Gielda Papierow Wartosciowych w Warszawie SA (GPW) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Gielda Papierow Wartosciowych w Warszawie SA PLN 54.84, price PLN 99.00, upside -44.6%, quality 80 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 25.93 PLN – 106.70 PLN · fair‑value band 38.71 PLN – 75.51 PLN · the 99.00 PLN price screens above the 54.84 PLN fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Gielda Papierów Wartosciowych w Warszawie S.A., together with its subsidiaries, operates a stock exchange in Poland. It operates through Financial, Commodity, and Other segments.
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Gielda Papierów Wartosciowych w Warszawie S.A., together with its subsidiaries, operates a stock exchange in Poland. It operates through Financial, Commodity, and Other segments. The company trades in equities; equity-related financial instruments; other cash markets instruments, such as structured products, investment certificates, and exchange traded fund units; derivatives; corporate, municipal, co-operative, treasury, and mortgage bonds; debt instruments; and agricultural commodities, as well as provides listing, trading, clearing services for shares and bonds, and information services. It offers market operator and balancing services to electricity traders, producers, and industrial customers; trade operator and balancing entity services; WIBID and WIBOR benchmark calculation and distribution services; capital market education, promotion, and information activities; and training services, as well as leases and maintains office space. In addition, the company trades in electricity, natural gas, property rights in certificates of origin of electricity, and CO2 emission allowances, as well as engages in the operation of the register of certificates of origin of electricity and the register of guarantees of origin. Further, it operates as an exchange settlement system for transactions in exchange-traded commodities. The company operates in various markets, such as GPW Main Market, NewConnect, Catalyst, and Treasury BondSpot Poland, as well as the markets operated by Towarowa Gielda Energii S.A. and InfoEngine S.A. Gielda Papierów Wartosciowych w Warszawie S.A. was incorporated in 1991 and is based in Warsaw, Poland.
Stock analysis
Gielda Papierow Wartosciowych w Warszawie SA (GPW) currently trades at 99.00 PLN, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 54.84 PLN, implying the stock looks roughly 80.5% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of 55.17 PLN per share, and 0 of the 11 models we run sit above the 99.00 PLN price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at 18.06 PLN, and 11 of the 11 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: 38.71 PLN (bear) to 75.51 PLN (bull), the price of 99.00 PLN sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 80/100 (high quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Gielda Papierow Wartosciowych w Warszawie SA reported revenue of 552M PLN in FY2025 versus 408M PLN in FY2021, a compound +7.9%/yr. Reported net income was 195M PLN in FY2025, compounding +4.9%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 4.2B PLN (≈ $1.1B) · P/E ratio 19.4 · P/S ratio 6.85 · EPS (TTM) 5.11 PLN · Dividend yield 3.4% · Net margin 35.3% · Return on equity 18.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 11.2%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 52 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 7% below its 52-week high and 78% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −26% fair-value upside, at −45%, GPW screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 38.71 PLNFair Value 54.84 PLNBull 75.51 PLN
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (1.25 PLN per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.82/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+18.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +5.3% a year
Revenue growth 18 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.0%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+4.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+1.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.4%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.1% vs 0%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.47% → 37%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+19.5%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+6.6%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Poland: IMF forecast 3.1% a year to 2030, 4.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +15.9% a year for the price and +3.3% for the forecasts.
Compare Gielda Papierow Wartosciowych w Warszawie SA with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Financial Data & Stock Exchanges · 55 stocks
Beats the industry median on 11/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score79 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−45% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)19% · Below median
Return on assets9% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)36% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)42% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth28% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)3.4% · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Financial Data & Stock Exchanges median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)19.4× · Cheapest 25%
P/B0.96× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (TTM)1.84× · Cheapest 25%
P/FCF8.5× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA3.4× · Cheapest 25%
PEG3.94× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 69
PAST (return on equity)74· sector 77
HEALTH (low debt)100· sector 94
DIVIDEND (yield)69· sector 34
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Gielda Papierow Wartosciowych w Warszawie SA Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/GPW
Frequently asked questions
Is Gielda Papierow Wartosciowych w Warszawie SA (GPW) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 54.84 PLN versus a price of 99.00 PLN, about −45% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of GPW?
Our model-based fair value for Gielda Papierow Wartosciowych w Warszawie SA is 54.84 PLN (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 99.00 PLN.
What is the quality score of GPW?
Gielda Papierow Wartosciowych w Warszawie SA has a Quality Score of 80/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Gielda Papierow Wartosciowych w Warszawie SA (GPW)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 54.84 PLN (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 11 valuation models. Cautious scenario 38.71 PLN, optimistic scenario 75.51 PLN. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Gielda Papierow Wartosciowych w Warszawie SA stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 54.84 PLN, about −45% upside versus a price of 99.00 PLN (overvalued). Cautious scenario 38.71 PLN, optimistic scenario 75.51 PLN. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Gielda Papierow Wartosciowych w Warszawie SA (GPW)?
Gielda Papierow Wartosciowych w Warszawie SA reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 588M PLN (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Gielda Papierow Wartosciowych w Warszawie SA pay a dividend?
Gielda Papierow Wartosciowych w Warszawie SA currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.43% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Gielda Papierow Wartosciowych w Warszawie SA (GPW)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Gielda Papierow Wartosciowych w Warszawie SA would have to grow free cash flow by +19.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +6.5 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of GPW use?
Our models discount Gielda Papierow Wartosciowych w Warszawie SA at 10.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.55, country premium for Poland. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Gielda Papierow Wartosciowych w Warszawie SA that is +19.5 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Gielda Papierow Wartosciowych w Warszawie SA (GPW) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Gielda Papierow Wartosciowych w Warszawie SA grew +6.5 % a year. The price currently implies +19.5 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Gielda Papierow Wartosciowych w Warszawie SA (GPW) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.4 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Gielda Papierow Wartosciowych w Warszawie SA (+19.5 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Gielda Papierow Wartosciowych w Warszawie SA (GPW)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.06 %: that much free cash flow Gielda Papierow Wartosciowych w Warszawie SA produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Gielda Papierow Wartosciowych w Warszawie SA (GPW)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Gielda Papierow Wartosciowych w Warszawie SA it is 54.84 PLN per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of 99.00 PLN. It is the blended result of 11 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Gielda Papierow Wartosciowych w Warszawie SA stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, GPW trades above its calculated fair value: price 99.00 PLN, fair value 54.84 PLN, a gap of about −45% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of GPW?
No. The price is what the market pays today (99.00 PLN); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (54.84 PLN). For Gielda Papierow Wartosciowych w Warszawie SA the two are 44.16 PLN per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Gielda Papierow Wartosciowych w Warszawie SA worth?
The market values Gielda Papierow Wartosciowych w Warszawie SA at about 4.2B PLN (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is 99.00 PLN; our models calculate a fair value of 54.84 PLN per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about GPW?
Our models span a range for Gielda Papierow Wartosciowych w Warszawie SA: cautious scenario 38.71 PLN, base 54.84 PLN, optimistic 75.51 PLN per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price 99.00 PLN). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of GPW?
Gielda Papierow Wartosciowych w Warszawie SA trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 19.4 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 54.84 PLN is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 3.9, P/B 1.0, P/S 1.8, EV/EBITDA 3.4.
What is the PEG ratio of GPW?
The PEG ratio of Gielda Papierow Wartosciowych w Warszawie SA is 3.94 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 24, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Gielda Papierow Wartosciowych w Warszawie SA (GPW)?
Balance-sheet figures for Gielda Papierow Wartosciowych w Warszawie SA (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 18.6%. They feed the Quality Score of 80/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is GPW from its 52-week high?
Gielda Papierow Wartosciowych w Warszawie SA trades at 99.00 PLN, about 7% below its 52-week high of 106.70 PLN and 78% above the low of 55.65 PLN (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 54.84 PLN is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Gielda Papierow Wartosciowych w Warszawie SA?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value S&P Global Inc, CME Group, Moody's Corporation, Intercontinental Exchange, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Gielda Papierow Wartosciowych w Warszawie SA stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price 99.00 PLN, calculated fair value 54.84 PLN (−45%), Quality Score 80/100, from 11 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of GPW calculated?
We run Gielda Papierow Wartosciowych w Warszawie SA through 11 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 54.84 PLN, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Gielda Papierow Wartosciowych w Warszawie SA itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Gielda Papierow Wartosciowych w Warszawie SA (GPW)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was 99.00 PLN. Our model-based fair value is 54.84 PLN, about −45% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Gielda Papierow Wartosciowych w Warszawie SA right now?
A high-quality business (quality 80/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety. The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (75.51 PLN). The favourable scenario is already priced in. A fairly wide model range (38.71 PLN to 75.51 PLN) leaves room in how you read the outcome. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of Gielda Papierow Wartosciowych w Warszawie SA (GPW) come from?
Earnings per share at Gielda Papierow Wartosciowych w Warszawie SA grew −1.4 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −0.1 %, EBIT margin −5.2 %, tax rate +0.3 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +3.8 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Gielda Papierow Wartosciowych w Warszawie SA
How large is the market capitalisation of Gielda Papierow Wartosciowych w Warszawie SA (GPW)?
The market capitalisation of Gielda Papierow Wartosciowych w Warszawie SA is 4.2B PLN (≈ $1.1B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Gielda Papierow Wartosciowych w Warszawie SA (GPW)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Gielda Papierow Wartosciowych w Warszawie SA is 6.85 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Gielda Papierow Wartosciowych w Warszawie SA (GPW)?
Earnings per share at Gielda Papierow Wartosciowych w Warszawie SA are 5.11 PLN (price ÷ EPS = P/E 19.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Gielda Papierow Wartosciowych w Warszawie SA (GPW)?
The dividend yield of Gielda Papierow Wartosciowych w Warszawie SA is 3.4% (payout 66.5%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Gielda Papierow Wartosciowych w Warszawie SA (GPW)?
The net margin of Gielda Papierow Wartosciowych w Warszawie SA is 35.3% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Gielda Papierow Wartosciowych w Warszawie SA (GPW)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Gielda Papierow Wartosciowych w Warszawie SA is 18.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Gielda Papierow Wartosciowych w Warszawie SA (GPW)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Gielda Papierow Wartosciowych w Warszawie SA is 11.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Gielda Papierow Wartosciowych w Warszawie SA (GPW)?
The operating margin of Gielda Papierow Wartosciowych w Warszawie SA is 41.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Gielda Papierow Wartosciowych w Warszawie SA (GPW)?
Revenue at Gielda Papierow Wartosciowych w Warszawie SA is growing +27.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg +12.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Gielda Papierow Wartosciowych w Warszawie SA (GPW)?
Earnings per share at Gielda Papierow Wartosciowych w Warszawie SA are growing +38.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Gielda Papierow Wartosciowych w Warszawie SA (GPW) hold?
Gielda Papierow Wartosciowych w Warszawie SA holds more cash than debt, 200M PLN net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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