GRAINTURK Holding A.S. (GRTHO) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 22, 2026: fair value of GRAINTURK Holding A.S. TRY 177, price TRY 130, upside +35.7%, quality 62 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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GRAINTURK Holding A.S. operates in the field of agricultural commodity trade on national and international platforms. It is involved in the trading of wheat, corn, cotton, barely, sunflower seeds, soybeans, wheat bran, sunflower meals, soybean meals, cotton meals, sunflower oils, and soybean oils.
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GRAINTURK Holding A.S. operates in the field of agricultural commodity trade on national and international platforms. It is involved in the trading of wheat, corn, cotton, barely, sunflower seeds, soybeans, wheat bran, sunflower meals, soybean meals, cotton meals, sunflower oils, and soybean oils. The company was founded in 2014 and is based in Besiktas, Turkey.
Stock analysis
GRAINTURK Holding A.S. (GRTHO) currently trades at 130.30 TRY, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 176.77 TRY, implying the stock looks roughly 26.3% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of 657.94 TRY per share, and 17 of the 26 models we run sit above the 130.30 TRY price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at 48.33 TRY, and 9 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: 106.50 TRY (bear) to 293.75 TRY (bull), the price of 130.30 TRY sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 62/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
GRAINTURK Holding A.S. reported revenue of 7.3B TRY in FY2025 versus 360M TRY in FY2021, a compound +112.0%/yr. Reported net income was 1.8B TRY in FY2025, compounding +69.1%/yr from FY2021. FY2021 was a trough year, so the rate overstates the trend.
Key figures
Market cap 30.1B TRY (≈ $618M) · P/E ratio 9.1 · P/S ratio 2.25 · EPS (TTM) 14.31 TRY · Dividend yield 0.7% · Net margin 24.7% · Return on equity 22.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 9.7%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 53 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at −24% fair-value upside, at 36%, GRTHO screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 106.50 TRYFair Value 176.77 TRYBull 293.75 TRY
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (9.77 TRY per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.100/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+59.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+79.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+78.3%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in TRY (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip. Measured in TRY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+71.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+70.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.7%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.0% → 9%
2025 sits 144% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+12.7%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Farm Products · 289 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score62 · Above median
Fair Value upside−51% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)23% · Top 25%
Return on assets4% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)26% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)11% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−21% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)0.7% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.01× · Lowest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Farm Products median · lower = cheaper
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Is GRAINTURK Holding A.S. (GRTHO) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 22, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 176.77 TRY versus a price of 130.30 TRY, about +36% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of GRTHO?
Our model-based fair value for GRAINTURK Holding A.S. is 176.77 TRY (as of Sep 22, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 130.30 TRY.
What is the quality score of GRTHO?
GRAINTURK Holding A.S. has a Quality Score of 62/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for GRAINTURK Holding A.S. (GRTHO)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 176.77 TRY (as of Sep 22, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario 106.50 TRY, optimistic scenario 293.75 TRY. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the GRAINTURK Holding A.S. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 176.77 TRY, about +36% upside versus a price of 130.30 TRY (undervalued). Cautious scenario 106.50 TRY, optimistic scenario 293.75 TRY. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of GRAINTURK Holding A.S. (GRTHO)?
GRAINTURK Holding A.S. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 6.8B TRY (latest available figure, as of Sep 22, 2026).
Does GRAINTURK Holding A.S. pay a dividend?
GRAINTURK Holding A.S. currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.69% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 22, 2026).
What growth is priced into GRAINTURK Holding A.S. (GRTHO)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, GRAINTURK Holding A.S. would have to grow free cash flow by +12.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 15.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +78.3 % per year. As of Sep 22, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of GRTHO use?
Our models discount GRAINTURK Holding A.S. at 15.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), country premium for Turkey. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For GRAINTURK Holding A.S. that is +12.7 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (15.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has GRAINTURK Holding A.S. (GRTHO) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at GRAINTURK Holding A.S. grew +78.3 % a year. The price currently implies +12.7 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of GRAINTURK Holding A.S. (GRTHO) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +0.5 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into GRAINTURK Holding A.S. (+12.7 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of GRAINTURK Holding A.S. (GRTHO)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 7.61 %: that much free cash flow GRAINTURK Holding A.S. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (15.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of GRAINTURK Holding A.S. (GRTHO)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For GRAINTURK Holding A.S. it is 176.77 TRY per share (as of Sep 22, 2026), against a price of 130.30 TRY. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is GRAINTURK Holding A.S. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 22, 2026, GRTHO trades below its calculated fair value: price 130.30 TRY, fair value 176.77 TRY, a gap of about +36% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of GRTHO?
No. The price is what the market pays today (130.30 TRY); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (176.77 TRY). For GRAINTURK Holding A.S. the two are 46.47 TRY per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is GRAINTURK Holding A.S. worth?
The market values GRAINTURK Holding A.S. at about 30.1B TRY (market capitalisation, as of Sep 22, 2026). Per share that is 130.30 TRY; our models calculate a fair value of 176.77 TRY per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about GRTHO?
Our models span a range for GRAINTURK Holding A.S.: cautious scenario 106.50 TRY, base 176.77 TRY, optimistic 293.75 TRY per share (as of Sep 22, 2026, price 130.30 TRY). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of GRTHO?
GRAINTURK Holding A.S. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 9.1 (as of Sep 22, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 176.77 TRY is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 3.3, P/S 4.4, EV/EBITDA 35.7.
How solid is the balance sheet of GRAINTURK Holding A.S. (GRTHO)?
Balance-sheet figures for GRAINTURK Holding A.S. (as of Sep 22, 2026): return on equity 22.6%, debt of 0.01 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 62/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
Which stocks are comparable to GRAINTURK Holding A.S.?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Archer-Daniels-Midland Company, Muyuan Foods Group, Bunge Global SA, Tyson Foods, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is GRAINTURK Holding A.S. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 22, 2026: price 130.30 TRY, calculated fair value 176.77 TRY (+36%), Quality Score 62/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of GRTHO calculated?
We run GRAINTURK Holding A.S. through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 176.77 TRY, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 16.0 % above its aggregate fair value. GRAINTURK Holding A.S. currently trades 36 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of GRAINTURK Holding A.S. (GRTHO)?
The closing price on Sep 22, 2026 was 130.30 TRY. Our model-based fair value is 176.77 TRY, about +36% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with GRAINTURK Holding A.S. right now?
The model range is unusually wide (106.50 TRY to 293.75 TRY). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid quality (62/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Key figures of GRAINTURK Holding A.S.
How large is the market capitalisation of GRAINTURK Holding A.S. (GRTHO)?
The market capitalisation of GRAINTURK Holding A.S. is 30.1B TRY (≈ $618M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of GRAINTURK Holding A.S. (GRTHO)?
The price-to-sales ratio of GRAINTURK Holding A.S. is 2.25 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of GRAINTURK Holding A.S. (GRTHO)?
Earnings per share at GRAINTURK Holding A.S. are 14.31 TRY (price ÷ EPS = P/E 9.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of GRAINTURK Holding A.S. (GRTHO)?
The dividend yield of GRAINTURK Holding A.S. is 0.7% (payout 6.3%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of GRAINTURK Holding A.S. (GRTHO)?
The net margin of GRAINTURK Holding A.S. is 24.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of GRAINTURK Holding A.S. (GRTHO)?
The return on equity (ROE) of GRAINTURK Holding A.S. is 22.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of GRAINTURK Holding A.S. (GRTHO)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of GRAINTURK Holding A.S. is 9.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of GRAINTURK Holding A.S. (GRTHO)?
The operating margin of GRAINTURK Holding A.S. is 11.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at GRAINTURK Holding A.S. (GRTHO)?
Revenue at GRAINTURK Holding A.S. is growing −21.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +79.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at GRAINTURK Holding A.S. (GRTHO)?
Earnings per share at GRAINTURK Holding A.S. are growing −3.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does GRAINTURK Holding A.S. (GRTHO) carry?
The net debt of GRAINTURK Holding A.S. is 490M TRY (fiscal year 2024, ≈ 0.4 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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