Flight Centre Travel Group (FLT) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · AU · Market cap A$2.5B
Fair value as of: Jul 18, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 22 days ago
Share price +9.6% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 14% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- Solid but not exceptional quality (47/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- Our model range runs from A$8.20 (bear) to A$14.61 (bull), base A$11.68. The closer the price sits to the lower half, the larger the margin of safety.
- Quality 47/100 (below-average quality) with high evidence: the data supports the verdict.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$9.62 – A$22.77 · fair‑value band A$8.20 – A$14.61 · the A$13.65 price screens above the A$11.68 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.
Analysis
Flight Centre Travel Group (FLT) currently trades at A$13.65, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$11.68, implying the stock looks roughly 14.4% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 47/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Flight Centre Travel Group generated revenue of A$2.9B at a net margin of 3.8%. Revenue grew 6.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 9.0%. Net debt stands at A$49.9M. Fundamentals as of Jul 18, 2026
Our scenario range runs from A$8.20 (bear case) to A$14.61 (bull case); at A$13.65, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat. The share trades about 17% below its 52-week high and 42% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at -16% fair-value upside, at -14%, FLT screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (A$13.27) versus Asset-Based (A$3.98). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 18, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 47 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 57
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Flight Centre Travel Group Limited provides travel retailing services for the leisure and corporate sectors in Australia, New Zealand, the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, Asia, and internationally.
Full company description
Flight Centre Travel Group Limited provides travel retailing services for the leisure and corporate sectors in Australia, New Zealand, the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, Asia, and internationally. The company offers leisure travel services for the niche sectors, as well as mass, youth, premium, and cruise markets; and corporate travel services for organizations of various sizes across industries, as well as supplies products to its national and international network, or travel retail outlets. It also provides tour operations, hotel management, and destination management services. In addition, the company offers other travel related services, including foreign currency exchange and travel academies; recruitment marketing and bike retailing; and employee benefit services. It provides its services primarily under the Flight Centre brand, as well as other travel brands. The company was formerly known as Flight Centre Limited and changed its name to Flight Centre Travel Group Limited in November 2013. Flight Centre Travel Group Limited was incorporated in 1987 and is headquartered in South Brisbane, Australia.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Flight Centre Travel Group reported revenue of A$2.8B in FY2025 versus A$396M in FY2021, a compound +62.8%/yr. Reported net income was A$109M in FY2025.
FLT screens 14% overvalued. Compare with Booking Holdings →
Peer Group
Travel Services · 90 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Travel Services median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 35/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Travel Services stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 18, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Booking Holdings BKNG | $182.80 | $152.94 | -16% |
| Airbnb, Inc ABNB | $148.62 | $57.47 | -61% |
| Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd RCL | $286.96 | $215.19 | -25% |
| Viking Holdings VIK | $100.69 | $43.51 | -57% |
| Carnival Corporation CCL | $26.41 | $31.36 | +19% |
| Expedia Group EXPE | $268.77 | $248.63 | -7% |
| Trip.com Group TCOM | $42.45 | $88.82 | +109% |
| Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings NCLH | $19.46 | $20.28 | +4% |
| Global Business Travel Group GBTG | $9.40 | $4.17 | -56% |
| Travel + Leisure Co TNL | $73.27 | $27.29 | -63% |
Compare Flight Centre Travel Group with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Explore undervalued stocks
More undervalued Consumer Cyclical stocks →
Frequently asked questions
Is Flight Centre Travel Group (FLT) overvalued or undervalued?
What is the fair value of FLT?
What is the quality score of FLT?
What is the revenue of Flight Centre Travel Group (FLT)?
What is the net profit margin of FLT?
Does Flight Centre Travel Group pay a dividend?
How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
Track Flight Centre Travel Group and try Pro for 14 days
One email gets you 14 days of full Pro (review alerts, the 35,000+ stock screener, the diversification check) plus the monthly Top-25 report of the most undervalued quality stocks. No card, cancel anytime.
Zero risk: nothing is ever charged. After 14 days you decide whether to stay.