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Ferrexpo plc (FEEXY) fair value: what the stock is really worth

We calculate from audited financials what Ferrexpo plc is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? Yes
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Basic Materials · US · ISIN GB00B1XH2C03

FP Ferrexpo plc logo Thin data Sep 13, 2026

Ferrexpo plc

FEEXY · US

Overvalued / MonitorQuality is not strong enough to offset the price risk.

!Fair value $1.24 · Overvalued (−25%)
!Quality 55/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 5y −9.1 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -36.0% net margin (TTM)
!Low debt · negative free cash flow
!Narrow moat 12/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$14.87 $1.65 Fair Value $1.24 Oct 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

59‑month range $1.65 – $14.87 · fair‑value band $1.18 – $1.29 · the $1.65 price screens above the $1.24 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.

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Company profile

Ferrexpo plc, together with its subsidiaries, mines for, develops, processes, produces, markets, exports, and sells iron ore pellets to the metallurgical industry.

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Ferrexpo plc, together with its subsidiaries, mines for, develops, processes, produces, markets, exports, and sells iron ore pellets to the metallurgical industry. It operates two mines and a processing plant near Kremenchuk in Ukraine; a fleet of vessels operating on the Rhine and Danube waterways; and an ocean-going vessel, which provides top-off services. The company is involved in mining, and ore processing metallurgical beneficiation and pelletizer plants, as well as transportation and logistics, and marketing business. It has operation in Turkey, rest of Europe, China, South East Asia, the Middle East, and North Africa. It serves premium steel mills. The company was incorporated in 2005 and is headquartered in Baar, Switzerland.

Stock analysis

Ferrexpo plc (FEEXY) currently trades at $1.65, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $1.24, implying the stock looks roughly 33.1% overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of $4.21 per share, and 4 of the 6 models we run sit above the $1.65 price.

Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $1.20, and 2 of the 6 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Scenario range: $1.18 (bear) to $1.29 (bull), the price of $1.65 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 55/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.

Ferrexpo plc reported revenue of $933M in FY2024 versus $1.7B in FY2020, a compound −13.9%/yr. Reported net income was −$50.0M in FY2024.

Key figures

Market cap $243M · P/S ratio 0.29 · EPS (TTM) $−2.05 · Dividend yield 0.0% · Net margin −5.4% · Return on equity −33.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 25.3% · Operating margin −7.6%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 56% below its 52-week high, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −24% fair-value upside, at −25%, FEEXY screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $1.18 Fair Value $1.24 Bull $1.29
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
EPV $1.15 $1.20 $1.24 74
ROIC Compounder $1.15 $1.20 $1.24 72
EV/EBITDA $4.69 $6.02 $7.34 67
All 6 models by family
Earnings-Based
EPV $1.15 $1.20 $1.24 74
Multiples
EV/EBIT $1.98 $2.40 $2.82 66
EV/EBITDA $4.69 $6.02 $7.34 67
EV/Revenue $1.81 $2.28 $2.74 54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $3.14 $4.21 $6.28 54
Economic Profit
ROIC Compounder $1.15 $1.20 $1.24 72

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 55/100

Of which business quality 54 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 17

Profitability 22
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 74
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 19
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 75
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 84
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 52
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 4
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 0
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 82
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 0/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+43.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−28.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−9.1%
Revenue growth 7 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−3.5%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
37.5% (2019) → 1.9% (2024)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2024 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

FEEXY screens 33% overvalued. Compare with Nucor Corporation →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Steel · 407 stocks

Beats the industry median on 4/9 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 55 · Above median
Fair Value upside +43% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on assets −5% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM) −36% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) −8% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth −18% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 0.0% · Bottom 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Steel median · lower = cheaper

P/B 0.26× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (TTM) 0.29× · Cheaper than median

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Steel stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Nucor Corporation NUE $259.43 $116.05 −55%
ArcelorMittal S.A MT €64.36 €32.36 −50%
JSW Steel Limited JSWSTEEL ₹1,268 ₹1,095 −14%
Steel Dynamics, Inc STLD $239.79 $127.14 −47%
500228 500228 ₹1,268 ₹973.59 −23%
Tata Steel Limited TATASTEEL ₹183.00 ₹139.17 −24%
Reliance, Inc RS $394.21 $211.57 −46%
Baoshan Iron & Steel Co 600019 ¥5.84 ¥8.07 +38%
POSCO Holdings PKX $62.94 $68.07 +8%
Jindal Steel & Power Limited JINDALSTEL ₹1,118 ₹388.42 −65%

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$1.24 −33%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Ferrexpo plc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/FEEXY

Frequently asked questions

Is Ferrexpo plc (FEEXY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $1.24 versus a price of $1.65, about −25% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of FEEXY?
Our model-based fair value for Ferrexpo plc is $1.24 (as of Sep 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $1.65.
What is the quality score of FEEXY?
Ferrexpo plc has a Quality Score of 55/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Ferrexpo plc (FEEXY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $1.24 (as of Sep 13, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario $1.18, optimistic scenario $1.29. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Ferrexpo plc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $1.24, about −25% upside versus a price of $1.65 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $1.18, optimistic scenario $1.29. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Ferrexpo plc (FEEXY)?
Ferrexpo plc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $837M (latest available figure, as of Sep 13, 2026).
Does Ferrexpo plc pay a dividend?
Ferrexpo plc currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.02% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 13, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Ferrexpo plc (FEEXY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Ferrexpo plc it is $1.24 per share (as of Sep 13, 2026), against a price of $1.65. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Ferrexpo plc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 13, 2026, FEEXY trades above its calculated fair value: price $1.65, fair value $1.24, a gap of about −25% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of FEEXY?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($1.65); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($1.24). For Ferrexpo plc the two are $0.4100 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Ferrexpo plc worth?
The market values Ferrexpo plc at about $243M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 13, 2026). Per share that is $1.65; our models calculate a fair value of $1.24 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about FEEXY?
Our models span a range for Ferrexpo plc: cautious scenario $1.18, base $1.24, optimistic $1.29 per share (as of Sep 13, 2026, price $1.65). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Ferrexpo plc (FEEXY)?
Balance-sheet figures for Ferrexpo plc (as of Sep 13, 2026): return on equity −33.1%. They feed the Quality Score of 55/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is FEEXY from its 52-week high?
Ferrexpo plc trades at $1.65, about 56% below its 52-week high of $3.76 (as of Sep 13, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $1.24 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Ferrexpo plc?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Nucor Corporation, ArcelorMittal S.A, JSW Steel Limited, Steel Dynamics, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Ferrexpo plc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 13, 2026: price $1.65, calculated fair value $1.24 (−25%), Quality Score 55/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of FEEXY calculated?
We run Ferrexpo plc through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $1.24, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.8 % above its aggregate fair value. Ferrexpo plc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What should I pay attention to with Ferrexpo plc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($1.29). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (55/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. The models converge in a tight band ($1.18 to $1.29), unusually little disagreement for a valuation. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.

Key figures of Ferrexpo plc

How large is the market capitalisation of Ferrexpo plc (FEEXY)?
The market capitalisation of Ferrexpo plc is $243M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Ferrexpo plc (FEEXY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Ferrexpo plc is 0.29 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Ferrexpo plc (FEEXY)?
Earnings per share at Ferrexpo plc are $−2.05. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Ferrexpo plc (FEEXY)?
The dividend yield of Ferrexpo plc is 0.0%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Ferrexpo plc (FEEXY)?
The net margin of Ferrexpo plc is −5.4% (fiscal year 2024). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Ferrexpo plc (FEEXY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Ferrexpo plc is −33.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Ferrexpo plc (FEEXY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Ferrexpo plc is 25.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Ferrexpo plc (FEEXY)?
The operating margin of Ferrexpo plc is −7.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Ferrexpo plc (FEEXY)?
Revenue at Ferrexpo plc is growing −17.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg −28.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Ferrexpo plc (FEEXY)?
Earnings per share at Ferrexpo plc are growing +104% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Ferrexpo plc (FEEXY) generate?
The free cash flow of Ferrexpo plc is −$9.8M (fiscal year 2024). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Ferrexpo plc (FEEXY) hold?
Ferrexpo plc holds more cash than debt, $101M net (fiscal year 2024). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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