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Ganga Forging Limited (GANGAFORGE) Fair Value & Analysis

Industrials · IN · Market cap ₹400M

GF Ganga Forging Limited GANGAFORGE · NSE
Price₹2.62
Fair Value₹2.24
Upside-14.5%
Quality13/100
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Expensive Growth
Loss-making · -10.3% net margin
Low debt · negative free cash flow
Trails peers (3/9)
Narrow moat 8/100
Evidence: Low Range ₹1.68 – ₹3.34 Share as image

Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026

From 1 valuation models · updated 3 days ago

Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from ₹1.13 to ₹2.24 (+98.2%) since Aug 6, 2026. Share price +32.3% over the past month.

Below-average quality, and screening another 15% overvalued on our models.

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What matters now

  • A fairly wide model range (₹1.68 to ₹3.34) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
  • Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

₹22.70 ₹1.67 Fair Value ₹2.24 Apr 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range ₹1.67 – ₹22.70 · fair‑value band ₹1.68 – ₹3.34 · the ₹2.62 price screens above the ₹2.24 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

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Analysis

Ganga Forging Limited (GANGAFORGE) currently trades at ₹2.62, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ₹2.24, implying the stock looks roughly 14.5% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 13/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: low).

Over the trailing twelve months, Ganga Forging Limited generated revenue of ₹356M at a net margin of -10.3%. Revenue declined 23.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -12.0%. Net debt stands at ₹200M. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026

Our scenario range runs from ₹1.68 (bear case) to ₹3.34 (bull case); at ₹2.62, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 37% below its 52-week high and 40% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -59% fair-value upside, at -15%, GANGAFORGE screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model Bear Bear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull Bull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
NCAV (Graham) ₹0.8400 ₹1.13 ₹1.68 50
All 1 models by family
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) ₹0.8400 ₹1.13 ₹1.68 50

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Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) ₹356M
Revenue growth (YoY) -23.9%
Net margin -10.3%
Return on equity -12.0%
Free cash flow −₹41.0M FY2026
Operating margin 5.6%
More key figures
EPS (TTM) ₹-21.45
EPS growth (YoY) -85.2%
Net debt ₹200M FY2026

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 13/100

Of which business quality 18 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 32

Profitability 11
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 0
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 3
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 37
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 19
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 51
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 26
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 20
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 37
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Ganga Forging Limited manufactures and sells steel forging parts and machine components for automotive and non-automotive sectors in India.

Full company description

Ganga Forging Limited manufactures and sells steel forging parts and machine components for automotive and non-automotive sectors in India. It offers forged crankshafts, crankshaft single and double cylinders, straight and inclined connecting rods, forged and big yokes, trunnion-pins, spiders/crosses, forged trunnion shafts, forged flanges and clamps, and blind flanges, as well as socket clevises, anchor shackles, and dead-end pin electrical power transmission parts. The company also provides aluminum forging products. It serves clients in railways, construction equipment, agricultural machinery and equipment, earth moving and other industries. The company was incorporated in 1988 and is based in Rajkot, India.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years

Ganga Forging Limited reported revenue of ₹356M in FY2026 versus ₹288M in FY2022, a compound +5.4%/yr. Reported net income was −₹36.5M in FY2026.

Growth Quality 28/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Latest Revenue (FY 2026)
₹356M
Latest YoY
−17.6%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+2.2%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+9.5%
Avg. growth/yr (13Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+7.0%
Revenue +5.4%/yr
FY22 ₹288M
FY23 ₹334M
FY24 ₹372M
FY25 ₹432M
FY26 ₹356M
Net income
FY22 ₹10.3M
FY23 ₹16.6M
FY24 ₹4.4M
FY25 ₹6.1M
FY26 −₹36.5M
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2015-2026) +0.5 % p.a.
Revenue per share +8.0 pp

of which total revenue +11.0 pp · buybacks/dilution −3.0 pp

EBIT margin −7.5 pp
Tax rate −2.9 pp
Residual (interest, one-offs) +2.9 pp

Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

GANGAFORGE screens 15% overvalued. Compare with Carpenter Technology Corporation →

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Ganga Forging Limited Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/GANGAFORGE

Peer Group

Metal Fabrication · 249 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 18 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −15% · Above median
Return on assets -3% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM) -10% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 6% · Above median
Revenue growth -24% · Bottom 25%
Debt / equity 0.29× · Higher than 75% of peers

Valuation Multiples vs Metal Fabrication median · lower = cheaper

P/S (TTM) 0.01× · Cheaper than 75% of peers

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 14 · sector 0
FUTURE 0 · sector 33
PAST 0 · sector 19
HEALTH 85 · sector 95
DIVIDEND 0 · sector 28

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

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Frequently asked questions

Is Ganga Forging Limited (GANGAFORGE) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ₹2.24 versus a price of ₹2.62, about −15% (overvalued).
What is the fair value of GANGAFORGE?
Our model-based fair value for Ganga Forging Limited is ₹2.24 (as of Aug 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is ₹2.62.
What is the quality score of GANGAFORGE?
Ganga Forging Limited has a Quality Score of 13/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Ganga Forging Limited (GANGAFORGE)?
Ganga Forging Limited reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ₹356M (latest available figure, as of Aug 13, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of GANGAFORGE?
The net profit margin of Ganga Forging Limited is about -10.3%, meaning it is currently running at a net loss. Based on the latest reported figures.

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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