HOTEL GRAND CENTRAL LTD (H18) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 1, 2026: fair value of HOTEL GRAND CENTRAL LTD S$0.52, price S$0.71, upside -26.8%, quality 56 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Hotel Grand Central Limited, together with its subsidiaries, owns, operates, and manages hotels in Singapore, Malaysia, Australia, New Zealand, and China. It offers marketing and support, as well as management services; and invests in commercial properties. The company was incorporated in 1968 and is based in Singapore.
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Hotel Grand Central Limited, together with its subsidiaries, owns, operates, and manages hotels in Singapore, Malaysia, Australia, New Zealand, and China. It offers marketing and support, as well as management services; and invests in commercial properties. The company was incorporated in 1968 and is based in Singapore. Hotel Grand Central Limited operates as a subsidiary of Tan Chee Hoe & Sons Holdings Pte. Ltd.
Stock analysis
HOTEL GRAND CENTRAL LTD (H18) currently trades at 0.7100 SGD, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 0.5200 SGD, 26.8% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of 1.12 SGD per share, and 10 of the 13 models we run sit above the 0.7100 SGD price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at 0.5100 SGD, and 3 of the 13 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: 0.5100 SGD (bear) to 0.5400 SGD (bull), the price of 0.7100 SGD sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 56/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
HOTEL GRAND CENTRAL LTD reported revenue of 146M SGD in FY2025 versus 123M SGD in FY2021, a compound +4.3%/yr. Reported net income was −27.5M SGD in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap 525M SGD (≈ $410M) · P/S ratio 3.71 · EPS (TTM) −0.0400 SGD · Dividend yield 2.1% · Net margin −18.9% · Return on equity −2.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.3% · Operating margin 10.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 9% below its 52-week high and 9% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −28% fair-value upside, at −27%, H18 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 0.5100 SGDFair Value 0.5200 SGDBull 0.5400 SGD
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.55/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+3.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +0.7% a year
Revenue growth 12 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−0.1%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
33.7% (2020) → 9.2% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+2.0%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Singapore: IMF forecast 2.0% a year to 2030, 1.7% from 2016 to 2025) that is about 0.0% a year for the price.
Compare HOTEL GRAND CENTRAL LTD with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Lodging · 158 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/11 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score56 · Above median
Fair Value upside−26.8% · Below median
Profitability
Return on assets0.6% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)−18.9% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)10.8% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth5.8% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)2.1% · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Lodging median · lower = cheaper
P/B0.33× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (TTM)2.82× · Pricier than median
P/FCF15.3× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA2.5× · Cheapest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 21
FUTURE (revenue growth)29· sector 29
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 13
HEALTH (low debt)100· sector 89
DIVIDEND (yield)42· sector 30
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "HOTEL GRAND CENTRAL LTD Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/H18
Frequently asked questions
Is HOTEL GRAND CENTRAL LTD (H18) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 0.5200 SGD versus a price of 0.7100 SGD, about −27% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of H18?
Our model-based fair value for HOTEL GRAND CENTRAL LTD is 0.5200 SGD (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 0.7100 SGD.
What is the quality score of H18?
HOTEL GRAND CENTRAL LTD has a Quality Score of 56/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for HOTEL GRAND CENTRAL LTD (H18)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 0.5200 SGD (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 13 valuation models. Cautious scenario 0.5100 SGD, optimistic scenario 0.5400 SGD. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the HOTEL GRAND CENTRAL LTD stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 0.5200 SGD, about −27% upside versus a price of 0.7100 SGD (overvalued). Cautious scenario 0.5100 SGD, optimistic scenario 0.5400 SGD. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of HOTEL GRAND CENTRAL LTD (H18)?
HOTEL GRAND CENTRAL LTD reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 146M SGD (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
Does HOTEL GRAND CENTRAL LTD pay a dividend?
HOTEL GRAND CENTRAL LTD currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.11% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 27, 2026).
What growth is priced into HOTEL GRAND CENTRAL LTD (H18)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, HOTEL GRAND CENTRAL LTD would have to grow free cash flow by +2.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +9.0 % per year. As of Sep 27, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of H18 use?
Our models discount HOTEL GRAND CENTRAL LTD at 9.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.06, country premium for Singapore. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For HOTEL GRAND CENTRAL LTD that is +2.0 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has HOTEL GRAND CENTRAL LTD (H18) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at HOTEL GRAND CENTRAL LTD grew +9.0 % a year. The price currently implies +2.0 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of HOTEL GRAND CENTRAL LTD (H18) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into HOTEL GRAND CENTRAL LTD (+2.0 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of HOTEL GRAND CENTRAL LTD (H18)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 5.11 %: that much free cash flow HOTEL GRAND CENTRAL LTD produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of HOTEL GRAND CENTRAL LTD (H18)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For HOTEL GRAND CENTRAL LTD it is 0.5200 SGD per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of 0.7100 SGD. It is the blended result of 13 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is HOTEL GRAND CENTRAL LTD stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, H18 trades above its calculated fair value: price 0.7100 SGD, fair value 0.5200 SGD, a gap of about −27% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of H18?
No. The price is what the market pays today (0.7100 SGD); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (0.5200 SGD). For HOTEL GRAND CENTRAL LTD the two are 0.1900 SGD per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is HOTEL GRAND CENTRAL LTD worth?
The market values HOTEL GRAND CENTRAL LTD at about 525M SGD (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is 0.7100 SGD; our models calculate a fair value of 0.5200 SGD per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about H18?
Our models span a range for HOTEL GRAND CENTRAL LTD: cautious scenario 0.5100 SGD, base 0.5200 SGD, optimistic 0.5400 SGD per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price 0.7100 SGD). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of HOTEL GRAND CENTRAL LTD (H18)?
Balance-sheet figures for HOTEL GRAND CENTRAL LTD (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity −2.2%. They feed the Quality Score of 56/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is H18 from its 52-week high?
HOTEL GRAND CENTRAL LTD trades at 0.7100 SGD, about 9% below its 52-week high of 0.7797 SGD and 9% above the low of 0.6522 SGD (as of Oct 1, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 0.5200 SGD is for.
Which stocks are comparable to HOTEL GRAND CENTRAL LTD?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Marriott International, Inc, Hilton Worldwide Holdings, InterContinental Hotels Group, Hyatt Hotels Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is HOTEL GRAND CENTRAL LTD stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price 0.7100 SGD, calculated fair value 0.5200 SGD (−27%), Quality Score 56/100, from 13 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of H18 calculated?
We run HOTEL GRAND CENTRAL LTD through 13 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 0.5200 SGD, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. HOTEL GRAND CENTRAL LTD itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of HOTEL GRAND CENTRAL LTD (H18)?
The closing price on Oct 1, 2026 was 0.7100 SGD. Our model-based fair value is 0.5200 SGD, about −27% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with HOTEL GRAND CENTRAL LTD right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (0.5400 SGD). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (56/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. The models converge in a tight band (0.5100 SGD to 0.5400 SGD), unusually little disagreement for a valuation. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
Key figures of HOTEL GRAND CENTRAL LTD
How large is the market capitalisation of HOTEL GRAND CENTRAL LTD (H18)?
The market capitalisation of HOTEL GRAND CENTRAL LTD is 525M SGD (≈ $410M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of HOTEL GRAND CENTRAL LTD (H18)?
The price-to-sales ratio of HOTEL GRAND CENTRAL LTD is 3.71 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of HOTEL GRAND CENTRAL LTD (H18)?
Earnings per share at HOTEL GRAND CENTRAL LTD are −0.0400 SGD. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of HOTEL GRAND CENTRAL LTD (H18)?
The dividend yield of HOTEL GRAND CENTRAL LTD is 2.1%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of HOTEL GRAND CENTRAL LTD (H18)?
The net margin of HOTEL GRAND CENTRAL LTD is −18.9% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of HOTEL GRAND CENTRAL LTD (H18)?
The return on equity (ROE) of HOTEL GRAND CENTRAL LTD is −2.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of HOTEL GRAND CENTRAL LTD (H18)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of HOTEL GRAND CENTRAL LTD is 1.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of HOTEL GRAND CENTRAL LTD (H18)?
The operating margin of HOTEL GRAND CENTRAL LTD is 10.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at HOTEL GRAND CENTRAL LTD (H18)?
Revenue at HOTEL GRAND CENTRAL LTD is growing +5.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +0.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at HOTEL GRAND CENTRAL LTD (H18)?
Earnings per share at HOTEL GRAND CENTRAL LTD are growing −54.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does HOTEL GRAND CENTRAL LTD (H18) carry?
The net debt of HOTEL GRAND CENTRAL LTD is 7.9M SGD (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 0.3 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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