Empire State Realty Trust Inc (ESRT) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Empire State Realty Trust Inc stock $3.01, price $5.31, that is 43.3% below the price, quality 41 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 16 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 4, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $3.93 – $10.96 · fair‑value band $2.04 – $3.76 · the $5.31 price screens above the $3.01 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 4, 2026.
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Empire State Realty Trust, Inc. is a NYC-focused REIT that owns and operates a portfolio of well-leased, modernized well-located offices and multifamily assets. ESRT's flagship Empire State Building, the (World's Most Famous Building) features its iconic Observatory.
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The Company is a recognized leader in energy efficiency and indoor environmental quality. As of March 31, 2026, ESRT's portfolio is comprised of approximately 8.0 million rentable square feet of office space, 0.8 million rentable square feet of retail space and 743 residential units.
Empire State Realty Trust, Inc. was established on July 29, 2011, and was incorporated in 2011 in Maryland and is based in New York.
Stock analysis
Empire State Realty Trust Inc (ESRT) currently trades at $5.31, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $3.01, 43% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $3.28 per share, and 2 of the 12 models we run sit above the $5.31 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $0.6600, and 10 of the 12 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $2.04 (bear) to $3.76 (bull), the price of $5.31 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 41/100 (below-average quality), in the Real Estate sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Empire State Realty Trust Inc reported revenue of $768M in FY2025 versus $608M in FY2021, a compound +6.0%/yr. Reported net income was $47.6M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $1.5B Small · P/S ratio 1.98 · EPS (TTM) $−0.0200 · Dividend yield 2.6% · Net margin 0.9% · Return on equity 0.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.0% (5-year average) · Operating margin 16.7%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 27% below its 52-week high and 35% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at 5% fair-value upside, at −43%, ESRT screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$2.04Fair Value $3.01Bull$3.76
Price $5.31 · Downside -43.3%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, no officer or director bought or sold shares on the open market.
Plus one other filing such as a grant, option exercise or tax withholding. It is not a market purchase or sale.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.57/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+0.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +1.6% a year
Revenue growth 17 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.4%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
+26.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+23.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.6%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.0.5% vs 3.1%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.10% → 18%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+42.3%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
−0.6%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +39.0% a year for the price and −3.0% for the forecasts.
Compare Empire State Realty Trust Inc with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.REIT - Diversified · 138 stocks
Beats the industry median on 2/14 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score41 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−43.3% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)0.5% · Below median
Return on assets1.6% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)1.4% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months)16.7% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)3.2% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)2.6% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.78× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs REIT - Diversified median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Empire State Realty Trust Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ESRT
Frequently asked questions
Is Empire State Realty Trust Inc (ESRT) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 4, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $3.01 versus a price of $5.31, about 43% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of ESRT?
Our model-based fair value for Empire State Realty Trust Inc is $3.01 (as of Nov 4, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $5.31.
What is the quality score of ESRT?
Empire State Realty Trust Inc has a Quality Score of 41/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Empire State Realty Trust Inc (ESRT)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $3.01 (as of Nov 4, 2026) from 16 valuation models. Cautious scenario $2.04, optimistic scenario $3.76. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Empire State Realty Trust Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $3.01, about 43% lower versus a price of $5.31 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $2.04, optimistic scenario $3.76. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Empire State Realty Trust Inc (ESRT)?
Empire State Realty Trust Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $783M (latest available figure, as of Nov 4, 2026).
Does Empire State Realty Trust Inc pay a dividend?
Empire State Realty Trust Inc currently shows a dividend yield of 2.64% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 4, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Empire State Realty Trust Inc (ESRT) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Empire State Realty Trust Inc pays a dividend of $0.14 per share a year, a dividend yield of 2.6%. The last ex-dividend date was Sep 15, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 2013. The payout ratio is 11.3% of earnings (on adjusted earnings, reported 50.6%). Free cash flow covers the dividend 2.10 times. Our assessment: Well covered. A low payout and the dividend is fully funded by free cash flow, a comfortable, sustainable dividend.
What growth is priced into Empire State Realty Trust Inc (ESRT)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Empire State Realty Trust Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +42.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.4 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +4.8 % per year. As of Nov 4, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of ESRT use?
Our models discount Empire State Realty Trust Inc at 12.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 1.42, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Empire State Realty Trust Inc that is +42.3 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (12.4 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Empire State Realty Trust Inc (ESRT) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Empire State Realty Trust Inc grew +4.8 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +42.3 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Empire State Realty Trust Inc (ESRT) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Empire State Realty Trust Inc (+42.3 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Empire State Realty Trust Inc (ESRT)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.54 %: that much free cash flow Empire State Realty Trust Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.4 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Empire State Realty Trust Inc (ESRT)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Empire State Realty Trust Inc it is $3.01 per share (as of Nov 4, 2026), against a price of $5.31. It is the blended result of 16 valuation models in 6 families (DCF Models, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit).
Is Empire State Realty Trust Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 4, 2026, ESRT trades above its calculated fair value: price $5.31, fair value $3.01, a gap of about −43% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ESRT?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($5.31); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($3.01). For Empire State Realty Trust Inc the two are $2.30 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Empire State Realty Trust Inc worth?
The market values Empire State Realty Trust Inc at about $1.5B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 4, 2026). Per share that is $5.31; our models calculate a fair value of $3.01 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ESRT?
Our models span a range for Empire State Realty Trust Inc: cautious scenario $2.04, base $3.01, optimistic $3.76 per share (as of Nov 4, 2026, price $5.31). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of ESRT?
The PEG ratio of Empire State Realty Trust Inc is 37.36 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 4, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Empire State Realty Trust Inc (ESRT)?
Balance-sheet figures for Empire State Realty Trust Inc (as of Nov 4, 2026): return on equity 0.5%, debt of 1.78 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 41/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ESRT from its 52-week high?
Empire State Realty Trust Inc trades at $5.31, about 27% below its 52-week high of $7.27 and 35% above the low of $3.93 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $3.01 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Empire State Realty Trust Inc?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value Goodman Group, VICI Properties Inc, W. P. Carey Inc, Charter Hall Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Empire State Realty Trust Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 4, 2026: price $5.31, calculated fair value $3.01 (−43%), Quality Score 41/100, from 16 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ESRT calculated?
We run Empire State Realty Trust Inc through 16 models from 6 families: DCF Models, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $3.01 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0% above its aggregate fair value. Empire State Realty Trust Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Empire State Realty Trust Inc (ESRT)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $5.31. Our model-based fair value is $3.01, about 43% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Empire State Realty Trust Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($3.76). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (41/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. A fairly wide model range ($2.04 to $3.76) leaves room in how you read the outcome. As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Where does the earnings growth of Empire State Realty Trust Inc (ESRT) come from?
Earnings per share at Empire State Realty Trust Inc grew +3.2 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +1.5 %, EBIT margin −2.4 %, tax rate +0.8 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +3.4 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Empire State Realty Trust Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Empire State Realty Trust Inc (ESRT)?
The market capitalisation of Empire State Realty Trust Inc is $1.5B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Empire State Realty Trust Inc (ESRT)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Empire State Realty Trust Inc is 1.98 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Empire State Realty Trust Inc (ESRT)?
Earnings per share at Empire State Realty Trust Inc are $−0.0200. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Empire State Realty Trust Inc (ESRT)?
The dividend yield of Empire State Realty Trust Inc is 2.6% (payout 11.3%, on adjusted earnings, reported 50.6%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Empire State Realty Trust Inc (ESRT)?
The net margin of Empire State Realty Trust Inc is 0.9% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Empire State Realty Trust Inc (ESRT)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Empire State Realty Trust Inc is 0.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Empire State Realty Trust Inc (ESRT)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Empire State Realty Trust Inc is 3.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Empire State Realty Trust Inc (ESRT)?
The operating margin of Empire State Realty Trust Inc is 16.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Empire State Realty Trust Inc (ESRT)?
Revenue at Empire State Realty Trust Inc is growing +3.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +2.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Empire State Realty Trust Inc (ESRT)?
Earnings per share at Empire State Realty Trust Inc are growing −86.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Empire State Realty Trust Inc (ESRT) carry?
The net debt of Empire State Realty Trust Inc is $2.3B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 45.0 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Some data
Nov 4, 2026