Green Brick Partners, Inc (GRBK) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · US · Market cap $3.1B
Green Brick Partners, Inc
GRBK · US
Fair value as of: Jul 16, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 24 days ago
Share price +1.3% over the past month.
A solid business, screening 69% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- The model range is unusually wide ($62.84 to $175.28). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
- Solid quality (59/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $17.50 – $83.77 · fair‑value band $62.84 – $175.28 · the $72.90 price screens below the $122.84 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
Analysis
Green Brick Partners, Inc (GRBK) currently trades at $72.90, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $122.84, implying the stock looks roughly 68.5% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 59/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, Green Brick Partners, Inc generated revenue of $2.1B at a net margin of 14.4%. Revenue declined 4.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 17.4%. Net debt stands at $144M. Fundamentals as of Jul 16, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $62.84 (bear case) to $175.28 (bull case); at $72.90, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 10% below its 52-week high and 24% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 44% fair-value upside, at 69%, GRBK screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($181.32) versus Dividend Discount ($1.01). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 16, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 60 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 44
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Green Brick Partners, Inc., the third-largest homebuilder in Dallas-Fort Worth and one of Fortune Magazine's fastest-growing companies. It is a diversified homebuilding and land development company operating through its seven subsidiary homebuilders in Texas, Georgia, and Florida.
Full company description
Green Brick Partners, Inc., the third-largest homebuilder in Dallas-Fort Worth and one of Fortune Magazine's fastest-growing companies. It is a diversified homebuilding and land development company operating through its seven subsidiary homebuilders in Texas, Georgia, and Florida. Green Brick owns five subsidiary homebuilders in Texas (CB JENI Homes, Normandy Homes, Southgate Homes, Trophy Signature Homes, and a 90% interest in Centre Living Homes), as well as a controlling interest in a homebuilder in Atlanta, Georgia (The Providence Group) and an 80% interest in a homebuilder in Port St. Lucie, Florida (GHO Homes). Green Brick also holds interests in related financial services platforms, including Green Brick Title, Green Brick Mortgage, and Green Brick Insurance. The company and its affiliated builders are involved in all aspects of the homebuilding process, including land acquisition, development, entitlements, design, construction, marketing, and sales for its residential neighborhoods and master-planned communities. Green Brick Partners Inc. is incorporated in 2006 in Delaware and based in Plano, Texas.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Green Brick Partners, Inc reported revenue of $2.0B in FY2025 versus $1.4B in FY2021, a compound +9.8%/yr. Reported net income was $313M in FY2025, compounding +13.3%/yr from FY2021.
Watch GRBK: get an alert when its fair value changes →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Green Brick Partners Inc (GRBK) (Q2 2026) Earnings Call Highlights: Record Order Growth and ...
- Green Brick Partners Announces the Promotion of Jed Dolson to Co-CEO
- Green Brick Partners, Inc. Reports Second Quarter 2026 Results
- Green Brick Partners, Inc. Announces Dates For 8-K Filing and Earnings Call
Peer Group
Residential Construction · 65 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Residential Construction median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Residential Construction stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 16, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| D.R. Horton, Inc DHI | $149.39 | $214.93 | +44% |
| PulteGroup, Inc PHM | $124.75 | $193.56 | +55% |
| Lennar Corporation LEN | $83.89 | $146.58 | +75% |
| NVR, Inc NVR | $6,479 | $7,821 | +21% |
| Toll Brothers, Inc TOL | $150.76 | $225.76 | +50% |
| Taylor Morrison Home Corporation TMHC | $72.13 | $144.47 | +100% |
| Installed Building Products, Inc IBP | $228.65 | $209.51 | -8% |
| Meritage Homes Corporation MTH | $73.83 | $104.26 | +41% |
| Champion Homes, Inc SKY | $82.70 | $75.12 | -9% |
| Cavco Industries, Inc CVCO | $569.16 | $421.10 | -26% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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