Evolution AB (publ) (EVO) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 5, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Evolution AB (publ) stock SEK 2,215, price SEK 859, upside +157.9%, quality 81 out of 100. Rating: strongly undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Meets all rules:undervalued,strong quality, uptrend
The stock costs 61% less than our calculation considers fair.
Fair value kr 2,215 · Strongly undervalued (61%)
Quality 81/100
Highly profitable · 50.9% net margin (TTM)
Low debt
Generates free cash flow
Ranks above peers(10/14)
Wide moat87/100
Positive coverage
Broad data
Even on cautious assumptions the value is 31% above the price (kr 1,126).
Mixed Growth(revenue 5y +30.4 %/yr in EUR)
Risks from the AI analysis
🚩Regulatory setbacks in Brazil and softer Europe🚩Regulatory restrictions in key markets🚩AI live dealer start-ups undercut costs🚩Rivals like Pragmatic Play gain share
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 4, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range kr 515.80 – kr 1,400 · fair‑value band kr 1,126 – kr 3,886 · the kr 859.00 price screens below the kr 2,215 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 4, 2026.
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Evolution AB (publ) develops, produces, markets, and licenses live casino and slots solutions to gaming operators in Europe, Asia, North America, Latin America, and internationally.
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It offers casino and live games shows under the Evolution and Ezugi brands; online casino under the NetEnt brand name; and casino games and software comprising jackpot system, a smart spins bonus management application, and tournaments gamification under the Red Tiger brand.
It also provides slots titles and game mechanics under the Big Time Gaming brand; online casino platform and games under the Nolimit City brand name; HD spinning gaming wheels under the DigiWheel brand; and B2B social streaming games under the Livespins brand name.
The company was formerly known as Evolution Gaming Group AB (publ). Evolution AB (publ) was founded in 2006 and is headquartered in Stockholm, Sweden.
Stock analysis
Evolution AB (publ) (EVO) currently trades at kr 859.00, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is kr 2,215, implying the stock looks roughly 61% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of kr 2,983 per share, and 16 of the 26 models we run sit above the kr 859.00 price.
Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at kr 246.79, and 10 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: kr 1,126 (bear) to kr 3,886 (bull), the price of kr 859.00 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 81/100 (high quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Evolution AB (publ) reported revenue of €2.1B in FY2025 versus €1.1B in FY2021, a compound +18.7%/yr. Reported net income was €1.1B in FY2025, compounding +15.1%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 169B SEK (≈ $17.3B) Large · P/E ratio 14.7 · P/S ratio 7.35 · EPS (TTM) kr 58.63 · Dividend yield 4.3% · Net margin 50.1% · Return on equity 28.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 22.0%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 87 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
Analysts expect earnings well below the last reported figure (earnings in transition, for example expiring patents or contracts); a fair value that looks fair on trailing earnings may then be too optimistic.
The share trades about 5% below its 52-week high and 67% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 12% fair-value upside, at 158%, EVO screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bearkr 1,126Fair Value kr 2,215Bullkr 3,886
Price kr 859.00 · Upside +157.9%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (kr 49.63 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.94/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−4.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+30.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +39.4% a year
Revenue growth 13 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+38.3%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+32.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+28.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)4.3%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.28.3% vs 46.9%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.53% → 59%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−2.9%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+3.6%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in EUR, euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −5.0% a year for the price and +1.4% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (38 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
AI conclusion: Evolution sustains robust margins in live casino through RNG growth and new titles, yet regulatory setbacks in Brazil and softer Europe constrain scaling.
Main risk: Stricter enforcement or sudden bans in markets such as the UK and Brazil could limit distribution of its live casino content to operators or raise compliance costs and studio closures.
Bull case: By integrating AI dealers as a complement and strengthening compliance across markets the company could expand its product range and secure broader operator adoption in regulated jurisdictions.
Bear case: If regulatory barriers multiply and cheaper AI or rival offerings proliferate its live casino studios could face reduced utilisation and margin compression as operators shift to lower-cost alternatives.
Evolution keeps delivering strong margins in live casino while RNG grows and new titles launch across regions. Q3 brought the first revenue increase in five quarters, supported by ongoing share repurchases that shrink the capital base. Regulatory setbacks in Brazil and softer Europe create clear tension: will product expansion and capital discipline outweigh these market frictions or highlight limits in scaling?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Gambling · 44 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score81 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+157.9% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)28.4% · Top 25%
Return on assets19.3% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)50.9% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)55.2% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)3.7% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months)4.3% · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Gambling median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Evolution AB (publ) Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/EVO
Frequently asked questions
Is Evolution AB (publ) (EVO) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 4, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of kr 2,215 versus a price of kr 859.00, about +158% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of EVO?
Our model-based fair value for Evolution AB (publ) is kr 2,215 (as of Nov 4, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: kr 859.00.
What is the quality score of EVO?
Evolution AB (publ) has a Quality Score of 81/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Evolution AB (publ) (EVO)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of kr 2,215 (as of Nov 4, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario kr 1,126, optimistic scenario kr 3,886. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Evolution AB (publ) stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at kr 2,215, about +158% upside versus a price of kr 859.00 (undervalued). Cautious scenario kr 1,126, optimistic scenario kr 3,886. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Evolution AB (publ) (EVO)?
Evolution AB (publ) reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €2.1B (latest available figure, as of Nov 4, 2026).
Does Evolution AB (publ) pay a dividend?
Evolution AB (publ) currently shows a dividend yield of 4.29% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 4, 2026).
What growth is priced into Evolution AB (publ) (EVO)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Evolution AB (publ) would have to grow free cash flow by -2.9 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.4 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +30.4 % per year. As of Nov 4, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of EVO use?
Our models discount Evolution AB (publ) at 8.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.74, country premium for Sweden. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Evolution AB (publ) that is -2.9 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.4 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Evolution AB (publ) (EVO) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Evolution AB (publ) grew +30.4 % a year. The price currently implies -2.9 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Evolution AB (publ) (EVO) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Evolution AB (publ) (-2.9 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Evolution AB (publ) (EVO)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 7.90 %: that much free cash flow Evolution AB (publ) produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.4 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Evolution AB (publ) (EVO)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Evolution AB (publ) it is kr 2,215 per share (as of Nov 4, 2026), against a price of kr 859.00. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Evolution AB (publ) stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 4, 2026, EVO trades below its calculated fair value: price kr 859.00, fair value kr 2,215, a gap of about +158% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of EVO?
No. The price is what the market pays today (kr 859.00); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (kr 2,215). For Evolution AB (publ) the two are kr 1,356 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Evolution AB (publ) worth?
The market values Evolution AB (publ) at about 169B SEK (market capitalisation, as of Nov 4, 2026). Per share that is kr 859.00; our models calculate a fair value of kr 2,215 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about EVO?
Our models span a range for Evolution AB (publ): cautious scenario kr 1,126, base kr 2,215, optimistic kr 3,886 per share (as of Nov 4, 2026, price kr 859.00). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of EVO?
Evolution AB (publ) trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 14.7 (as of Nov 4, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of kr 2,215 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 7 fiscal years (2019 to 2025), reported earnings, FY2025 ex one-offs: 23.5. Other multiples: P/B 3.8, P/S 7.4, EV/EBITDA 11.7.
How solid is the balance sheet of Evolution AB (publ) (EVO)?
Balance-sheet figures for Evolution AB (publ) (as of Nov 4, 2026): return on equity 28.4%. They feed the Quality Score of 81/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is EVO from its 52-week high?
Evolution AB (publ) trades at kr 859.00, about 5% below its 52-week high of kr 900.00 and 67% above the low of kr 515.80 (as of Nov 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of kr 2,215 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Evolution AB (publ)?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Flutter Entertainment plc, The Lottery Corporation, Lottomatica Group, Light & Wonder, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Evolution AB (publ) stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 4, 2026: price kr 859.00, calculated fair value kr 2,215 (+158%), Quality Score 81/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of EVO calculated?
We run Evolution AB (publ) through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of kr 2,215, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.6% above its aggregate fair value. Evolution AB (publ) currently trades 61% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Evolution AB (publ) (EVO)?
The closing price on Nov 5, 2026 was kr 859.00. Our model-based fair value is kr 2,215, about +158% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Evolution AB (publ) right now?
The rarer combination: high quality (81/100) AND below fair value. That earns a closer look rather than a quick verdict. The price is below even our cautious bear case (kr 1,126). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The model range is unusually wide (kr 1,126 to kr 3,886). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
Where does the earnings growth of Evolution AB (publ) (EVO) come from?
Earnings per share at Evolution AB (publ) grew +52.4 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +40.8 %, EBIT margin +9.0 %, tax rate −0.6 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.1 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Evolution AB (publ)
How large is the market capitalisation of Evolution AB (publ) (EVO)?
The market capitalisation of Evolution AB (publ) is 169B SEK (≈ $17.3B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Evolution AB (publ) (EVO)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Evolution AB (publ) is 7.35 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Evolution AB (publ) (EVO)?
Earnings per share at Evolution AB (publ) are kr 58.63 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 14.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Evolution AB (publ) (EVO)?
The dividend yield of Evolution AB (publ) is 4.3% (payout 62.9%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Evolution AB (publ) (EVO)?
The net margin of Evolution AB (publ) is 50.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Evolution AB (publ) (EVO)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Evolution AB (publ) is 28.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Evolution AB (publ) (EVO)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Evolution AB (publ) is 22.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Evolution AB (publ) (EVO)?
The operating margin of Evolution AB (publ) is 55.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Evolution AB (publ) (EVO)?
Revenue at Evolution AB (publ) is growing +3.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg +13.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Evolution AB (publ) (EVO)?
Earnings per share at Evolution AB (publ) are growing +3.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Evolution AB (publ) (EVO) hold?
Evolution AB (publ) holds more cash than debt, €652M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Broad data
Nov 4, 2026