Granite Point Mortgage Trust Inc (GPMT) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Granite Point Mortgage Trust Inc $0.36, price $0.84, upside -57.0%, quality 54 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $0.8277 – $9.11 · fair‑value band $0.3600 – $1.16 · the $0.8370 price screens above the $0.3600 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Granite Point Mortgage Trust Inc., a real estate investment trust, originates, invests in, and manages senior floating-rate commercial mortgage loans and other debt and debt-like commercial real estate investments in the United States.
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Granite Point Mortgage Trust Inc., a real estate investment trust, originates, invests in, and manages senior floating-rate commercial mortgage loans and other debt and debt-like commercial real estate investments in the United States. The company offers intermediate-term bridge or transitional financing for various purposes, including acquisitions, recapitalizations, and refinancing, as well as a range of business plans, such as lease-up, renovation, repositioning, and repurposing of the commercial property. It also originates and invests in mezzanine loans, subordinated mortgage interests, and other real estate securities, as well as preferred equity investments, unsecured notes, and other investments that are subordinated or otherwise junior in an issuer's capital structure. The company was founded in 2015 and is headquartered in New York, New York.
Stock analysis
Granite Point Mortgage Trust Inc (GPMT) currently trades at $0.8370, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $0.3600, implying the stock looks roughly 132.5% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $2.47 per share, and 6 of the 9 models we run sit above the $0.8370 price.
Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at $0.3500, and 3 of the 9 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: $0.3600 (bear) to $1.16 (bull), the price of $0.8370 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 54/100 (solid quality), in the Real Estate sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Granite Point Mortgage Trust Inc reported revenue of $145M in FY2025 versus $87.5M in FY2021, a compound +13.5%/yr. Reported net income was −$41.2M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $63.3M · P/S ratio 6.16 · EPS (TTM) $−1.07 · Net margin −28.3% · Return on equity −6.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) −1.0% · Operating margin −29.3% · Revenue growth (YoY) +92.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 70% below its 52-week high and 1% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at 54% fair-value upside, at −57%, GPMT screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $0.3600Fair Value $0.3600Bull $1.16
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.35/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+22.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +32.4% a year
Revenue growth 10 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+32.4%
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’25
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
129.4% (2017) → 24.1% (2022)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
more than +80 %
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
Compare Granite Point Mortgage Trust Inc with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.REIT - Mortgage · 39 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/12 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score55 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−57% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets−2% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)−28% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)−29% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth93% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)23.9% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.20× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs REIT - Mortgage median · lower = cheaper
P/B0.11× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (TTM)6.16× · Priciest 25%
P/FCF23.7× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA11.6× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 100
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 9
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 25
HEALTH (low debt)40· sector 0
DIVIDEND (yield)100· sector 100
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Granite Point Mortgage Trust Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/GPMT
Frequently asked questions
Is Granite Point Mortgage Trust Inc (GPMT) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $0.3600 versus a price of $0.8370, about −57% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of GPMT?
Our model-based fair value for Granite Point Mortgage Trust Inc is $0.3600 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $0.8370.
What is the quality score of GPMT?
Granite Point Mortgage Trust Inc has a Quality Score of 54/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Granite Point Mortgage Trust Inc (GPMT)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $0.3600 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 9 valuation models. Cautious scenario $0.3600, optimistic scenario $1.16. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Granite Point Mortgage Trust Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $0.3600, about −57% upside versus a price of $0.8370 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $0.3600, optimistic scenario $1.16. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What growth is priced into Granite Point Mortgage Trust Inc (GPMT)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Granite Point Mortgage Trust Inc would have to grow free cash flow by more than 80 % per year for five years (discount rate 14.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +6.7 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of GPMT use?
Our models discount Granite Point Mortgage Trust Inc at 14.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 1.64, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Granite Point Mortgage Trust Inc that is more than 80 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (14.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Granite Point Mortgage Trust Inc (GPMT) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Granite Point Mortgage Trust Inc grew +6.7 % a year. The price currently implies more than 80 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Granite Point Mortgage Trust Inc (GPMT) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Granite Point Mortgage Trust Inc (more than 80 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Granite Point Mortgage Trust Inc (GPMT)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 6.66 %: that much free cash flow Granite Point Mortgage Trust Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (14.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Granite Point Mortgage Trust Inc (GPMT)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Granite Point Mortgage Trust Inc it is $0.3600 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $0.8370. It is the blended result of 9 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Granite Point Mortgage Trust Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, GPMT trades above its calculated fair value: price $0.8370, fair value $0.3600, a gap of about −57% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of GPMT?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($0.8370); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($0.3600). For Granite Point Mortgage Trust Inc the two are $0.4770 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Granite Point Mortgage Trust Inc worth?
The market values Granite Point Mortgage Trust Inc at about $63.3M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $0.8370; our models calculate a fair value of $0.3600 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about GPMT?
Our models span a range for Granite Point Mortgage Trust Inc: cautious scenario $0.3600, base $0.3600, optimistic $1.16 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $0.8370). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Granite Point Mortgage Trust Inc (GPMT)?
Balance-sheet figures for Granite Point Mortgage Trust Inc (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity −6.4%, debt of 1.20 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 54/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is GPMT from its 52-week high?
Granite Point Mortgage Trust Inc trades at $0.8370, about 70% below its 52-week high of $2.84 and 1% above the low of $0.8277 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $0.3600 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Granite Point Mortgage Trust Inc?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value Annaly Capital Management, Inc, AGNC Investment Corp, Starwood Property Trust, Inc, Rithm Capital Corp, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Granite Point Mortgage Trust Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $0.8370, calculated fair value $0.3600 (−57%), Quality Score 54/100, from 9 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of GPMT calculated?
We run Granite Point Mortgage Trust Inc through 9 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $0.3600, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Granite Point Mortgage Trust Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Granite Point Mortgage Trust Inc (GPMT)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $0.8370. Our model-based fair value is $0.3600, about −57% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Granite Point Mortgage Trust Inc right now?
The model range is unusually wide ($0.3600 to $1.16). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (54/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Key figures of Granite Point Mortgage Trust Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Granite Point Mortgage Trust Inc (GPMT)?
The market capitalisation of Granite Point Mortgage Trust Inc is $63.3M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Granite Point Mortgage Trust Inc (GPMT)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Granite Point Mortgage Trust Inc is 6.16 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Granite Point Mortgage Trust Inc (GPMT)?
Earnings per share at Granite Point Mortgage Trust Inc are $−1.07. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Granite Point Mortgage Trust Inc (GPMT)?
The net margin of Granite Point Mortgage Trust Inc is −28.3% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Granite Point Mortgage Trust Inc (GPMT)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Granite Point Mortgage Trust Inc is −6.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Granite Point Mortgage Trust Inc (GPMT)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Granite Point Mortgage Trust Inc is −1.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Granite Point Mortgage Trust Inc (GPMT)?
The operating margin of Granite Point Mortgage Trust Inc is −29.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Granite Point Mortgage Trust Inc (GPMT)?
Revenue at Granite Point Mortgage Trust Inc is growing +92.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +22.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Granite Point Mortgage Trust Inc (GPMT)?
Earnings per share at Granite Point Mortgage Trust Inc are growing −95.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Granite Point Mortgage Trust Inc (GPMT) carry?
The net debt of Granite Point Mortgage Trust Inc is $1.1B (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Thin data
Sep 24, 2026