Finnair Oyj (FIA1S) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Finnair Oyj €3.31, price €4.68, upside -29.3%, quality 37 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €1.99 – €11.63 · fair‑value band €3.31 – €4.11 · the €4.68 price screens above the €3.31 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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Finnair Oyj operates in the airline business in North Atlantic, Asia, Europe, the Middle East, and internationally.
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Finnair Oyj operates in the airline business in North Atlantic, Asia, Europe, the Middle East, and internationally. The company offers Finnair and oneworld global network, passenger and cargo traffic, ancillary services, package tours under the Aurinkomatkat-Suntours brand name, and other travel products; and catering, component repair service for airbus aircraft types, aircraft and maintenance, and training through auntie online coaching platform. It also operates Finnair Aeromedical Centre, which offers occupational health and aeromedical services which promote air safety in the aviation industry. As of December 31, 2025, it operated through a fleet of 55 aircrafts, which included 26 wide-body and 29 narrowbody aircrafts. Finnair Oyj was incorporated in 1923 and is based in Vantaa, Finland.
Stock analysis
Finnair Oyj (FIA1S) currently trades at €4.68, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €3.31, implying the stock looks roughly 41.5% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of €12.32 per share, and 11 of the 21 models we run sit above the €4.68 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at €0.5800, and 10 of the 21 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: €3.31 (bear) to €4.11 (bull), the price of €4.68 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 37/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Finnair Oyj reported revenue of €3.1B in FY2025 versus €838M in FY2021, a compound +38.7%/yr. Reported net income was €18.4M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap €956M · P/E ratio 15.6 · P/S ratio 0.09 · EPS (TTM) €0.3000 · Net margin 0.6% · Return on equity 8.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) −2.1% · Operating margin −0.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 15% below its 52-week high and 84% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 26% fair-value upside, at −29%, FIA1S screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear €3.31Fair Value €3.31Bull €4.11
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (€0.2195 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.85/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+1.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+30.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +2.9% a year
Revenue growth 26 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.6%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−3.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−3.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−4% vs −27%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−56% → −1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 12.3%/yr over ~10Y (margin trend unclear) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−12.5%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+3.5%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −14.4% a year for the price and +1.3% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Airlines · 60 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/15 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score37 · Below median
Fair Value upside−29% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)8% · Below median
Return on assets2% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)2% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)0% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth12% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)2.4% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.52× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Airlines median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)15.6× · Pricier than median
P/B1.71× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM)0.34× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF5.6× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA4.8× · Cheaper than median
PEG0.16× · Cheapest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 61
FUTURE (revenue growth)61· sector 49
PAST (return on equity)33· sector 49
HEALTH (low debt)24· sector 69
DIVIDEND (yield)47· sector 48
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Finnair Oyj Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/FIA1S
Frequently asked questions
Is Finnair Oyj (FIA1S) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €3.31 versus a price of €4.68, about −29% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of FIA1S?
Our model-based fair value for Finnair Oyj is €3.31 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €4.68.
What is the quality score of FIA1S?
Finnair Oyj has a Quality Score of 37/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Finnair Oyj (FIA1S)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €3.31 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 21 valuation models. Cautious scenario €3.31, optimistic scenario €4.11. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Finnair Oyj stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €3.31, about −29% upside versus a price of €4.68 (overvalued). Cautious scenario €3.31, optimistic scenario €4.11. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Finnair Oyj (FIA1S)?
Finnair Oyj reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €3.2B (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into Finnair Oyj (FIA1S)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Finnair Oyj would have to grow free cash flow by -12.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +30.2 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of FIA1S use?
Our models discount Finnair Oyj at 12.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 1.27, country premium for Finland. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Finnair Oyj that is -12.5 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (12.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Finnair Oyj (FIA1S) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Finnair Oyj grew +30.2 % a year. The price currently implies -12.5 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Finnair Oyj (FIA1S) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Finnair Oyj (-12.5 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Finnair Oyj (FIA1S)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 20.17 %: that much free cash flow Finnair Oyj produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Finnair Oyj (FIA1S)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Finnair Oyj it is €3.31 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of €4.68. It is the blended result of 21 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Finnair Oyj stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, FIA1S trades above its calculated fair value: price €4.68, fair value €3.31, a gap of about −29% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of FIA1S?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€4.68); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€3.31). For Finnair Oyj the two are €1.37 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Finnair Oyj worth?
The market values Finnair Oyj at about €956M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is €4.68; our models calculate a fair value of €3.31 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about FIA1S?
Our models span a range for Finnair Oyj: cautious scenario €3.31, base €3.31, optimistic €4.11 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price €4.68). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of FIA1S?
Finnair Oyj trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 15.6 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of €3.31 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.2, P/B 1.7, P/S 0.3, EV/EBITDA 4.8.
What is the PEG ratio of FIA1S?
The PEG ratio of Finnair Oyj is 0.16 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 23, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Finnair Oyj (FIA1S)?
Balance-sheet figures for Finnair Oyj (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 8.2%, debt of 1.52 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 37/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is FIA1S from its 52-week high?
Finnair Oyj trades at €4.68, about 15% below its 52-week high of €5.53 and 84% above the low of €2.55 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €3.31 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Finnair Oyj?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Delta Air Lines, Inc, United Airlines Holdings, Ryanair Holdings, Southwest Airlines Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Finnair Oyj stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price €4.68, calculated fair value €3.31 (−29%), Quality Score 37/100, from 21 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of FIA1S calculated?
We run Finnair Oyj through 21 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €3.31, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Finnair Oyj itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Finnair Oyj (FIA1S)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was €4.68. Our model-based fair value is €3.31, about −29% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Finnair Oyj right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (€4.11). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (37/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
Key figures of Finnair Oyj
How large is the market capitalisation of Finnair Oyj (FIA1S)?
The market capitalisation of Finnair Oyj is €956M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Finnair Oyj (FIA1S)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Finnair Oyj is 0.09 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Finnair Oyj (FIA1S)?
Earnings per share at Finnair Oyj are €0.3000 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 15.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Finnair Oyj (FIA1S)?
The net margin of Finnair Oyj is 0.6% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Finnair Oyj (FIA1S)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Finnair Oyj is 8.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Finnair Oyj (FIA1S)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Finnair Oyj is −2.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Finnair Oyj (FIA1S)?
The operating margin of Finnair Oyj is −0.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Finnair Oyj (FIA1S)?
Revenue at Finnair Oyj is growing +12.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +9.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Finnair Oyj (FIA1S)?
Earnings per share at Finnair Oyj are growing −46.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Finnair Oyj (FIA1S) carry?
The net debt of Finnair Oyj is €1.3B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 6.5 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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