Exail Technologies S.A. (EXA) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what Exail Technologies S.A. is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Watch Exail Technologies S.A. for free, get notified when fair value or trend changes. Plus fair value for all 35,000+ stocks, 14 days of Pro free, no card.Watch for free
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €10.43 – €148.80 · the €124.40 price screens above the €28.08 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.
Exail Technologies provides robotics, maritime, navigation, aerospace, and photonics technologies solutions in France, the rest of Europe, Africa, Americas, Oceania, and Asia. The company operates through the Navigation & Maritime Robotics and Advanced Technologies segments. It offers components, products, and systems.
Show more
Exail Technologies provides robotics, maritime, navigation, aerospace, and photonics technologies solutions in France, the rest of Europe, Africa, Americas, Oceania, and Asia. The company operates through the Navigation & Maritime Robotics and Advanced Technologies segments. It offers components, products, and systems. The company is also involved in the sale of navigation systems, positioning systems, and sonars; and the commercialization of drones and autonomous drone systems for maritime applications. In addition, it develops and sells photonic and quantum components, such as specialty optical fibers, optical modulators, quantum measurement instruments; and products using onboard communication equipment, simulators, and autonomous decision-making technologies. Exail Technologies was incorporated in 1988 and is headquartered in Paris, France.
Stock analysis
Exail Technologies S.A. (EXA) currently trades at €124.40, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €28.08, implying the stock looks roughly 343.1% overvalued today.
Show more
Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of €49.29 per share, and 0 of the 26 models we run sit above the €124.40 price.
Bear case: the Growth Earnings group reads lowest at €3.03, and 26 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 50/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Exail Technologies S.A. reported revenue of €479M in FY2025 versus €116M in FY2021, a compound +42.5%/yr. Reported net income was €3.0M in FY2025, compounding −49.6%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap €2.1B · P/E ratio 731.8 · P/S ratio 4.56 · EPS (TTM) €0.1700 · Dividend yield 0.0% · Net margin 0.6% · Return on equity 1.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 41 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat.
The share trades about 22% below its 52-week high and 92% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −23% fair-value upside, at −77%, EXA screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely (€0.5200 to €90.54). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
Bear €28.08Fair Value €28.08Bull €28.08
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 8 months old). Earnings retained since then (€0.1197 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.90/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+28.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+36.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+26.0%
Revenue growth 16 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.4%
’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−39.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−39.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−39% vs 4%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.7% → 7%
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+18.2%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+22.1%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
Compare Exail Technologies S.A. with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Free, no sign-up
Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Aerospace & Defense · 233 stocks
Beats the industry median on 2/14 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score50 · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)2% · Below median
Return on assets2% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)1% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)6% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth22% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)0.0% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.64× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Aerospace & Defense median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)731.8× · Priciest 25%
P/B5.90× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM)4.84× · Pricier than median
P/FCF32.3× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA47.7× · Priciest 25%
PEG0.52× · Cheapest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 45
PAST (return on equity)7· sector 36
HEALTH (low debt)68· sector 93
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 17
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Exail Technologies S.A. (EXA) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €28.08 versus a price of €124.40, about −77% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of EXA?
Our model-based fair value for Exail Technologies S.A. is €28.08 (as of Sep 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €124.40.
What is the quality score of EXA?
Exail Technologies S.A. has a Quality Score of 50/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Exail Technologies S.A. (EXA)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €28.08 (as of Sep 13, 2026) from 26 valuation models. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Exail Technologies S.A. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €28.08, about −77% upside versus a price of €124.40 (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Exail Technologies S.A. (EXA)?
Exail Technologies S.A. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €503M (latest available figure, as of Sep 13, 2026).
Does Exail Technologies S.A. pay a dividend?
Exail Technologies S.A. currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.02% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 13, 2026).
What growth is priced into Exail Technologies S.A. (EXA)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Exail Technologies S.A. would have to grow free cash flow by +18.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +26.0 % per year. As of Sep 13, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of EXA use?
Our models discount Exail Technologies S.A. at 10.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 1.13, country premium for France. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Exail Technologies S.A. that is +18.2 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Exail Technologies S.A. (EXA) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Exail Technologies S.A. grew +26.0 % a year. The price currently implies +18.2 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Exail Technologies S.A. (EXA) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Exail Technologies S.A. (+18.2 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Exail Technologies S.A. (EXA)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.57 %: that much free cash flow Exail Technologies S.A. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Exail Technologies S.A. (EXA)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Exail Technologies S.A. it is €28.08 per share (as of Sep 13, 2026), against a price of €124.40. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Exail Technologies S.A. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 13, 2026, EXA trades above its calculated fair value: price €124.40, fair value €28.08, a gap of about −77% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of EXA?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€124.40); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€28.08). For Exail Technologies S.A. the two are €96.32 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Exail Technologies S.A. worth?
The market values Exail Technologies S.A. at about €2.1B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 13, 2026). Per share that is €124.40; our models calculate a fair value of €28.08 per share.
What is the PEG ratio of EXA?
The PEG ratio of Exail Technologies S.A. is 0.52 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 13, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Exail Technologies S.A. (EXA)?
Balance-sheet figures for Exail Technologies S.A. (as of Sep 13, 2026): return on equity 1.7%, debt of 0.64 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 50/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is EXA from its 52-week high?
Exail Technologies S.A. trades at €124.40, about 22% below its 52-week high of €159.20 and 92% above the low of €64.70 (as of Sep 13, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €28.08 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Exail Technologies S.A.?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value General Electric Company, RTX Corporation, Airbus SE, Safran SA, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Exail Technologies S.A. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 13, 2026: price €124.40, calculated fair value €28.08 (−77%), Quality Score 50/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of EXA calculated?
We run Exail Technologies S.A. through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €28.08, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.8 % above its aggregate fair value. Exail Technologies S.A. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What should I pay attention to with Exail Technologies S.A. right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (€28.08). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (50/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of Exail Technologies S.A.
How large is the market capitalisation of Exail Technologies S.A. (EXA)?
The market capitalisation of Exail Technologies S.A. is €2.1B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/E ratio of Exail Technologies S.A. (EXA)?
The price-to-earnings ratio of Exail Technologies S.A. is 731.8. Price to earnings: how many years of current profit you pay for the stock. A P/E of 10 means ten years of profit.
What is the P/S ratio of Exail Technologies S.A. (EXA)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Exail Technologies S.A. is 4.56 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Exail Technologies S.A. (EXA)?
Earnings per share at Exail Technologies S.A. are €0.1700 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 731.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Exail Technologies S.A. (EXA)?
The dividend yield of Exail Technologies S.A. is 0.0% (payout 17.5%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Exail Technologies S.A. (EXA)?
The net margin of Exail Technologies S.A. is 0.6% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Exail Technologies S.A. (EXA)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Exail Technologies S.A. is 1.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Exail Technologies S.A. (EXA)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Exail Technologies S.A. is 1.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Exail Technologies S.A. (EXA)?
The operating margin of Exail Technologies S.A. is 6.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Exail Technologies S.A. (EXA)?
Revenue at Exail Technologies S.A. is growing +22.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +36.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Exail Technologies S.A. (EXA)?
Earnings per share at Exail Technologies S.A. are growing +25.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Exail Technologies S.A. (EXA) carry?
The net debt of Exail Technologies S.A. is €39.8M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 0.5 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
Free · no account needed
Watch Exail Technologies S.A. in the live analysis
One click puts Exail Technologies S.A. on your watchlist: fair value and trend at a glance, plus comparison, the diversification check and the 35,000+ stock screener. You can also try 14 days of Pro there, no card.
