.84 price screens above the $2.87 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 5, 2026.
Analysis
Empire State Realty Trust, Inc (ESRT) currently trades at $4.84, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $2.87, implying the stock looks roughly 40.7% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 39/100 (below-average quality), in the Real Estate sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, Empire State Realty Trust, Inc generated revenue of $777M at a net margin of 5.1%. Revenue grew 4.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 3.3%. Net debt stands at $2.3B. Fundamentals as of Jul 5, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $2.15 (bear case) to $3.59 (bull case); at $4.84, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 43% below its 52-week high, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at -22% fair-value upside, at -41%, ESRT screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 11 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($3.99) versus Asset-Based ($2.63). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 5, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 40 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 21
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Empire State Realty Trust, Inc. is a NYC-focused REIT that owns and operates a portfolio of well-leased, modernized well-located offices and multifamily assets. ESRT's flagship Empire State Building, the (World's Most Famous Building) features its iconic Observatory. The Company is a recognized leader in energy efficiency and indoor environmental quality.
Full company description
Empire State Realty Trust, Inc. is a NYC-focused REIT that owns and operates a portfolio of well-leased, modernized well-located offices and multifamily assets. ESRT's flagship Empire State Building, the (World's Most Famous Building) features its iconic Observatory. The Company is a recognized leader in energy efficiency and indoor environmental quality. As of March 31, 2026, ESRT's portfolio is comprised of approximately 8.0 million rentable square feet of office space, 0.8 million rentable square feet of retail space and 743 residential units. Empire State Realty Trust, Inc. was established on July 29, 2011, and was incorporated in 2011 in Maryland and is based in New York.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Empire State Realty Trust, Inc reported revenue of $768M in FY2025 versus $608M in FY2021, a compound +6.0%/yr. Reported net income was $47.6M in FY2025.
ESRT screens 41% overvalued. Compare with Goodman Group →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Empire State Realty Trust declares $0.035 dividend
- Empire State Realty Trust Announces Dividend for Third Quarter 2026
- Empire State Realty Trust (ESRT) Could Be 22% Undervalued Following Its Shelf Filing
- Empire State Realty Trust Q2 Earnings Call Highlights
Peer Group
REIT - Diversified · 165 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs REIT - Diversified median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 30/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more REIT - Diversified stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 5, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goodman Group GMG | A$29.11 | A$7.37 | -75% |
| VICI Properties Inc VICI | $26.73 | $41.74 | +56% |
| W. P. Carey Inc WPC | $76.69 | $35.59 | -54% |
| Charter Hall Group CHC | A$21.90 | A$11.46 | -48% |
| Fibra Uno FUNO11 | 31.10 MXN | 63.56 MXN | +104% |
| COV COV | €52.55 | €62.39 | +19% |
| The GPT Group GPT | A$4.89 | A$3.49 | -29% |
| Mirvac Group MGR | A$1.70 | A$0.5700 | -66% |
| KLCC Property Holdings 5235SS | 8.85 MYR | 6.91 MYR | -22% |
| CRRUN CRRUN | C$17.65 | C$17.89 | +1% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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