FalconStor Software Inc (FALC) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of FalconStor Software Inc $1.28, price $1.69, upside -24.3%, quality 52 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 3, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $0.4990 – $8.30 · fair‑value band $0.8000 – $1.98 · the $1.69 price screens above the $1.28 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 3, 2026.
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FalconStor Software, Inc. operates as a hybrid cloud data protection company for finance, healthcare, technology, and others worldwide.
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FalconStor Software, Inc. operates as a hybrid cloud data protection company for finance, healthcare, technology, and others worldwide. The company offers FalconStor StorSafe, a data protection optimization and modernization solution that can run in the cloud, on physical servers, and on virtual machines; StorGuard, an advanced data services for underlying disk arrays; StorSight, a central orchestration for management. The company was incorporated in 1994 and is headquartered in Austin, Texas.
Stock analysis
FalconStor Software Inc (FALC) currently trades at $1.69, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $1.28, 24.3% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $3.37 per share, and 8 of the 22 models we run sit above the $1.69 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $0.1500, and 14 of the 22 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: $0.8000 (bear) to $1.98 (bull), the price of $1.69 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 52/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
FalconStor Software Inc reported revenue of $10.4M in FY2025 versus $14.2M in FY2021, a compound −7.5%/yr. Reported net income was $1.1M in FY2025, compounding +54.2%/yr from FY2021. FY2021 was a trough year, so the rate overstates the trend.
Key figures
Market cap $12.1M · P/S ratio 1.18 · EPS (TTM) $−0.0500 · Dividend yield 2.1% · Net margin 11.1% · Return on equity −217% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.0% · Operating margin 0.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 45% below its 52-week high and 63% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −8% fair-value upside, at −24%, FALC screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $0.8000Fair Value $1.28Bull $1.98
Price $1.69 · Upside -24.3%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.26/100
Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
Revenue growth 1 year
−0.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−6.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −14.3% a year
Revenue growth 31 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−3.7%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+10.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+8.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.1%
Profit margin 2019 to 2024 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.1% → 8%
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 35.6%/yr over ~10Y (margin trend unclear) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+33.9%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +30.8% a year for the price.
Compare FalconStor Software Inc with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Software - Application · 640 stocks
Beats the industry median on 2/10 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score52 · Below median
Fair Value upside−24.3% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)Negative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
Return on assets−3.5% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)−11.1% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)0.4% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth1.2% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)2.1% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equityNegative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
Valuation Multiplesvs Software - Application median · lower = cheaper
P/BNegative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
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Is FalconStor Software Inc (FALC) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 3, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $1.28 versus a price of $1.69, about −24% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of FALC?
Our model-based fair value for FalconStor Software Inc is $1.28 (as of Oct 3, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $1.69.
What is the quality score of FALC?
FalconStor Software Inc has a Quality Score of 52/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for FalconStor Software Inc (FALC)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $1.28 (as of Oct 3, 2026) from 22 valuation models. Cautious scenario $0.8000, optimistic scenario $1.98. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the FalconStor Software Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $1.28, about −24% upside versus a price of $1.69 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $0.8000, optimistic scenario $1.98. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of FalconStor Software Inc (FALC)?
FalconStor Software Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $10.3M (latest available figure, as of Oct 3, 2026).
Does FalconStor Software Inc pay a dividend?
FalconStor Software Inc currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.06% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 3, 2026).
What growth is priced into FalconStor Software Inc (FALC)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, FalconStor Software Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +33.9 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -6.8 % per year. As of Oct 3, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of FALC use?
Our models discount FalconStor Software Inc at 8.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (nano), damped by beta 0.37, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For FalconStor Software Inc that is +33.9 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has FalconStor Software Inc (FALC) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at FalconStor Software Inc grew -6.8 % a year. The price currently implies +33.9 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of FalconStor Software Inc (FALC) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +10.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into FalconStor Software Inc (+33.9 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of FalconStor Software Inc (FALC)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 1.13 %: that much free cash flow FalconStor Software Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of FalconStor Software Inc (FALC)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For FalconStor Software Inc it is $1.28 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026), against a price of $1.69. It is the blended result of 22 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is FalconStor Software Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 3, 2026, FALC trades above its calculated fair value: price $1.69, fair value $1.28, a gap of about −24% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of FALC?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($1.69); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($1.28). For FalconStor Software Inc the two are $0.4100 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is FalconStor Software Inc worth?
The market values FalconStor Software Inc at about $12.1M (market capitalisation, as of Oct 3, 2026). Per share that is $1.69; our models calculate a fair value of $1.28 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about FALC?
Our models span a range for FalconStor Software Inc: cautious scenario $0.8000, base $1.28, optimistic $1.98 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026, price $1.69). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of FALC?
The PEG ratio of FalconStor Software Inc is 43.00 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Oct 3, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of FalconStor Software Inc (FALC)?
Balance-sheet figures for FalconStor Software Inc (as of Oct 3, 2026): negative equity, so no return on equity and no debt-to-equity ratio. They feed the Quality Score of 52/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is FALC from its 52-week high?
FalconStor Software Inc trades at $1.69, about 45% below its 52-week high of $3.05 and 63% above the low of $1.04 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $1.28 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to FalconStor Software Inc?
From the same area (Technology) we also value SAP SE, Salesforce, Inc, Shopify Inc, ServiceNow, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is FalconStor Software Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 3, 2026: price $1.69, calculated fair value $1.28 (−24%), Quality Score 52/100, from 22 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of FALC calculated?
We run FalconStor Software Inc through 22 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $1.28, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.9 % above its aggregate fair value. FalconStor Software Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of FalconStor Software Inc (FALC)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $1.69. Our model-based fair value is $1.28, about −24% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with FalconStor Software Inc right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (52/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range ($0.8000 to $1.98) leaves room in how you read the outcome. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
Key figures of FalconStor Software Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of FalconStor Software Inc (FALC)?
The market capitalisation of FalconStor Software Inc is $12.1M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of FalconStor Software Inc (FALC)?
The price-to-sales ratio of FalconStor Software Inc is 1.18 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of FalconStor Software Inc (FALC)?
Earnings per share at FalconStor Software Inc are $−0.0500. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of FalconStor Software Inc (FALC)?
The dividend yield of FalconStor Software Inc is 2.1%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of FalconStor Software Inc (FALC)?
The net margin of FalconStor Software Inc is 11.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of FalconStor Software Inc (FALC)?
The return on equity (ROE) of FalconStor Software Inc is −217% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of FalconStor Software Inc (FALC)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of FalconStor Software Inc is 2.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of FalconStor Software Inc (FALC)?
The operating margin of FalconStor Software Inc is 0.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at FalconStor Software Inc (FALC)?
Revenue at FalconStor Software Inc is growing +1.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +1.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at FalconStor Software Inc (FALC)?
Earnings per share at FalconStor Software Inc are growing −94.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does FalconStor Software Inc (FALC) hold?
FalconStor Software Inc holds more cash than debt, $170K net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Thin data
Oct 3, 2026