Finnair Oyj (FIA1S) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · FI · Market cap €988M
Fair value as of: Jul 20, 2026
From 23 valuation models · updated 21 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 20, 2026, revised from €1.89 to €3.29 (+74.1%) since Jul 17, 2026. Share price +2.7% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 34% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (€4.11). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (37/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 20, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €1.99 – €12.14 · fair‑value band €2.45 – €4.11 · the €4.96 price screens above the €3.29 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 20, 2026.
Analysis
Finnair Oyj (FIA1S) currently trades at €4.96, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €3.29, implying the stock looks roughly 33.7% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 37/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Finnair Oyj generated revenue of €3.2B at a net margin of 1.9%. Revenue grew 12.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 8.2%. Net debt stands at €1.3B. Fundamentals as of Jul 20, 2026
Our scenario range runs from €2.45 (bear case) to €4.11 (bull case); at €4.96, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 103% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 40% fair-value upside, at -34%, FIA1S screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 23 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth DCF (€10.15) versus Earnings-Based (€0.5800). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 20, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 38 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 78
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Finnair Oyj operates in the airline business in North Atlantic, Asia, Europe, the Middle East, and internationally. The company offers Finnair and oneworld global network, passenger and cargo traffic, ancillary services, package tours under the Aurinkomatkat-Suntours brand name, and other travel products; and catering, component repair service for airbus …
Full company description
Finnair Oyj operates in the airline business in North Atlantic, Asia, Europe, the Middle East, and internationally. The company offers Finnair and oneworld global network, passenger and cargo traffic, ancillary services, package tours under the Aurinkomatkat-Suntours brand name, and other travel products; and catering, component repair service for airbus aircraft types, aircraft and maintenance, and training through auntie online coaching platform. It also operates Finnair Aeromedical Centre, which offers occupational health and aeromedical services which promote air safety in the aviation industry. As of December 31, 2025, it operated through a fleet of 55 aircrafts, which included 26 wide-body and 29 narrowbody aircrafts. Finnair Oyj was incorporated in 1923 and is based in Vantaa, Finland.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Finnair Oyj reported revenue of €3.1B in FY2025 versus €838M in FY2021, a compound +38.7%/yr. Reported net income was €18.4M in FY2025.
FIA1S screens 34% overvalued. Compare with Delta Air Lines, Inc →
Peer Group
Airlines · 60 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Airlines median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Airlines stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 20, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Delta Air Lines, Inc DAL | $84.17 | $118.24 | +40% |
| United Airlines Holdings UAL | $120.97 | $175.62 | +45% |
| Ryanair Holdings RYA | €25.47 | €41.26 | +62% |
| Southwest Airlines Co LUV | $47.56 | $14.76 | -69% |
| InterGlobe Aviation Limited INDIGO | ₹5,249 | ₹3,704 | -29% |
| Singapore Airlines Limited C6L | 7.60 SGD | 7.89 SGD | +4% |
| Air China Limited 601111 | ¥5.97 | ¥7.16 | +20% |
| LATAM Airlines Group LTM | $54.87 | $106.79 | +95% |
| Deutsche Lufthansa AG 1LHA | €8.57 | €15.42 | +80% |
| China Southern Airlines Company 600029 | ¥4.99 | ¥1.28 | -74% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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