Ferrexpo plc (FXPO) Fair Value & Analysis
Basic Materials · GB · Market cap 168M GBX
Fair value as of: Jul 16, 2026
From 8 valuation models · updated today
Fair value updated Jul 16, 2026 — revised from £1.50 to £0.5900 (−60.7%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price −33.1% over the past month.
Price vs Fair Value (12 months)
12‑month range £0.2858 – £0.8090 · fair‑value band £0.4900 – £0.7000 · the £0.2858 price screens below the £0.5900 fair value. As of Jul 16, 2026.
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Ferrexpo plc (FXPO) currently trades at £0.2858, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is £0.5900 — implying the stock looks roughly 106.4% undervalued today. We read business quality at 39/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: medium) — always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, Ferrexpo plc generated revenue of £837M at a net margin of -36.0%. Revenue declined 17.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -33.1%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of £101M. Fundamentals as of Jul 16, 2026
Our scenario range runs from £0.4900 (bear case) to £0.7000 (bull case); at £0.2858, the current price sits below that range. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at -31% fair-value upside — at 106%, FXPO screens cheaper than that median.
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals (EODHD) · as of Jul 16, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
About the company
Ferrexpo plc, together with its subsidiaries, mines for, develops, processes, produces, markets, exports, and sells iron ore pellets to the metallurgical industry. It operates two mines and a processing plant near Kremenchuk in Ukraine; a fleet of vessels operating on the Rhine and Danube waterways; and an ocean-going vessel, which provides top-off services. The company is involved in mining, and ore processing metallurgical beneficiation and pelletizer plants, as well as transportation and logistics, and marketing business. It has operation in Turkey, rest of Europe, China, South East Asia, the Middle East, and North Africa. It serves premium steel mills. The company was incorporated in 2005 and is headquartered in Baar, Switzerland.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2020 – FY2024 · reported fiscal years
Ferrexpo plc reported revenue of £933M in FY2024 versus £1.7B in FY2020, a compound −13.9%/yr. Reported net income was −£50.0M in FY2024.
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Similar stocks
10 more Steel stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 16, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nucor Corporation N1UE34 | R$108.76 | R$33.45 | -69% |
| ArcelorMittal S.A ARMT34 | R$172.80 | R$119.18 | -31% |
| JSW Steel Limited JSWSTEEL | ₹1,282 | ₹1,113 | -13% |
| Tata Steel Limited TATASTEEL | ₹206.77 | ₹131.96 | -36% |
| Baoshan Iron & Steel Co 600019 | ¥5.74 | ¥7.78 | +36% |
| China Steel Corporation 2002A | 38.25 TWD | 9.37 TWD | -76% |
| POSCO Holdings 005490 | 363,000 KRW | 143,097 KRW | -61% |
| Companhia Siderúrgica Nacional, SID | 13,670 ARS | 14,537 ARS | +6% |
| Jindal Steel Limited JINDALSTEL | ₹1,132 | ₹516.27 | -54% |
| Lloyds Metals and Energy Limited LLOYDSME | ₹1,779 | ₹1,314 | -26% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data — nothing guessed.
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Not financial advice · no buy/sell recommendation. Model-based estimates are not certainties; their reliability depends on data quality and assumptions.