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Data-driven stock valuation

Gerdau SA ADR (GGB) fair value: what the stock is really worth

We calculate from audited financials what Gerdau SA ADR is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily, free.

  1. Compare price with fair valuebelow fair value = cheap, above = expensive
  2. Check the quality50 and up solid, 75 and up strong
  3. Watch it or check another stockalert when fair value or trend changes

Basic Materials · US · Market cap $8.2B · ISIN US3737371050

At a glance

GS Gerdau SA ADR logo Gerdau SA ADR GGB · US
Price$4.97
Fair Value$2.61
Upside−47.4%
Quality51/100

A solid business, but trading 90% above our fair value of $2.61.

As of Sep 2, 2026, the fair value of Gerdau SA ADR is $2.61 per share against a price of $4.97, so the fair value sits 47% below the price. A model estimate from reported figures, not an analyst target.

!Weak Growth (revenue 5y +9.8 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 2.4% net margin
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
·3.05% dividend yield
!Mixed vs. peers (5/12)
!Narrow moat 28/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
!Weak on past: 12 out of 100
Evidence: Medium Range $1.95 to $4.94

Fair value as of: Sep 2, 2026

From 25 valuation models · updated 6 days ago

Fair value updated Sep 2, 2026, revised from $2.28 to $2.61 (+14.6%) since Aug 27, 2026. Share price −3.3% over the past month.

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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

  • Solid but not exceptional quality (51/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
  • A fairly wide model range ($1.95 to $4.94) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

$5.14 $2.21 Fair Value $2.61 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 2, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $2.21 – $5.14 · fair‑value band $1.95 – $4.94 · the $4.97 price screens above the $2.61 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 2, 2026.

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Analysis

Gerdau SA ADR (GGB) currently trades at $4.97, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $2.61, implying the stock looks roughly 90.2% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 51/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $18.85 per share, and 25 of the 25 models we run sit above the $4.97 price. Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $8.37, and 0 of the 25 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.

Over the trailing twelve months, Gerdau SA ADR generated revenue of $69.2B at a net margin of 2.4%. Revenue declined 3.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 3.1%. Net debt stands at $9.6B. Fundamentals as of Sep 2, 2026

Scenario range: $1.95 (bear) to $4.94 (bull), the price of $4.97 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 84% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −23% fair-value upside, at −47%, GGB screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model values the company its own way; the fair value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0 to 100) shows how complete a model's inputs are. How we calculate →

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
EPV $26.88 $32.05 $36.50 74
Residual Income $30.48 $29.64 $24.27 74
FCF DCF $4.17 $9.84 $18.36 73
All 25 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF $4.17 $9.84 $18.36 73
5Y Revenue Exit $22.88 $46.10 $76.67 68
5Y EBITDA Exit $29.78 $59.25 $94.55 71
5Y P/E Exit $5.86 $13.69 $22.03 66
10Y Revenue Exit $14.60 $33.88 $61.37 61
10Y EBITDA Exit $20.15 $42.90 $74.94 63
10Y P/E Exit $5.13 $11.67 $19.91 59
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd $7.54 $25.59 $34.32 62
Lynch FV $5.86 $8.37 $10.89 59
PEG = 1.0 $5.86 $8.37 $10.89 55
EPV $26.88 $32.05 $36.50 74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $9.03 $17.99 $27.24 64
DDM Multi-Stage $9.03 $15.27 $18.99 65
Multiples
P/E Multiple $14.14 $18.85 $23.57 63
P/S Multiple $14.14 $18.85 $23.57 58
P/B Multiple $14.14 $18.85 $23.57 55
EV/EBIT $41.24 $56.93 $72.62 66
EV/EBITDA $49.87 $68.45 $87.02 67
EV/Revenue $34.96 $52.45 $69.93 53
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $21.42 $28.71 $42.85 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF $4.27 $9.18 $16.04 73
Rev-Margin DCF $22.88 $45.43 $71.75 68
Economic Profit
Residual Income $30.48 $29.64 $24.27 74
ROIC Compounder $26.88 $32.05 $36.50 70
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E $12.39 $17.70 $23.01 65

Widest divergence: DCF Models ($33.88) versus Earnings-Based ($8.37). Highest evidence: EPV (74).

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Key figures & financial health

P/E ratio 26.1 as of Jun 20, 2026
P/S ratio 0.52 P/E × margin
EPS (TTM) $0.1600 price ÷ EPS = P/E 26.1
Dividend yield 3.1% payout 94.7%
Net margin 2.0% FY2025
Return on equity 3.1% TTM
More key figures
Profitability
Return on assets (EBIT) 15.3% avg 5y
Operating margin 10.5% TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM) $69.2B TTM
Revenue growth (YoY) −3.8% 3y avg −5.4%
EPS growth (YoY) +37.9%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow $1.1B FY2025
Net debt $9.6B FY2025 · ≈ 8.5 yrs of FCF

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 2, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 51/100

Of which business quality 53 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 81

Profitability 30
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 36
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 42
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 71
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 71
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 63
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 83
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 100
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 77
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

Gerdau S.A., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a steel producer company. It operates through Brazil Business, North America Business, and South America Business segments. The company offers rebars, bars, wires, thick plates, hot rolled coils, billets, blooms, plates, wire rods, and structural profiles.

Full company description

Gerdau S.A., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a steel producer company. It operates through Brazil Business, North America Business, and South America Business segments. The company offers rebars, bars, wires, thick plates, hot rolled coils, billets, blooms, plates, wire rods, and structural profiles. It also provides special steel products for agricultural, automotive, construction, distribution, energy, industrial, and mining markets. In addition, it operates mines that produce iron ore located in Brazil. The company was founded in 1901 and is headquartered in São Paulo, Brazil.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Gerdau SA ADR reported revenue of R$69.9B in FY2025 versus R$78.3B in FY2021, a compound −2.8%/yr. Reported net income was R$1.4B in FY2025, compounding −45.3%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 40/100
Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
$69.9B
Latest YoY
+4.2%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−5.4%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+9.8%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (27Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+13.5%
Value creation/yr (5Y, in BRL) ⓘEarnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years, adjusted) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year. Measured in BRL: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+1.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend yield: the value created per share and year.
Earnings growth per share−2.1%
Dividend yield3.1%
Trend ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.5Y −12.2% vs 10Y −1.3%, flattening
Operating margin (EBIT) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.13.4% (2020) → 8.0% (2025) · falling
Worst earnings drop139% (2015) (loss year, drop beyond 100%) · in USD
Revenue −2.8%/yr
FY21 R$78.3B
FY22 R$82.4B
FY23 R$68.9B
FY24 R$67.0B
FY25 R$69.9B
Net income −45.3%/yr
FY21 R$15.5B
FY22 R$11.4B
FY23 R$7.5B
FY24 R$4.6B
FY25 R$1.4B

GGB screens 90% overvalued. Compare with Nucor Corporation →

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Gerdau SA ADR Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/GGB

Earlier news

External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.

Peer Group

Steel · 401 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation
Quality Score 51 · Above median
Fair Value upside −47% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 3% · Below median
Return on assets 4% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 2% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 10% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth −4% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM) 3.1% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.25× · Above median

Valuation Multiples vs Steel median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 26.1× · Pricier than median
P/FCF 7.2× · Priciest 25%
PEG 90.95× · Priciest 25%

What the price implies (reverse DCF)

The inverse question: what free-cash-flow growth must Gerdau SA ADR deliver for ten years so that today's price is fair in our DCF model? Same formula, same discount rate as the fair value.

Implied FCF growth, 10 years+3.9 % per year
Achieved revenue growth, 5 years+9.8 % p.a.
Sector median revenue growth+3.2 %
FCF yield on price11.34 %
Discount rate (WACC) in the models9.5 %

The price demands less growth than the company recently delivered: even a weaker business would justify the price. Ranking of the largest stocks →

Context: sector, industry, market

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE0 · sector 12
FUTURE0 · sector 2
PAST12 · sector 16
HEALTH88 · sector 95
DIVIDEND61 · sector 49

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Insider activity: 40/100

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Steel stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 2, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Nucor Corporation NUE $261.07 $116.05 −56%
ArcelorMittal S.A MT €67.54 €45.93 −32%
JSW Steel Limited JSWSTEEL ₹1,296 ₹1,119 −14%
Steel Dynamics, Inc STLD $234.67 $127.14 −46%
500228 500228 ₹1,292 ₹1,079 −16%
Tata Steel Limited TATASTEEL ₹188.79 ₹145.39 −23%
Reliance, Inc RS $387.59 $217.81 −44%
Baoshan Iron & Steel Co 600019 ¥5.91 ¥8.07 +37%
POSCO Holdings PKX $63.13 $85.21 +35%
Jindal Steel & Power Limited JINDALSTEL ₹1,114 ₹429.44 −61%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Gerdau SA ADR (GGB) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 2, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $2.61 versus a price of $4.97, about −47% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of GGB?
Our model-based fair value for Gerdau SA ADR is $2.61 (as of Sep 2, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $4.97.
What is the quality score of GGB?
Gerdau SA ADR has a Quality Score of 51/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Gerdau SA ADR (GGB)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $2.61 (as of Sep 2, 2026) from 25 valuation models. Cautious scenario $1.95, optimistic scenario $4.94. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Gerdau SA ADR stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $2.61, about −47% upside versus a price of $4.97 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $1.95, optimistic scenario $4.94. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Gerdau SA ADR (GGB)?
Gerdau SA ADR reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $69.2B (latest available figure, as of Sep 2, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of GGB?
The net profit margin of Gerdau SA ADR is about 2.4%, meaning it keeps roughly 2.4% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Gerdau SA ADR pay a dividend?
Gerdau SA ADR currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.05% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 2, 2026).
What growth is priced into Gerdau SA ADR (GGB)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Gerdau SA ADR would have to grow free cash flow by +3.9 % per year for ten years (discount rate 9.5 %, then 2 % perpetual growth). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +9.8 % per year. As of Sep 2, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of GGB use?
Our models discount Gerdau SA ADR at 9.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.90, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
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