Golden Tobacco Limited (GOLDENTOBC) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 1, 2026: fair value of Golden Tobacco Limited ₹68.84, price ₹23.69, upside +190.6%, quality 56 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ₹21.41 – ₹181.75 · fair‑value band ₹48.19 – ₹89.49 · the ₹23.69 price screens below the ₹68.84 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
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Golden Tobacco Limited engages in the manufacturing, purchasing, processing, selling, and marketing tobacco and tobacco related products in India. The company offers cigarettes, slim/super slim cigarettes, cigars, cigarillos products, tobacco, and packed type cigarettes.
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Golden Tobacco Limited engages in the manufacturing, purchasing, processing, selling, and marketing tobacco and tobacco related products in India. The company offers cigarettes, slim/super slim cigarettes, cigars, cigarillos products, tobacco, and packed type cigarettes. It sells its products under the Panama, Chancellor, Golden's Gold Flake, Taj Chhap, Style, Esquire, Flair, June, and Just Black brand names. The company also exports its products to the United States, Europe, Russia, Singapore, Cambodia, Japan, the Middle East, and internationally. Golden Tobacco Limited was formerly known as GTC Industries Ltd. and changed its name to Golden Tobacco Limited in July 2008. Golden Tobacco Limited was founded in 1930 and is based in Vadodara, India.
Stock analysis
Golden Tobacco Limited (GOLDENTOBC) currently trades at ₹23.69, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ₹68.84, implying the stock looks roughly 65.6% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of ₹90.99 per share, and 9 of the 9 models we run sit above the ₹23.69 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at ₹36.01, and 0 of the 9 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: ₹48.19 (bear) to ₹89.49 (bull), the price of ₹23.69 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 56/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Golden Tobacco Limited reported revenue of ₹418M in FY2021 versus ₹456M in FY2017, a compound −2.2%/yr. Reported net income was ₹76.3M in FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap ₹417M (≈ $4.3M) · P/E ratio 13.2 · P/S ratio 2.41 · EPS (TTM) ₹1.79 · Net margin 18.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.4% · Operating margin −14.4% · Revenue (TTM) ₹327M.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 34% below its 52-week high and 11% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 25% fair-value upside, at 191%, GOLDENTOBC screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear ₹48.19Fair Value ₹68.84Bull ₹89.49
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.19/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+115.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−19.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−1.3%
Revenue growth 15 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−9.2%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 3 years), in INR ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 3 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in INR: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
−34.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−34.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2016 to 2021 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−28% → 30%
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 7.0%/yr over ~10Y (margins eroding too) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Tobacco · 36 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/9 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score56 · Below median
Fair Value upside+190.6% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)Negative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
Return on assets3.3% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)21.2% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)−14.4% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−18.4% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equityNegative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
Valuation Multiplesvs Tobacco median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)13.2× · Cheaper than median
P/BNegative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
P/S (TTM)1.28× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA5.5× · Cheapest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)100· sector 49
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 1
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 54
HEALTH (low debt)0· sector 96
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 76
PAST 0: with negative equity (buybacks among others) return on equity is not meaningfully computable.
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Is Golden Tobacco Limited (GOLDENTOBC) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ₹68.84 versus a price of ₹23.69, about +191% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of GOLDENTOBC?
Our model-based fair value for Golden Tobacco Limited is ₹68.84 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ₹23.69.
What is the quality score of GOLDENTOBC?
Golden Tobacco Limited has a Quality Score of 56/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Golden Tobacco Limited (GOLDENTOBC)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ₹68.84 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 9 valuation models. Cautious scenario ₹48.19, optimistic scenario ₹89.49. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Golden Tobacco Limited stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ₹68.84, about +191% upside versus a price of ₹23.69 (undervalued). Cautious scenario ₹48.19, optimistic scenario ₹89.49. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Golden Tobacco Limited (GOLDENTOBC)?
Golden Tobacco Limited reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ₹327M (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Golden Tobacco Limited (GOLDENTOBC)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Golden Tobacco Limited it is ₹68.84 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of ₹23.69. It is the blended result of 9 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Golden Tobacco Limited stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, GOLDENTOBC trades below its calculated fair value: price ₹23.69, fair value ₹68.84, a gap of about +191% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of GOLDENTOBC?
No. The price is what the market pays today (₹23.69); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (₹68.84). For Golden Tobacco Limited the two are ₹45.15 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Golden Tobacco Limited worth?
The market values Golden Tobacco Limited at about ₹417M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is ₹23.69; our models calculate a fair value of ₹68.84 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about GOLDENTOBC?
Our models span a range for Golden Tobacco Limited: cautious scenario ₹48.19, base ₹68.84, optimistic ₹89.49 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price ₹23.69). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of GOLDENTOBC?
Golden Tobacco Limited trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 13.2 (as of Sep 27, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ₹68.84 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/S 1.3, EV/EBITDA 5.5.
How solid is the balance sheet of Golden Tobacco Limited (GOLDENTOBC)?
Balance-sheet figures for Golden Tobacco Limited (as of Sep 27, 2026): negative equity, so no return on equity and no debt-to-equity ratio. They feed the Quality Score of 56/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is GOLDENTOBC from its 52-week high?
Golden Tobacco Limited trades at ₹23.69, about 34% below its 52-week high of ₹36.00 and 11% above the low of ₹21.41 (as of Oct 1, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ₹68.84 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Golden Tobacco Limited?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Philip Morris International Inc, British American Tobacco p.l.c., Altria Group, KT&G Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Golden Tobacco Limited stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price ₹23.69, calculated fair value ₹68.84 (+191%), Quality Score 56/100, from 9 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of GOLDENTOBC calculated?
We run Golden Tobacco Limited through 9 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ₹68.84, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.7 % above its aggregate fair value. Golden Tobacco Limited currently trades 66 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Golden Tobacco Limited (GOLDENTOBC)?
The closing price on Oct 1, 2026 was ₹23.69. Our model-based fair value is ₹68.84, about +191% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Golden Tobacco Limited right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (₹48.19). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (56/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range (₹48.19 to ₹89.49) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Golden Tobacco Limited
How large is the market capitalisation of Golden Tobacco Limited (GOLDENTOBC)?
The market capitalisation of Golden Tobacco Limited is ₹417M (≈ $4.3M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Golden Tobacco Limited (GOLDENTOBC)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Golden Tobacco Limited is 2.41 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Golden Tobacco Limited (GOLDENTOBC)?
Earnings per share at Golden Tobacco Limited are ₹1.79 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 13.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Golden Tobacco Limited (GOLDENTOBC)?
The net margin of Golden Tobacco Limited is 18.3% (fiscal year 2021). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Golden Tobacco Limited (GOLDENTOBC)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Golden Tobacco Limited is 1.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Golden Tobacco Limited (GOLDENTOBC)?
The operating margin of Golden Tobacco Limited is −14.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Golden Tobacco Limited (GOLDENTOBC)?
Revenue at Golden Tobacco Limited is growing −18.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg −19.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Golden Tobacco Limited (GOLDENTOBC)?
Earnings per share at Golden Tobacco Limited are growing −17.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Golden Tobacco Limited (GOLDENTOBC) generate?
The free cash flow of Golden Tobacco Limited is −₹1.6M (fiscal year 2021). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Golden Tobacco Limited (GOLDENTOBC) carry?
The net debt of Golden Tobacco Limited is ₹8.4M (fiscal year 2021). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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