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Granite Point Mortgage Trust Inc (GPMT) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Granite Point Mortgage Trust Inc stock $9.33, price $3.34, upside +179.3%, quality 55 out of 100. Rating: strongly undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 5 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

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Real Estate US

GP Granite Point Mortgage Trust Inc logo Some data Nov 6, 2026

Granite Point Mortgage Trust Inc

GPMT · US
Undervalued, but in a downtrend

The stock costs 64% less than our calculation considers fair.

Fair value $9.33 · Strongly undervalued
Generates free cash flow
Ranks above peers (6/10)
Revenue last quarter +93% vs. a year ago.
Quality 55/100
Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +6.7 %/yr in USD)
Moderate debt
Insiders sold $55,647 (6M)
Some data
Loss-making · -28.3% net margin (FY2025)
Narrow moat 30/100
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$81.18 $3.34 Fair Value $9.33 Aug 2021 Nov 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 6, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $3.34 – $81.18 · fair‑value band $9.33 – $36.76 · the $3.34 price screens below the $9.33 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 6, 2026.

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Company profile

Granite Point Mortgage Trust Inc., a real estate investment trust, originates, invests in, and manages senior floating-rate commercial mortgage loans and other debt and debt-like commercial real estate investments in the United States.

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The company offers intermediate-term bridge or transitional financing for various purposes, including acquisitions, recapitalizations, and refinancing, as well as a range of business plans, such as lease-up, renovation, repositioning, and repurposing of the commercial property.

It also originates and invests in mezzanine loans, subordinated mortgage interests, and other real estate securities, as well as preferred equity investments, unsecured notes, and other investments that are subordinated or otherwise junior in an issuer's capital structure.

The company was founded in 2015 and is headquartered in New York, New York.

Stock analysis

Granite Point Mortgage Trust Inc (GPMT) currently trades at $3.34, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $9.33, implying the stock looks roughly 64% undervalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of $74.96 per share, and 5 of the 5 models we run sit above the $3.34 price.

Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at $15.76, and 0 of the 5 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.

Scenario range: $9.33 (bear) to $36.76 (bull), the price of $3.34 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 55/100 (solid quality), in the Real Estate sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

Granite Point Mortgage Trust Inc reported revenue of $145M in FY2025 versus $87.5M in FY2021, a compound +13.5%/yr. Reported net income was −$41.2M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $18.0M Micro · EPS (TTM) $−32.45 · Net margin −28.3% · Return on equity −15.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) −1.0% (5-year average) · Operating margin 124% · Revenue (TTM) −$29.0M · Revenue growth (YoY) +92.8%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 30 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 87% below its 52-week high and at its 52-week low.

For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at 56% fair-value upside, at 179%, GPMT screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $9.33 Fair Value $9.33 Bull $36.76
Price $3.34 · Upside +179.3%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
FCF DCF n/a $17.58 $69.31 74
Growth DCF n/a $15.76 $56.16 73
5Y EBITDA Exit n/a $19.57 $74.28 69
All 5 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF n/a $17.58 $69.31 74
5Y EBITDA Exit n/a $19.57 $74.28 69
10Y EBITDA Exit n/a $7.47 >$29.88 63
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $55.94 $74.96 $111.89 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF n/a $15.76 $56.16 73

Open the full fair value analysis →

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 55/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 5
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 80
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 47
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 22
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 100
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 4
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum 0
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 0
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 89
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Insider trades

In the last 6 months, 2 officers or directors sold shares worth $55,647 and none bought.

  • SaleStephen G KasnetDirector2× since Nov 12, 2025: 71,772 shares, avg. $2.24$160,673Jun 8, 2026
  • SaleTanuja M DehneDirector10,827 shares at $1.48$16,024Jun 8, 202610b5-1 plan
  • SaleHope B WoodhouseDirector14,674 shares at $2.70$39,620Nov 10, 2025

Plus 7 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.

Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.

Source: SEC Form 4, as of Nov 6, 2026. All filings at the SEC ↗

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 35/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+22.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +32.4% a year
Revenue growth 10 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+32.4%
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

Growth Forecast

A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+73.3%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +69.2% a year for the price.

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.REIT - Mortgage · 31 stocks

Beats the industry median on 7/10 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 55 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside +179.3% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on assets −2.3% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months) −28.3% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months) 123.8% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) 92.8% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months) 37.7% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 1.20× · Below median

Valuation Multiplesvs REIT - Mortgage median · lower = cheaper

Price / free cash flow (fiscal year) 6.7× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA 10.8× · Pricier than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)100 · sector 100
FUTURE (revenue growth)100 · sector 97
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 17
HEALTH (low debt)40 · sector 1
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 100

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more REIT - Mortgage stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
MFA Financial, Inc MFA $6.21 $14.69 +137% vs GPMT
AGNC Investment Corp AGNC $8.78 $18.66 +113% vs GPMT
Starwood Property Trust, Inc STWD $12.05 $25.00 +107% vs GPMT
Orchid Island Capital, Inc ORC $4.94 $8.77 +78% vs GPMT
ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc ARR $12.60 $19.59 +56% vs GPMT
Rithm Capital Corp RITM $9.23 $13.14 +42% vs GPMT
Annaly Capital Management, Inc NLY $18.75 $19.24 +3% vs GPMT
Ellington Financial Inc EFC $11.26 $11.12 −1% vs GPMT
Dynex Capital, Inc DX $10.68 $9.12 −15% vs GPMT
Ladder Capital Corp LADR $8.91 $7.56 −15% vs GPMT

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Granite Point Mortgage Trust Inc: fair value per Fair Value Calculator

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Granite Point Mortgage Trust Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/GPMT

Frequently asked questions

Is Granite Point Mortgage Trust Inc (GPMT) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $9.33 versus a price of $3.34, about +179% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of GPMT?
Our model-based fair value for Granite Point Mortgage Trust Inc is $9.33 (as of Nov 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $3.34.
What is the quality score of GPMT?
Granite Point Mortgage Trust Inc has a Quality Score of 55/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Granite Point Mortgage Trust Inc (GPMT)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $9.33 (as of Nov 6, 2026) from 5 valuation models. Cautious scenario $9.33, optimistic scenario $36.76. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Granite Point Mortgage Trust Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $9.33, about +179% upside versus a price of $3.34 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $9.33, optimistic scenario $36.76. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What growth is priced into Granite Point Mortgage Trust Inc (GPMT)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Granite Point Mortgage Trust Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +73.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +6.7 % per year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of GPMT use?
Our models discount Granite Point Mortgage Trust Inc at 11.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (nano), damped by beta 1.75, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Granite Point Mortgage Trust Inc that is +73.3 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (11.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Granite Point Mortgage Trust Inc (GPMT) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Granite Point Mortgage Trust Inc grew +6.7 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +73.3 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Granite Point Mortgage Trust Inc (GPMT) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Granite Point Mortgage Trust Inc (+73.3 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Granite Point Mortgage Trust Inc (GPMT)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 1.66 %: that much free cash flow Granite Point Mortgage Trust Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Granite Point Mortgage Trust Inc (GPMT)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Granite Point Mortgage Trust Inc it is $9.33 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026), against a price of $3.34. It is the blended result of 5 valuation models in 3 families (DCF Models, Asset-Based, Growth DCF).
Is Granite Point Mortgage Trust Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 6, 2026, GPMT trades below its calculated fair value: price $3.34, fair value $9.33, a gap of about +179% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of GPMT?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($3.34); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($9.33). For Granite Point Mortgage Trust Inc the two are $5.99 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Granite Point Mortgage Trust Inc worth?
The market values Granite Point Mortgage Trust Inc at about $18.0M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 6, 2026). Per share that is $3.34; our models calculate a fair value of $9.33 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about GPMT?
Our models span a range for Granite Point Mortgage Trust Inc: cautious scenario $9.33, base $9.33, optimistic $36.76 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026, price $3.34). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Granite Point Mortgage Trust Inc (GPMT)?
Balance-sheet figures for Granite Point Mortgage Trust Inc (as of Nov 6, 2026): return on equity −15.3%, debt of 1.20 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 55/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is GPMT from its 52-week high?
Granite Point Mortgage Trust Inc trades at $3.34, about 87% below its 52-week high of $25.56 and at the low of $3.34 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $9.33 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Granite Point Mortgage Trust Inc?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value Annaly Capital Management, Inc, AGNC Investment Corp, Rithm Capital Corp, Starwood Property Trust, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Granite Point Mortgage Trust Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 6, 2026: price $3.34, calculated fair value $9.33 (+179%), Quality Score 55/100, from 5 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of GPMT calculated?
We run Granite Point Mortgage Trust Inc through 5 models from 3 families: DCF Models, Asset-Based, Growth DCF. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $9.33 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Granite Point Mortgage Trust Inc currently trades 64% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Granite Point Mortgage Trust Inc (GPMT)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $3.34. Our model-based fair value is $9.33, about +179% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Granite Point Mortgage Trust Inc right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case ($9.33). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The model range is unusually wide ($9.33 to $36.76). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid quality (55/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.

Key figures of Granite Point Mortgage Trust Inc

How large is the market capitalisation of Granite Point Mortgage Trust Inc (GPMT)?
The market capitalisation of Granite Point Mortgage Trust Inc is $18.0M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What are the earnings per share of Granite Point Mortgage Trust Inc (GPMT)?
Earnings per share at Granite Point Mortgage Trust Inc are $−32.45. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Granite Point Mortgage Trust Inc (GPMT)?
The net margin of Granite Point Mortgage Trust Inc is −28.3% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Granite Point Mortgage Trust Inc (GPMT)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Granite Point Mortgage Trust Inc is −15.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Granite Point Mortgage Trust Inc (GPMT)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Granite Point Mortgage Trust Inc is −1.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Granite Point Mortgage Trust Inc (GPMT)?
The operating margin of Granite Point Mortgage Trust Inc is 124% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How much revenue does Granite Point Mortgage Trust Inc (GPMT) generate?
Granite Point Mortgage Trust Inc generates revenue of −$29.0M (last twelve months). Revenue of the last twelve months (TTM), the most recent full year, not the calendar year.
How fast is revenue growing at Granite Point Mortgage Trust Inc (GPMT)?
Revenue at Granite Point Mortgage Trust Inc is growing +92.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +22.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Granite Point Mortgage Trust Inc (GPMT)?
Earnings per share at Granite Point Mortgage Trust Inc are growing −95.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Granite Point Mortgage Trust Inc (GPMT) carry?
The net debt of Granite Point Mortgage Trust Inc is $1.1B (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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