HOTEL GRAND CENTRAL LTD (H18) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · SG · Market cap 540M SGD
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 13 valuation models · updated 4 days ago
Share price +0.7% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 29% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (0.5400 SGD). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (56/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- The models converge in a tight band (0.5100 SGD to 0.5400 SGD), unusually little disagreement for a valuation.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 0.6479 SGD – 0.9871 SGD · fair‑value band 0.5100 SGD – 0.5400 SGD · the 0.7300 SGD price screens above the 0.5200 SGD fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
HOTEL GRAND CENTRAL LTD (H18) currently trades at 0.7300 SGD, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 0.5200 SGD, implying the stock looks roughly 28.8% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 56/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, HOTEL GRAND CENTRAL LTD generated revenue of 146M SGD at a net margin of -18.9%. Revenue grew 5.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -2.2%. Net debt stands at 7.9M SGD. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from 0.5100 SGD (bear case) to 0.5400 SGD (bull case); at 0.7300 SGD, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 6% below its 52-week high and 14% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at -56% fair-value upside, at -29%, H18 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 13 models by family
Widest divergence: Asset-Based (1.12 SGD) versus Earnings-Based (0.5100 SGD). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 57 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 59
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Hotel Grand Central Limited, together with its subsidiaries, owns, operates, and manages hotels in Singapore, Malaysia, Australia, New Zealand, and China. It offers marketing and support, as well as management services; and invests in commercial properties. The company was incorporated in 1968 and is based in Singapore.
Full company description
Hotel Grand Central Limited, together with its subsidiaries, owns, operates, and manages hotels in Singapore, Malaysia, Australia, New Zealand, and China. It offers marketing and support, as well as management services; and invests in commercial properties. The company was incorporated in 1968 and is based in Singapore. Hotel Grand Central Limited operates as a subsidiary of Tan Chee Hoe & Sons Holdings Pte. Ltd.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
HOTEL GRAND CENTRAL LTD reported revenue of 146M SGD in FY2025 versus 123M SGD in FY2021, a compound +4.3%/yr. Reported net income was −27.5M SGD in FY2025.
H18 screens 29% overvalued. Compare with Marriott International, Inc →
Peer Group
Lodging · 165 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Lodging median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Lodging stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Marriott International, Inc MAR | $354.58 | $132.35 | -63% |
| Hilton Worldwide Holdings HLT | $322.53 | $122.02 | -62% |
| InterContinental Hotels Group IHG | $161.82 | $85.18 | -47% |
| Hyatt Hotels Corporation H | $178.37 | $46.78 | -74% |
| H World Group HTHT | $41.25 | $47.78 | +16% |
| The Indian Hotels Company INDHOTEL | ₹724.00 | ₹253.67 | -65% |
| Hanjin Kal, 180640 | 118,200 KRW | 36,890 KRW | -69% |
| Jabal Omar Development Company 4250 | 16.00 SAR | 11.64 SAR | -27% |
| Makkah Construction and Development Company 4100 | 81.95 SAR | 36.25 SAR | -56% |
| Minor International Public Company MINT | 22.90 THB | 32.82 THB | +43% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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