Gevo Inc (GEVO) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Gevo Inc stock $0.89, price $1.39, that is 36.0% below the price, quality 41 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with one of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $0.4980 – $7.94 · fair‑value band $0.6600 – $1.33 · the $1.39 price screens above the $0.8900 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 6, 2026.
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Gevo, Inc. operates as a carbon abatement company.
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It operates in four segments: Gevo, GevoFuels, GevoRNG, and GevoND. The company offers sustainable aviation fuel, motor fuels, and chemicals and materials; certain specialty fuels, on-road fuels, and certain products for the food chain comprising protein and feeds; hydrocarbons for gasoline, racing fuel blend stocks, and diesel fuel; ethylene and butenes; plastics and materials; and renewable natural gas, isobutanol, and isooctane.
It is also involved in development, construction, and operation of Alcohol-to-Jet projects; provision of GevoRNG, a project which leverages anaerobic digestion technology to capture and convert methane emissions into renewable natural gas; and operates Verity platform that tracks, measures, and verifies various attributes throughout the supply chain.
In addition, it offers products manufactured by ethanol plant, including ethanol and distillers grains. The company was formerly known as Methanotech, Inc. and changed its name to Gevo, Inc. in March 2006. Gevo, Inc. was incorporated in 2005 and is headquartered in Englewood, Colorado.
Stock analysis
Gevo Inc (GEVO) currently trades at $1.39, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $0.8900, 36% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 95/100, which puts the data coverage at low.
Scenario range: $0.6600 (bear) to $1.33 (bull), the price of $1.39 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 41/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Gevo Inc reported revenue of $161M in FY2025 versus $533K in FY2021, a compound +316.6%/yr. Reported net income was −$33.8M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $330M Small · P/S ratio 1.59 · EPS (TTM) $−0.9100 · Net margin −120% · Return on equity −55.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) −11.0% (5-year average) · Operating margin −76.8% · Revenue (TTM) $178M.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 8 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 50% below its 52-week high and 25% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −43% fair-value upside, at −36%, GEVO screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$0.6600Fair Value $0.8900Bull$1.33
Price $1.39 · Downside -36.0%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, 2 officers or directors bought shares worth $96,375, most recently on Aug 21, 2026. Over the same period, 7 people sold shares worth $1.7M. Buying cluster
SalePatrick R. GruberDirector4× since May 27, 2026: 595,007 shares, avg. $1.56$928,379Sep 3, 202610b5-1 plan
SalePaul D BloomCEO, Director4× since May 27, 2026: 143,534 shares, avg. $1.63$234,402Sep 3, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleKimberly T BowronChief of Staff4× since May 27, 2026: 52,049 shares, avg. $1.62$84,286Sep 3, 202610b5-1 plan
BuyJames J BarberDirector50,000 shares at $1.54$77,000Aug 21, 2026
BuyDavid Michael KettnerChief Legal & Emrg Biz Officer12,500 shares at $1.55$19,375Aug 21, 2026
SaleOluwagbemileke Yusuf AgiriCFO4× since Dec 5, 2025: 186,493 shares, avg. $1.83$342,154Aug 6, 2026
SaleChristopher Michael RyanPresident & COO3× since Mar 30, 2026: 252,693 shares, avg. $2.25$568,881Jun 12, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleAndrew ShaferChief Mktg Cust & Brnd Officer8× since Nov 20, 2025: 73,760 shares, avg. $1.90$140,253Jun 12, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleDavaajargal GendenjamtsVP Acctg and Treasurer2× since Dec 4, 2025: 6,853 shares, avg. $1.76$12,078Jun 12, 2026
SaleGary W. MizeDirector107,100 shares at $2.34$250,614Mar 12, 2026
Plus 2 more entries from the last 12 months.
Plus 16 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.30/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+849.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+415.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+96.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +18.7% a year
Revenue growth 18 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+42.5%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−487.0% (2020) → −11.7% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (98 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Specialty Chemicals · 727 stocks
Beats the industry median on 1/9 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score41 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−36.0% · Below median
Profitability
Return on assets−4.7% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months)−119.9% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months)−76.8% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)7.1% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.35× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Specialty Chemicals median · lower = cheaper
P/B0.71× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (12 months)1.86× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)36· sector 67
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 26
HEALTH (low debt)82· sector 95
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 30
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Gevo Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/GEVO
Frequently asked questions
Is Gevo Inc (GEVO) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $0.8900 versus a price of $1.39, about 36% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of GEVO?
Our model-based fair value for Gevo Inc is $0.8900 (as of Nov 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $1.39.
What is the quality score of GEVO?
Gevo Inc has a Quality Score of 41/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Gevo Inc (GEVO)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $0.8900 (as of Nov 6, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario $0.6600, optimistic scenario $1.33. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Gevo Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $0.8900, about 36% lower versus a price of $1.39 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $0.6600, optimistic scenario $1.33. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Gevo Inc (GEVO)?
Gevo Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $178M (latest available figure, as of Nov 6, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Gevo Inc (GEVO)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Gevo Inc it is $0.8900 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026), against a price of $1.39. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models in 1 family (Asset-Based).
Is Gevo Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 6, 2026, GEVO trades above its calculated fair value: price $1.39, fair value $0.8900, a gap of about −36% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of GEVO?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($1.39); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($0.8900). For Gevo Inc the two are $0.5000 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Gevo Inc worth?
The market values Gevo Inc at about $330M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 6, 2026). Per share that is $1.39; our models calculate a fair value of $0.8900 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about GEVO?
Our models span a range for Gevo Inc: cautious scenario $0.6600, base $0.8900, optimistic $1.33 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026, price $1.39). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Gevo Inc (GEVO)?
Balance-sheet figures for Gevo Inc (as of Nov 6, 2026): return on equity −55.5%, debt of 0.35 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 41/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is GEVO from its 52-week high?
Gevo Inc trades at $1.39, about 50% below its 52-week high of $2.78 and 25% above the low of $1.11 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $0.8900 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Gevo Inc?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Linde plc, Ecolab Inc, The Sherwin-Williams Company, Nan Ya Plastics Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Gevo Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 6, 2026: price $1.39, calculated fair value $0.8900 (−36%), Quality Score 41/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of GEVO calculated?
We run Gevo Inc through 1 models from 1 family: Asset-Based. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $0.8900 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0% above its aggregate fair value. Gevo Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Gevo Inc (GEVO)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $1.39. Our model-based fair value is $0.8900, about 36% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Gevo Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($1.33). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (41/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range ($0.6600 to $1.33) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Gevo Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Gevo Inc (GEVO)?
The market capitalisation of Gevo Inc is $330M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Gevo Inc (GEVO)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Gevo Inc is 1.59 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Gevo Inc (GEVO)?
Earnings per share at Gevo Inc are $−0.9100. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Gevo Inc (GEVO)?
The net margin of Gevo Inc is −120% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Gevo Inc (GEVO)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Gevo Inc is −55.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Gevo Inc (GEVO)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Gevo Inc is −11.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Gevo Inc (GEVO)?
The operating margin of Gevo Inc is −76.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Gevo Inc (GEVO)?
Revenue at Gevo Inc is growing +7.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +415%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does Gevo Inc (GEVO) generate?
The free cash flow of Gevo Inc is −$43.5M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Gevo Inc (GEVO) carry?
The net debt of Gevo Inc is $166M (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Thin data
Nov 6, 2026
