Ganga Forging Limited (GANGAFORGE) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 30, 2026: fair value of Ganga Forging Limited ₹2.24, price ₹1.54, upside +45.5%, quality 13 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ₹1.40 – ₹22.70 · fair‑value band ₹1.68 – ₹3.34 · the ₹1.54 price screens below the ₹2.24 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
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Ganga Forging Limited manufactures and sells steel forging parts and machine components for automotive and non-automotive sectors in India.
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Ganga Forging Limited manufactures and sells steel forging parts and machine components for automotive and non-automotive sectors in India. It offers forged crankshafts, crankshaft single and double cylinders, straight and inclined connecting rods, forged and big yokes, trunnion-pins, spiders/crosses, forged trunnion shafts, forged flanges and clamps, and blind flanges, as well as socket clevises, anchor shackles, and dead-end pin electrical power transmission parts. The company also provides aluminum forging products. It serves clients in railways, construction equipment, agricultural machinery and equipment, earth moving and other industries. The company was incorporated in 1988 and is based in Rajkot, India.
Stock analysis
Ganga Forging Limited (GANGAFORGE) currently trades at ₹1.54, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ₹2.24, implying the stock looks roughly 31.2% undervalued today.
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Valuation
How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 96/100, which puts the evidence level at low.
Scenario range: ₹1.68 (bear) to ₹3.34 (bull), the price of ₹1.54 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 13/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Ganga Forging Limited reported revenue of ₹356M in FY2026 versus ₹288M in FY2022, a compound +5.4%/yr. Reported net income was −₹36.5M in FY2026.
Key figures
Market cap ₹400M (≈ $4.2M) · P/S ratio 1.12 · EPS (TTM) ₹−21.45 · Net margin −10.3% · Return on equity −12.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.7% · Operating margin 5.6% · Revenue (TTM) ₹356M.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 62% below its 52-week high and 10% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −57% fair-value upside, at 45%, GANGAFORGE screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear ₹1.68Fair Value ₹2.24Bull ₹3.34
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.28/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
−17.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.5%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +7.4% a year
Revenue growth 13 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.0%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
3.7% (2021) → −9.2% (2026)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2026 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Metal Fabrication · 256 stocks
Beats the industry median on 3/8 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score18 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside+45.5% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on assets−3.5% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)−10.3% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)5.6% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−23.9% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.29× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Metal Fabrication median · lower = cheaper
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Is Ganga Forging Limited (GANGAFORGE) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ₹2.24 versus a price of ₹1.54, about +45% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of GANGAFORGE?
Our model-based fair value for Ganga Forging Limited is ₹2.24 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ₹1.54.
What is the quality score of GANGAFORGE?
Ganga Forging Limited has a Quality Score of 13/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Ganga Forging Limited (GANGAFORGE)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ₹2.24 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario ₹1.68, optimistic scenario ₹3.34. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Ganga Forging Limited stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ₹2.24, about +45% upside versus a price of ₹1.54 (undervalued). Cautious scenario ₹1.68, optimistic scenario ₹3.34. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Ganga Forging Limited (GANGAFORGE)?
Ganga Forging Limited reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ₹356M (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Ganga Forging Limited (GANGAFORGE)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Ganga Forging Limited it is ₹2.24 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of ₹1.54. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Ganga Forging Limited stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, GANGAFORGE trades below its calculated fair value: price ₹1.54, fair value ₹2.24, a gap of about +45% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of GANGAFORGE?
No. The price is what the market pays today (₹1.54); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (₹2.24). For Ganga Forging Limited the two are ₹0.7000 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Ganga Forging Limited worth?
The market values Ganga Forging Limited at about ₹400M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is ₹1.54; our models calculate a fair value of ₹2.24 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about GANGAFORGE?
Our models span a range for Ganga Forging Limited: cautious scenario ₹1.68, base ₹2.24, optimistic ₹3.34 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price ₹1.54). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Ganga Forging Limited (GANGAFORGE)?
Balance-sheet figures for Ganga Forging Limited (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity −12.0%, debt of 0.29 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 13/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is GANGAFORGE from its 52-week high?
Ganga Forging Limited trades at ₹1.54, about 62% below its 52-week high of ₹4.02 and 10% above the low of ₹1.40 (as of Sep 30, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ₹2.24 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Ganga Forging Limited?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value ATI Inc, Carpenter Technology Corporation, Mueller Industries, Inc, Bharat Forge Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Ganga Forging Limited stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price ₹1.54, calculated fair value ₹2.24 (+45%), Quality Score 13/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of GANGAFORGE calculated?
We run Ganga Forging Limited through 1 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ₹2.24, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.7 % above its aggregate fair value. Ganga Forging Limited currently trades 31 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Ganga Forging Limited (GANGAFORGE)?
The closing price on Sep 30, 2026 was ₹1.54. Our model-based fair value is ₹2.24, about +45% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Ganga Forging Limited right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (13/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The price is below even our cautious bear case (₹1.68). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range (₹1.68 to ₹3.34) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Ganga Forging Limited (GANGAFORGE) come from?
Earnings per share at Ganga Forging Limited grew +0.5 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +8.0 %, EBIT margin −7.5 %, tax rate −2.9 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +3.6 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Ganga Forging Limited
How large is the market capitalisation of Ganga Forging Limited (GANGAFORGE)?
The market capitalisation of Ganga Forging Limited is ₹400M (≈ $4.2M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Ganga Forging Limited (GANGAFORGE)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Ganga Forging Limited is 1.12 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Ganga Forging Limited (GANGAFORGE)?
Earnings per share at Ganga Forging Limited are ₹−21.45. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Ganga Forging Limited (GANGAFORGE)?
The net margin of Ganga Forging Limited is −10.3% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Ganga Forging Limited (GANGAFORGE)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Ganga Forging Limited is −12.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Ganga Forging Limited (GANGAFORGE)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Ganga Forging Limited is 1.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Ganga Forging Limited (GANGAFORGE)?
The operating margin of Ganga Forging Limited is 5.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Ganga Forging Limited (GANGAFORGE)?
Revenue at Ganga Forging Limited is growing −23.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +2.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Ganga Forging Limited (GANGAFORGE)?
Earnings per share at Ganga Forging Limited are growing −85.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Ganga Forging Limited (GANGAFORGE) generate?
The free cash flow of Ganga Forging Limited is −₹41.0M (fiscal year 2026). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Ganga Forging Limited (GANGAFORGE) carry?
The net debt of Ganga Forging Limited is ₹200M (fiscal year 2026). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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