Green Plains Renewable Energy Inc (GPRE) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Green Plains Renewable Energy Inc $11.33, price $15.11, upside -25.0%, quality 38 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $3.30 – $43.86 · fair‑value band $8.01 – $15.32 · the $15.11 price screens above the $11.33 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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Green Plains Inc. produces low-carbon fuels in the United States and internationally. It operates in two segments, Ethanol Production, and Agribusiness and Energy Services. The company produces, stores, and transports ethanol, distiller grains, and ultra-high protein and renewable corn oil.
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Green Plains Inc. produces low-carbon fuels in the United States and internationally. It operates in two segments, Ethanol Production, and Agribusiness and Energy Services. The company produces, stores, and transports ethanol, distiller grains, and ultra-high protein and renewable corn oil. It is also involved in the grain procurement and commodity marketing businesses; and marketing ethanol for a third-party producer, as well as buys and sells ethanol, distiller grains, renewable corn oil, grain, natural gas, and other commodities in various markets. In addition, the company provides grain drying and storage services to grain producers. The company was formerly known as Green Plains Renewable Energy, Inc. and changed its name to Green Plains Inc. in May 2014. Green Plains Inc. was incorporated in 2004 and is headquartered in Omaha, Nebraska.
Stock analysis
Green Plains Renewable Energy Inc (GPRE) currently trades at $15.11, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $11.33, implying the stock looks roughly 33.4% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of $12.06 per share, and 2 of the 11 models we run sit above the $15.11 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $7.33, and 9 of the 11 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $8.01 (bear) to $15.32 (bull), the price of $15.11 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 38/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Weak Growth: Growth has flattened: the last year, three and five years all grew more slowly than the long-term average.
Green Plains Renewable Energy Inc reported revenue of $2.1B in FY2025 versus $2.8B in FY2021, a compound −7.3%/yr. Reported net income was −$121M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $1.0B · P/S ratio 0.54 · EPS (TTM) $−0.1800 · Dividend yield 0.1% · Net margin −5.8% · Return on equity −1.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) −2.9% · Operating margin 10.0%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 37 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 21% below its 52-week high and 72% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −25% fair-value upside, at −25%, GPRE screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $8.01Fair Value $11.33Bull $15.32
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.27/100
Growth has flattened: the last year, three and five years all grew more slowly than the long-term average.
Revenue growth 1 year
−14.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−17.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −3.4% a year
Revenue growth 18 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+28.1%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−6.4% (2020) → −4.0% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+13.6%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+8.3%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +10.9% a year for the price and +5.8% for the forecasts.
Compare Green Plains Renewable Energy Inc with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Chemicals · 350 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/13 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score38 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−25% · Above median
Profitability
Return on assets1% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)−1% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)10% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−26% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)0.1% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.47× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Chemicals median · lower = cheaper
P/B1.33× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM)0.53× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF15.8× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA9.3× · Cheaper than median
PEG1.16× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 24
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 19
HEALTH (low debt)76· sector 94
DIVIDEND (yield)1· sector 31
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Green Plains Renewable Energy Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/GPRE
Frequently asked questions
Is Green Plains Renewable Energy Inc (GPRE) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $11.33 versus a price of $15.11, about −25% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of GPRE?
Our model-based fair value for Green Plains Renewable Energy Inc is $11.33 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $15.11.
What is the quality score of GPRE?
Green Plains Renewable Energy Inc has a Quality Score of 38/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Green Plains Renewable Energy Inc (GPRE)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $11.33 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 11 valuation models. Cautious scenario $8.01, optimistic scenario $15.32. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Green Plains Renewable Energy Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $11.33, about −25% upside versus a price of $15.11 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $8.01, optimistic scenario $15.32. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Green Plains Renewable Energy Inc (GPRE)?
Green Plains Renewable Energy Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $1.9B (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does Green Plains Renewable Energy Inc pay a dividend?
Green Plains Renewable Energy Inc currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.07% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into Green Plains Renewable Energy Inc (GPRE)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Green Plains Renewable Energy Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +13.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +1.7 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of GPRE use?
Our models discount Green Plains Renewable Energy Inc at 11.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 1.19, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Green Plains Renewable Energy Inc that is +13.6 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Green Plains Renewable Energy Inc (GPRE) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Green Plains Renewable Energy Inc grew +1.7 % a year. The price currently implies +13.6 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Green Plains Renewable Energy Inc (GPRE) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +1.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Green Plains Renewable Energy Inc (+13.6 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Green Plains Renewable Energy Inc (GPRE)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 6.32 %: that much free cash flow Green Plains Renewable Energy Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Green Plains Renewable Energy Inc (GPRE)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Green Plains Renewable Energy Inc it is $11.33 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $15.11. It is the blended result of 11 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Green Plains Renewable Energy Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, GPRE trades above its calculated fair value: price $15.11, fair value $11.33, a gap of about −25% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of GPRE?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($15.11); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($11.33). For Green Plains Renewable Energy Inc the two are $3.78 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Green Plains Renewable Energy Inc worth?
The market values Green Plains Renewable Energy Inc at about $1.0B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $15.11; our models calculate a fair value of $11.33 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about GPRE?
Our models span a range for Green Plains Renewable Energy Inc: cautious scenario $8.01, base $11.33, optimistic $15.32 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $15.11). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of GPRE?
The PEG ratio of Green Plains Renewable Energy Inc is 1.16 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 23, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Green Plains Renewable Energy Inc (GPRE)?
Balance-sheet figures for Green Plains Renewable Energy Inc (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity −1.9%, debt of 0.47 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 38/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is GPRE from its 52-week high?
Green Plains Renewable Energy Inc trades at $15.11, about 21% below its 52-week high of $19.23 and 72% above the low of $8.79 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $11.33 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Green Plains Renewable Energy Inc?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value BASF SE, Saudi Basic Industries Corporation, Ningxia Baofeng Energy Group, Dow Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Green Plains Renewable Energy Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $15.11, calculated fair value $11.33 (−25%), Quality Score 38/100, from 11 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of GPRE calculated?
We run Green Plains Renewable Energy Inc through 11 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $11.33, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Green Plains Renewable Energy Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Green Plains Renewable Energy Inc (GPRE)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $15.11. Our model-based fair value is $11.33, about −25% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Green Plains Renewable Energy Inc right now?
Weak quality (38/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. A fairly wide model range ($8.01 to $15.32) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Green Plains Renewable Energy Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Green Plains Renewable Energy Inc (GPRE)?
The market capitalisation of Green Plains Renewable Energy Inc is $1.0B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Green Plains Renewable Energy Inc (GPRE)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Green Plains Renewable Energy Inc is 0.54 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Green Plains Renewable Energy Inc (GPRE)?
Earnings per share at Green Plains Renewable Energy Inc are $−0.1800. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Green Plains Renewable Energy Inc (GPRE)?
The dividend yield of Green Plains Renewable Energy Inc is 0.1%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Green Plains Renewable Energy Inc (GPRE)?
The net margin of Green Plains Renewable Energy Inc is −5.8% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Green Plains Renewable Energy Inc (GPRE)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Green Plains Renewable Energy Inc is −1.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Green Plains Renewable Energy Inc (GPRE)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Green Plains Renewable Energy Inc is −2.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Green Plains Renewable Energy Inc (GPRE)?
The operating margin of Green Plains Renewable Energy Inc is 10.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Green Plains Renewable Energy Inc (GPRE)?
Revenue at Green Plains Renewable Energy Inc is growing −25.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg −17.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Green Plains Renewable Energy Inc (GPRE)?
Earnings per share at Green Plains Renewable Energy Inc are growing −75.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Green Plains Renewable Energy Inc (GPRE) carry?
The net debt of Green Plains Renewable Energy Inc is $326M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 5.1 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Some data
Sep 23, 2026