Gerdau SA (GGB) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 22, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Gerdau SA stock $4.40, price $5.07, upside -13.1%, quality 56 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 22, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $2.21 – $5.24 · fair‑value band $2.40 – $4.57 · the $5.07 price screens above the $4.40 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 22, 2026.
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Gerdau S.A., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a steel producer company. It operates through Brazil Business, North America Business, and South America Business segments.
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The company offers rebars, bars, wires, thick plates, hot rolled coils, billets, blooms, plates, wire rods, and structural profiles. It also provides special steel products for agricultural, automotive, construction, distribution, energy, industrial, and mining markets.
In addition, it operates mines that produce iron ore located in Brazil. The company was founded in 1901 and is headquartered in São Paulo, Brazil.
Stock analysis
Gerdau SA (GGB) currently trades at $5.07, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $4.40, 13.1% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $6.37 per share, and 8 of the 25 models we run sit above the $5.07 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $1.05, and 17 of the 25 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $2.40 (bear) to $4.57 (bull), the price of $5.07 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 56/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Gerdau SA ADR reported revenue of R$69.9B in FY2025 versus R$78.3B in FY2021, a compound −2.8%/yr. Reported net income was R$1.4B in FY2025, compounding −45.3%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $10.0B Large · P/E ratio 23.8 · P/S ratio 0.47 · EPS (TTM) $0.2200 · Dividend yield 3.1% · Net margin 2.0% · Return on equity 4.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 15.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 28 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 3% below its 52-week high and 57% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −43% fair-value upside, at −13%, GGB screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$2.40Fair Value $4.40Bull$4.57
Price $5.07 · Upside -13.1%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.0516 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+4.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−5.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +4.8% a year
Revenue growth 27 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.5%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in BRL ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted. Measured in BRL: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+1.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−2.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.1%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−12.2% vs −1.3%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.13% → 8%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+25.2%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+2.8%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in BRL, Brazil: IMF forecast 3.3% a year to 2030, 5.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +21.2% a year for the price and −0.5% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (86 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
AI conclusion: Gerdau lacks durable advantages in its commoditized steel operations with thin margins and low returns, while the port logistics study offers a potential operational improvement for iron ore.
Main risk: Exposure to volatile input costs and steel prices in the cyclical industry would directly pressure its already thin margins and low returns.
Gerdau is studying a joint bid for the Porto Sudeste port to secure better logistics for its iron ore operations and potential mining expansion. The move is framed as a logistical enabler rather than a strict requirement, with a decision expected within the next twelve months. Will this step meaningfully lower costs in its steelmaking chain or mainly add execution risk in a cyclical industry?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Steel · 401 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score56 · Above median
Fair Value upside−13.1% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)4.2% · Below median
Return on assets1.7% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)3.2% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)12.8% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)2.0% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months)3.1% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.25× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Steel median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Gerdau SA ADR Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/GGB
Frequently asked questions
Is Gerdau SA (GGB) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 22, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $4.40 versus a price of $5.07, about −13% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of GGB?
Our model-based fair value for Gerdau SA ADR is $4.40 (as of Oct 22, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $5.07.
What is the quality score of GGB?
Gerdau SA ADR has a Quality Score of 56/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Gerdau SA (GGB)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $4.40 (as of Oct 22, 2026) from 25 valuation models. Cautious scenario $2.40, optimistic scenario $4.57. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Gerdau SA ADR stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $4.40, about −13% upside versus a price of $5.07 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $2.40, optimistic scenario $4.57. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Gerdau SA (GGB)?
Gerdau SA ADR reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about R$69.5B (latest available figure, as of Oct 22, 2026).
Does Gerdau SA ADR pay a dividend?
Gerdau SA ADR currently shows a dividend yield of 3.09% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 22, 2026).
What growth is priced into Gerdau SA (GGB)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Gerdau SA ADR would have to grow free cash flow by +25.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +9.8 % per year. As of Oct 22, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of GGB use?
Our models discount Gerdau SA ADR at 9.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.89, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Gerdau SA ADR that is +25.2 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Gerdau SA (GGB) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Gerdau SA ADR grew +9.8 % a year. The price currently implies +25.2 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Gerdau SA (GGB) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.5 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Gerdau SA ADR (+25.2 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Gerdau SA (GGB)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 2.25 %: that much free cash flow Gerdau SA ADR produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Gerdau SA (GGB)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Gerdau SA ADR it is $4.40 per share (as of Oct 22, 2026), against a price of $5.07. It is the blended result of 25 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Gerdau SA ADR stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 22, 2026, GGB trades above its calculated fair value: price $5.07, fair value $4.40, a gap of about −13% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of GGB?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($5.07); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($4.40). For Gerdau SA ADR the two are $0.6660 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Gerdau SA ADR worth?
The market values Gerdau SA ADR at about $10.0B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 22, 2026). Per share that is $5.07; our models calculate a fair value of $4.40 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about GGB?
Our models span a range for Gerdau SA ADR: cautious scenario $2.40, base $4.40, optimistic $4.57 per share (as of Oct 22, 2026, price $5.07). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of GGB?
Gerdau SA ADR trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 23.8 (as of Oct 22, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $4.40 is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2025 it is 19.0 (reported for FY2025: 37.1). Other multiples: PEG 91.0, P/B 0.9, P/S 0.7, EV/EBITDA 5.8.
What is the PEG ratio of GGB?
The PEG ratio of Gerdau SA ADR is 90.95 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Oct 22, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Gerdau SA (GGB)?
Balance-sheet figures for Gerdau SA ADR (as of Oct 22, 2026): return on equity 4.2%, debt of 0.25 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 56/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is GGB from its 52-week high?
Gerdau SA ADR trades at $5.07, about 3% below its 52-week high of $5.24 and 57% above the low of $3.24 (as of Oct 22, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $4.40 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Gerdau SA ADR?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Nucor Corporation, ArcelorMittal S.A, Steel Dynamics, Inc, JSW Steel Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Gerdau SA ADR stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 22, 2026: price $5.07, calculated fair value $4.40 (−13%), Quality Score 56/100, from 25 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of GGB calculated?
We run Gerdau SA ADR through 25 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $4.40, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.2 % above its aggregate fair value. Gerdau SA ADR itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Gerdau SA (GGB)?
The closing price on Oct 22, 2026 was $5.07. Our model-based fair value is $4.40, about −13% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Gerdau SA ADR right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($4.57). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (56/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range ($2.40 to $4.57) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Gerdau SA ADR
How large is the market capitalisation of Gerdau SA (GGB)?
The market capitalisation of Gerdau SA ADR is $10.0B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Gerdau SA (GGB)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Gerdau SA ADR is 0.47 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Gerdau SA (GGB)?
Earnings per share at Gerdau SA ADR are $0.2200 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 23.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Gerdau SA (GGB)?
The dividend yield of Gerdau SA ADR is 3.1% (payout 36.2%, on adjusted earnings, reported 70.9%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Gerdau SA (GGB)?
The net margin of Gerdau SA ADR is 2.0% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Gerdau SA (GGB)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Gerdau SA ADR is 4.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Gerdau SA (GGB)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Gerdau SA ADR is 15.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Gerdau SA (GGB)?
The operating margin of Gerdau SA ADR is 12.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Gerdau SA (GGB)?
Revenue at Gerdau SA ADR is growing +2.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg −5.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Gerdau SA (GGB)?
Earnings per share at Gerdau SA ADR are growing +73.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Gerdau SA (GGB) carry?
The net debt of Gerdau SA ADR is R$9.6B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 8.5 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Oct 22, 2026