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Finnair Oyj (FIA1S) Fair Value & Analysis

Industrials · FI · Market cap €988M

FO Finnair Oyj FIA1S · HE
Price€4.96
Fair Value€3.29
Upside-33.7%
Quality37/100
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Healthy Growth
Thin margins · 1.9% net margin
High debt · generates free cash flow
Trails peers (5/15)
Narrow moat 27/100
Evidence: High Range €2.45 – €4.11 Share as image

Fair value as of: Jul 20, 2026

From 23 valuation models · updated 21 days ago

Fair value updated Jul 20, 2026, revised from €1.89 to €3.29 (+74.1%) since Jul 17, 2026. Share price +2.7% over the past month.

Below-average quality, and screening another 34% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

  • The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (€4.11). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
  • Weak quality (37/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

€12.14 €1.99 Fair Value €3.29 May 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 20, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range €1.99 – €12.14 · fair‑value band €2.45 – €4.11 · the €4.96 price screens above the €3.29 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 20, 2026.

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Analysis

Finnair Oyj (FIA1S) currently trades at €4.96, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €3.29, implying the stock looks roughly 33.7% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 37/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).

Over the trailing twelve months, Finnair Oyj generated revenue of €3.2B at a net margin of 1.9%. Revenue grew 12.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 8.2%. Net debt stands at €1.3B. Fundamentals as of Jul 20, 2026

Our scenario range runs from €2.45 (bear case) to €4.11 (bull case); at €4.96, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 103% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 40% fair-value upside, at -34%, FIA1S screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model BearBaseBull Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF €6.75 €10.15 €14.40 80
Residual Income €2.13 €2.06 €1.63 76
Rev-Margin DCF €6.26 €10.93 €16.31 74
All 23 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF €6.69 €10.60 €15.81 38
Owner Earnings €4.86 €7.97 €12.10 31
5Y Revenue Exit €6.26 €10.88 €16.72 39
5Y EBITDA Exit €9.14 €16.26 €24.54 41
5Y P/E Exit €2.14 €3.20 €4.22 38
10Y Revenue Exit €6.12 €10.13 €15.41 36
10Y EBITDA Exit €8.01 €13.54 €20.84 37
10Y P/E Exit €3.94 €5.26 €6.71 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd €0.6100 €1.89 €2.51 54
Lynch FV €0.4100 €0.5800 €0.7600 50
PEG = 1.0 €0.4100 €0.5800 €0.7600 46
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM €0.7800 €1.40 €1.93 70
DDM Multi-Stage €0.7800 €1.21 €1.50 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple €1.41 €1.89 €2.36 63
P/S Multiple €1.15 €1.53 €1.91 58
P/B Multiple €1.15 €1.53 €1.91 55
EV/EBITDA €12.48 €17.35 €22.23 54
EV/Revenue €6.43 €10.10 €13.77 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) €1.55 €2.08 €3.11 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF €6.75 €10.15 €14.40 80
Rev-Margin DCF €6.26 €10.93 €16.31 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income €2.13 €2.06 €1.63 76
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E €1.17 €1.67 €2.17 68

Widest divergence: Growth DCF (€10.15) versus Earnings-Based (€0.5800). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) €3.2B
Revenue growth (YoY) +12.1%
Net margin 1.9%
Return on equity 8.2%
Free cash flow €193M FY2025
P/E ratio 16.1
More key figures
Operating margin -0.4%
EPS (TTM) €0.3000
EPS growth (YoY) -46.4%
Net debt €1.3B FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 20, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 37/100

Of which business quality 38 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 78

Profitability 26
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 26
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 53
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 22
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 65
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 36
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 98
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 91
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 47
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Finnair Oyj operates in the airline business in North Atlantic, Asia, Europe, the Middle East, and internationally. The company offers Finnair and oneworld global network, passenger and cargo traffic, ancillary services, package tours under the Aurinkomatkat-Suntours brand name, and other travel products; and catering, component repair service for airbus …

Full company description

Finnair Oyj operates in the airline business in North Atlantic, Asia, Europe, the Middle East, and internationally. The company offers Finnair and oneworld global network, passenger and cargo traffic, ancillary services, package tours under the Aurinkomatkat-Suntours brand name, and other travel products; and catering, component repair service for airbus aircraft types, aircraft and maintenance, and training through auntie online coaching platform. It also operates Finnair Aeromedical Centre, which offers occupational health and aeromedical services which promote air safety in the aviation industry. As of December 31, 2025, it operated through a fleet of 55 aircrafts, which included 26 wide-body and 29 narrowbody aircrafts. Finnair Oyj was incorporated in 1923 and is based in Vantaa, Finland.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Finnair Oyj reported revenue of €3.1B in FY2025 versus €838M in FY2021, a compound +38.7%/yr. Reported net income was €18.4M in FY2025.

Growth Quality 85/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
€3.1B
Latest YoY
+1.9%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y)
+9.6%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y)
+30.2%
Avg. growth/yr (26Y)
+2.6%
Revenue +38.7%/yr
FY21 €838M
FY22 €2.4B
FY23 €3.0B
FY24 €3.0B
FY25 €3.1B
Net income
FY21 −€464M
FY22 −€476M
FY23 €254M
FY24 €37.0M
FY25 €18.4M

FIA1S screens 34% overvalued. Compare with Delta Air Lines, Inc →

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Finnair Oyj Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/FIA1S

Peer Group

Airlines · 60 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 37 · Below median
Fair Value upside −34% · Bottom 25%
Return on equity (TTM) 8% · Below median
Return on assets 2% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) 2% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) -0% · Below median
Revenue growth 12% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM) 0.0% · Bottom 25%
Debt / equity 1.52× · Higher than 75% of peers

Valuation Multiples vs Airlines median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 16.1× · Pricier than median
P/B 1.79× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM) 0.36× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF 5.9× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 5.0× · Cheaper than median
PEG 0.16× · Cheaper than 75% of peers

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0 · sector 37
FUTURE 61 · sector 46
PAST 33 · sector 46
HEALTH 24 · sector 72
DIVIDEND 0 · sector 41

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Airlines stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 20, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Delta Air Lines, Inc DAL $84.17 $118.24 +40%
United Airlines Holdings UAL $120.97 $175.62 +45%
Ryanair Holdings RYA €25.47 €41.26 +62%
Southwest Airlines Co LUV $47.56 $14.76 -69%
InterGlobe Aviation Limited INDIGO ₹5,249 ₹3,704 -29%
Singapore Airlines Limited C6L 7.60 SGD 7.89 SGD +4%
Air China Limited 601111 ¥5.97 ¥7.16 +20%
LATAM Airlines Group LTM $54.87 $106.79 +95%
Deutsche Lufthansa AG 1LHA €8.57 €15.42 +80%
China Southern Airlines Company 600029 ¥4.99 ¥1.28 -74%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Finnair Oyj (FIA1S) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jul 20, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €3.29 versus a price of €4.96, about −34% (overvalued).
What is the fair value of FIA1S?
Our model-based fair value for Finnair Oyj is €3.29 (as of Jul 20, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is €4.96.
What is the quality score of FIA1S?
Finnair Oyj has a Quality Score of 37/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Finnair Oyj (FIA1S)?
Finnair Oyj reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €3.2B (latest available figure, as of Jul 20, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of FIA1S?
The net profit margin of Finnair Oyj is about 1.9%, meaning it keeps roughly 1.9% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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