Full House Resorts, Inc (FLL) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · US · Market cap $104M
Full House Resorts, Inc
FLL · US
Fair value as of: Jul 16, 2026
From 2 valuation models · updated 26 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 16, 2026, revised from $0.2800 to $1.81 (+546.4%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price −9.7% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 26% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- Weak quality (31/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- The model range is unusually wide ($0.3620 to $5.65). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
- Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $2.15 – $12.35 · fair‑value band $0.3620 – $5.65 · the $2.43 price screens above the $1.81 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
Analysis
Full House Resorts, Inc (FLL) currently trades at $2.43, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $1.81, implying the stock looks roughly 25.5% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 31/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: low).
Over the trailing twelve months, Full House Resorts, Inc generated revenue of $302M at a net margin of -12.8%. Revenue declined 0.8% year over year. Net debt stands at $491M. Fundamentals as of Jul 16, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $0.3620 (bear case) to $5.65 (bull case); at $2.43, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 51% below its 52-week high and 20% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 11% fair-value upside, at -26%, FLL screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 2 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples ($3.41) versus Asset-Based ($0.0500). Highest evidence: EV/EBITDA (54).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 16, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 29 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 21
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Full House Resorts, Inc. own, lease, develop and operate gaming facilities throughout the country. Our properties include American Place in Waukegan, Illinois; Silver Slipper Casino and Hotel in Hancock County, Mississippi; Chamonix Casino Hotel and Bronco Billy's Casino in Cripple Creek, Colorado; Rising Star Casino Resort in Rising Sun, Indiana; and Grand …
Full company description
Full House Resorts, Inc. own, lease, develop and operate gaming facilities throughout the country. Our properties include American Place in Waukegan, Illinois; Silver Slipper Casino and Hotel in Hancock County, Mississippi; Chamonix Casino Hotel and Bronco Billy's Casino in Cripple Creek, Colorado; Rising Star Casino Resort in Rising Sun, Indiana; and Grand Lodge Casino, located within the Hyatt Regency Lake Tahoe Resort, Spa and Casino in Incline Village, Nevada. Full House Resorts, Inc. was founded in 1987 and incorporated on January 5th 1987 in Delaware, USA.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Full House Resorts, Inc reported revenue of $302M in FY2025 versus $180M in FY2021, a compound +13.8%/yr. Reported net income was −$40.2M in FY2025.
FLL screens 26% overvalued. Compare with Las Vegas Sands Corp →
Peer Group
Resorts & Casinos · 76 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Resorts & Casinos median · lower = cheaper
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Resorts & Casinos stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 16, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Las Vegas Sands Corp LVS | $44.79 | $52.27 | +17% |
| Galaxy Entertainment Group 0027 | HK$34.20 | HK$41.44 | +21% |
| Sands China Ltd 1928 | HK$13.08 | HK$2.05 | -84% |
| MGM Resorts International, through its subsidiaries, MGM | $46.13 | $13.70 | -70% |
| Wynn Resorts, Limited WYNN | $97.05 | $69.39 | -29% |
| Red Rock Resorts, Inc RRR | $64.75 | $17.09 | -74% |
| Boyd Gaming Corporation BYD | $87.64 | $151.24 | +73% |
| Caesars Entertainment, Inc CZR | $29.91 | $80.92 | +171% |
| Genting Singapore Limited G13 | 0.6200 SGD | 0.6900 SGD | +11% |
| Vail Resorts, Inc MTN | $150.14 | $125.02 | -17% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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