Evolution AB (EVO) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · SE · Market cap 132B SEK
Fair value as of: Jul 13, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 29 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 13, 2026, revised from kr 89.37 to kr 974.80 (+990.7%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price +8.5% over the past month.
A strong business, screening 31% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- The rarer combination: high quality (79/100) AND below fair value. That earns a closer look rather than a quick verdict.
- The model range is unusually wide (kr 731.94 to kr 3,656). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range kr 515.80 – kr 1,449 · fair‑value band kr 731.94 – kr 3,656 · the kr 741.80 price screens below the kr 974.80 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 13, 2026.
Analysis
Evolution AB (EVO) currently trades at kr 741.80, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is kr 974.80, implying the stock looks roughly 31.4% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 79/100 (high quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, Evolution AB generated revenue of 2.1B SEK at a net margin of 51.5%. Revenue declined 1.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 25.0%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of 652M SEK. Fundamentals as of Jul 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from kr 731.94 (bear case) to kr 3,656 (bull case); at kr 741.80, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Analysts expect earnings well below the last reported figure (earnings in transition, for example expiring patents or contracts); a fair value that looks fair on trailing earnings may then be too optimistic. The share trades about 16% below its 52-week high and 44% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at -11% fair-value upside, at 31%, EVO screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (kr 255.03) versus Asset-Based (kr 14.07). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 78 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 54
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Evolution AB (publ) develops, produces, markets, and licenses live casino and slots solutions to gaming operators in Europe, Asia, North America, Latin America, and internationally.
Full company description
Evolution AB (publ) develops, produces, markets, and licenses live casino and slots solutions to gaming operators in Europe, Asia, North America, Latin America, and internationally. It offers casino and live games shows under the Evolution and Ezugi brands; online casino under the NetEnt brand name; and casino games and software comprising jackpot system, a smart spins bonus management application, and tournaments gamification under the Red Tiger brand. It also provides slots titles and game mechanics under the Big Time Gaming brand; online casino platform and games under the Nolimit City brand name; HD spinning gaming wheels under the DigiWheel brand; and B2B social streaming games under the Livespins brand name. The company was formerly known as Evolution Gaming Group AB (publ). Evolution AB (publ) was founded in 2006 and is headquartered in Stockholm, Sweden.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Evolution AB reported revenue of kr 2.1B in FY2025 versus kr 1.1B in FY2021, a compound +18.7%/yr. Reported net income was kr 1.1B in FY2025, compounding +15.1%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +43.3 pp · buybacks/dilution −2.5 pp
Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
Watch EVO: get an alert when its fair value changes →
Peer Group
Gambling · 54 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Gambling median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Gambling stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Flutter Entertainment plc FLUT | $110.66 | $88.33 | -20% |
| The Lottery Corporation TLC | A$5.62 | A$2.99 | -47% |
| Super Group SGHC | $14.73 | $9.39 | -36% |
| Lottomatica Group LTMC | €25.62 | €16.38 | -36% |
| Light & Wonder, Inc LNWO | $78.94 | $70.17 | -11% |
| Churchill Downs Incorporated CHDN | $83.95 | $94.74 | +13% |
| FDJ United FDJ | €23.24 | €20.97 | -10% |
| Brightstar Lottery PLC BRSL | $10.71 | $17.61 | +64% |
| Tabcorp Holdings TAH | A$0.8750 | A$0.3700 | -58% |
| Betsson AB BETSB | kr 90.60 | kr 346.34 | +282% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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