Gielda Papierów Wartosciowych w Warszawie S.A (GPW) Fair Value & Analysis
Financial Services · PL · Market cap 4.5B PLN
Fair value as of: Jul 16, 2026
From 11 valuation models · updated 24 days ago
Share price +8.1% over the past month.
A strong business, but screening 43% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- A high-quality business (quality 80/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety.
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (92.51 PLN). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- A fairly wide model range (44.04 PLN to 92.51 PLN) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
- For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 25.93 PLN – 106.70 PLN · fair‑value band 44.04 PLN – 92.51 PLN · the 106.50 PLN price screens above the 60.41 PLN fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
Analysis
Gielda Papierów Wartosciowych w Warszawie S.A (GPW) currently trades at 106.50 PLN, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 60.41 PLN, implying the stock looks roughly 43.3% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 80/100 (high quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Gielda Papierów Wartosciowych w Warszawie S.A generated revenue of 588M PLN at a net margin of 36.4%. Revenue grew 27.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 18.6%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of 200M PLN. Fundamentals as of Jul 16, 2026
Our scenario range runs from 44.04 PLN (bear case) to 92.51 PLN (bull case); at 106.50 PLN, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 129% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at -53% fair-value upside, at -43%, GPW screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 11 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (64.42 PLN) versus Asset-Based (18.06 PLN). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 16, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 76 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 93
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Gielda Papierów Wartosciowych w Warszawie S.A., together with its subsidiaries, operates a stock exchange in Poland. It operates through Financial, Commodity, and Other segments.
Full company description
Gielda Papierów Wartosciowych w Warszawie S.A., together with its subsidiaries, operates a stock exchange in Poland. It operates through Financial, Commodity, and Other segments. The company trades in equities; equity-related financial instruments; other cash markets instruments, such as structured products, investment certificates, and exchange traded fund units; derivatives; corporate, municipal, co-operative, treasury, and mortgage bonds; debt instruments; and agricultural commodities, as well as provides listing, trading, clearing services for shares and bonds, and information services. It offers market operator and balancing services to electricity traders, producers, and industrial customers; trade operator and balancing entity services; WIBID and WIBOR benchmark calculation and distribution services; capital market education, promotion, and information activities; and training services, as well as leases and maintains office space. In addition, the company trades in electricity, natural gas, property rights in certificates of origin of electricity, and CO2 emission allowances, as well as engages in the operation of the register of certificates of origin of electricity and the register of guarantees of origin. Further, it operates as an exchange settlement system for transactions in exchange-traded commodities. The company operates in various markets, such as GPW Main Market, NewConnect, Catalyst, and Treasury BondSpot Poland, as well as the markets operated by Towarowa Gielda Energii S.A. and InfoEngine S.A. Gielda Papierów Wartosciowych w Warszawie S.A. was incorporated in 1991 and is based in Warsaw, Poland.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Gielda Papierów Wartosciowych w Warszawie S.A reported revenue of 552M PLN in FY2025 versus 408M PLN in FY2021, a compound +7.9%/yr. Reported net income was 195M PLN in FY2025, compounding +4.9%/yr from FY2021.
GPW screens 43% overvalued. Compare with S&P Global Inc →
Peer Group
Financial Data & Stock Exchanges · 54 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Financial Data & Stock Exchanges median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Financial Data & Stock Exchanges stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 16, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P Global Inc SPGI | $450.84 | $196.36 | -56% |
| CME Group CME | $245.05 | $145.51 | -41% |
| Moody's Corporation MCO | $504.46 | $194.82 | -61% |
| Intercontinental Exchange, Inc ICE | $139.65 | $75.95 | -46% |
| Deutsche Börse AG DB1 | €260.90 | €142.42 | -45% |
| Nasdaq, Inc NDAQ | $88.08 | $41.12 | -53% |
| MSCI Inc MSCI | $604.71 | $214.91 | -64% |
| Coinbase Global, Inc COIN | $160.49 | $57.05 | -64% |
| Cboe Global Markets, Inc CBOE | $273.41 | $136.64 | -50% |
| Hithink RoyalFlush Information Network Co 300033 | ¥215.56 | ¥55.36 | -74% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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