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HOTEL GRAND CENTRAL LTD (H18) Fair Value & Analysis

Consumer Cyclical · SG · Market cap 540M SGD

HG HOTEL GRAND CENTRAL LTD H18 · SG
Price0.7300 SGD
Fair Value0.5200 SGD
Upside-28.8%
Quality56/100
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Mixed Growth
Loss-making · -18.9% net margin
Low debt · generates free cash flow
2.05% dividend yield
Mixed vs. peers (7/13)
Narrow moat 18/100
Evidence: Medium Range 0.5100 SGD – 0.5400 SGD Share as image

Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026

From 13 valuation models · updated 4 days ago

Share price +0.7% over the past month.

A solid business, but screening 29% overvalued on our models.

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What matters now

  • The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (0.5400 SGD). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
  • Solid but not exceptional quality (56/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
  • The models converge in a tight band (0.5100 SGD to 0.5400 SGD), unusually little disagreement for a valuation.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

0.9871 SGD 0.6479 SGD Fair Value 0.5200 SGD May 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range 0.6479 SGD – 0.9871 SGD · fair‑value band 0.5100 SGD – 0.5400 SGD · the 0.7300 SGD price screens above the 0.5200 SGD fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

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Analysis

HOTEL GRAND CENTRAL LTD (H18) currently trades at 0.7300 SGD, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 0.5200 SGD, implying the stock looks roughly 28.8% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 56/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).

Over the trailing twelve months, HOTEL GRAND CENTRAL LTD generated revenue of 146M SGD at a net margin of -18.9%. Revenue grew 5.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -2.2%. Net debt stands at 7.9M SGD. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026

Our scenario range runs from 0.5100 SGD (bear case) to 0.5400 SGD (bull case); at 0.7300 SGD, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 6% below its 52-week high and 14% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at -56% fair-value upside, at -29%, H18 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model Bear Bear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull Bull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF 0.7500 SGD 0.8300 SGD 0.9500 SGD 80
Rev-Margin DCF 0.6500 SGD 0.7300 SGD 0.8200 SGD 74
ROIC Compounder 0.5000 SGD 0.5100 SGD 0.5200 SGD 72
All 13 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF 0.7400 SGD 0.8200 SGD 0.9600 SGD 38
5Y Revenue Exit 0.6500 SGD 0.7200 SGD 0.8200 SGD 39
5Y EBITDA Exit 0.7800 SGD 0.9500 SGD 1.16 SGD 41
10Y Revenue Exit 0.6800 SGD 0.7500 SGD 0.8200 SGD 36
10Y EBITDA Exit 0.7600 SGD 0.8800 SGD 1.02 SGD 37
Earnings-Based
EPV 0.5000 SGD 0.5100 SGD 0.5200 SGD 59
Multiples
EV/EBIT 0.6700 SGD 0.7600 SGD 0.8400 SGD 53
EV/EBITDA 0.8800 SGD 1.02 SGD 1.17 SGD 54
EV/Revenue 0.5900 SGD 0.6700 SGD 0.7400 SGD 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) 0.8400 SGD 1.12 SGD 1.67 SGD 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF 0.7500 SGD 0.8300 SGD 0.9500 SGD 80
Rev-Margin DCF 0.6500 SGD 0.7300 SGD 0.8200 SGD 74
Economic Profit
ROIC Compounder 0.5000 SGD 0.5100 SGD 0.5200 SGD 72

Widest divergence: Asset-Based (1.12 SGD) versus Earnings-Based (0.5100 SGD). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

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Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) 146M SGD
Revenue growth (YoY) +5.8%
Net margin -18.9%
Return on equity -2.2%
Free cash flow 26.8M SGD FY2025
Operating margin 10.8%
More key figures
EPS (TTM) -0.0400 SGD
Dividend yield 2.1%
EPS growth (YoY) -54.9%
Net debt 7.9M SGD FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 56/100

Of which business quality 57 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 59

Profitability 6
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 35
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 77
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 70
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 93
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 94
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 41
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 51
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 82
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Hotel Grand Central Limited, together with its subsidiaries, owns, operates, and manages hotels in Singapore, Malaysia, Australia, New Zealand, and China. It offers marketing and support, as well as management services; and invests in commercial properties. The company was incorporated in 1968 and is based in Singapore.

Full company description

Hotel Grand Central Limited, together with its subsidiaries, owns, operates, and manages hotels in Singapore, Malaysia, Australia, New Zealand, and China. It offers marketing and support, as well as management services; and invests in commercial properties. The company was incorporated in 1968 and is based in Singapore. Hotel Grand Central Limited operates as a subsidiary of Tan Chee Hoe & Sons Holdings Pte. Ltd.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

HOTEL GRAND CENTRAL LTD reported revenue of 146M SGD in FY2025 versus 123M SGD in FY2021, a compound +4.3%/yr. Reported net income was −27.5M SGD in FY2025.

Growth Quality 55/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
146M SGD
Latest YoY
+3.6%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+0.5%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+9.0%
Avg. growth/yr (12Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−0.1%
Revenue +4.3%/yr
FY21 123M SGD
FY22 144M SGD
FY23 149M SGD
FY24 140M SGD
FY25 146M SGD
Net income
FY21 14.0M SGD
FY22 845K SGD
FY23 11.9M SGD
FY24 −14.0M SGD
FY25 −27.5M SGD

H18 screens 29% overvalued. Compare with Marriott International, Inc →

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "HOTEL GRAND CENTRAL LTD Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/H18

Peer Group

Lodging · 165 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 56 · Above median
Fair Value upside −29% · Above median
Return on assets 1% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) -19% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 11% · Below median
Revenue growth 6% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM) 2.1% · Above median

Valuation Multiples vs Lodging median · lower = cheaper

P/B 0.34× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 2.90× · Pricier than median
P/FCF 15.8× · Pricier than 75% of peers
EV/EBITDA 2.9× · Cheaper than 75% of peers

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0 · sector 0
FUTURE 29 · sector 19
PAST 0 · sector 11
HEALTH 100 · sector 91
DIVIDEND 41 · sector 28

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Lodging stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Marriott International, Inc MAR $354.58 $132.35 -63%
Hilton Worldwide Holdings HLT $322.53 $122.02 -62%
InterContinental Hotels Group IHG $161.82 $85.18 -47%
Hyatt Hotels Corporation H $178.37 $46.78 -74%
H World Group HTHT $41.25 $47.78 +16%
The Indian Hotels Company INDHOTEL ₹724.00 ₹253.67 -65%
Hanjin Kal, 180640 118,200 KRW 36,890 KRW -69%
Jabal Omar Development Company 4250 16.00 SAR 11.64 SAR -27%
Makkah Construction and Development Company 4100 81.95 SAR 36.25 SAR -56%
Minor International Public Company MINT 22.90 THB 32.82 THB +43%

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Frequently asked questions

Is HOTEL GRAND CENTRAL LTD (H18) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 0.5200 SGD versus a price of 0.7300 SGD, about −29% (overvalued).
What is the fair value of H18?
Our model-based fair value for HOTEL GRAND CENTRAL LTD is 0.5200 SGD (as of Aug 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is 0.7300 SGD.
What is the quality score of H18?
HOTEL GRAND CENTRAL LTD has a Quality Score of 56/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of HOTEL GRAND CENTRAL LTD (H18)?
HOTEL GRAND CENTRAL LTD reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 146M SGD (latest available figure, as of Aug 13, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of H18?
The net profit margin of HOTEL GRAND CENTRAL LTD is about -18.9%, meaning it is currently running at a net loss. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does HOTEL GRAND CENTRAL LTD pay a dividend?
HOTEL GRAND CENTRAL LTD currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.05% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 13, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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