Haypp Grp Ab (HAYPP) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Haypp Grp Ab SEK 42.33, price SEK 143, upside -70.3%, quality 55 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Haypp Group AB (publ), an e-commerce company, engages in the sale of nicotine pouches and snus products in Sweden, Norway, Europe, and the United States. The company operates through three segments: Core, Growth, and Emerging. It engages in the sale of oral nicotine products; and marketing space and research services for its products.
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Haypp Group AB (publ), an e-commerce company, engages in the sale of nicotine pouches and snus products in Sweden, Norway, Europe, and the United States. The company operates through three segments: Core, Growth, and Emerging. It engages in the sale of oral nicotine products; and marketing space and research services for its products. The company also offers products through various e-commerce platforms, including haypp.com, nicokick.com, snushjem.no, snusbolaget.se, snus.com, snusmarkt.ch, northerner.com, snuslageret.no, snusnetto.se, vapeglobe.de, and nettotobak.com. The company was formerly known as Snusbolaget Norden Holding AB and changed its name to Haypp Group AB (publ) in September 2019. Haypp Group AB (publ) was founded in 2009 and is headquartered in Stockholm, Sweden.
Stock analysis
Haypp Grp Ab (HAYPP) currently trades at kr 142.60, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is kr 42.33, implying the stock looks roughly 236.9% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of kr 88.55 per share, and 1 of the 24 models we run sit above the kr 142.60 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at kr 14.42, and 23 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: kr 30.93 (bear) to kr 50.50 (bull), the price of kr 142.60 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 55/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Haypp Grp Ab reported revenue of 3.8B SEK in FY2025 versus 2.3B SEK in FY2021, a compound +14.2%/yr. Reported net income was 42.5M SEK in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap 4.5B SEK (≈ $450M) · P/E ratio 269.1 · P/S ratio 2.97 · EPS (TTM) kr 0.5300 · Net margin 1.1% · Return on equity 2.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.0% · Operating margin 1.2%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 47 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 16% below its 52-week high and 28% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 19% fair-value upside, at −70%, HAYPP screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear kr 30.93Fair Value kr 42.33Bull kr 50.50
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (kr 0.3892 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.85/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+4.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+14.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+17.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 7 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+35.4%
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 3 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 3 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+35.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+35.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−1% → 3%
2025 sits 99% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 3 years, not that single year.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+23.4%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Sweden: IMF forecast 2.0% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +21.0% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Tobacco · 38 stocks
Beats the industry median on 2/12 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score55 · Below median
Fair Value upside−71% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)2% · Bottom 25%
Return on assets2% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)0% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)1% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth19% · Top 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Tobacco median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)269.1× · Priciest 25%
P/B6.71× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM)1.11× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF3.5× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA54.5× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 51
FUTURE (revenue growth)96· sector 25
PAST (return on equity)10· sector 54
HEALTH (low debt)100· sector 96
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 79
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Haypp Grp Ab Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/HAYPP
Frequently asked questions
Is Haypp Grp Ab (HAYPP) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of kr 42.33 versus a price of kr 142.60, about −70% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of HAYPP?
Our model-based fair value for Haypp Grp Ab is kr 42.33 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: kr 142.60.
What is the quality score of HAYPP?
Haypp Grp Ab has a Quality Score of 55/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Haypp Grp Ab (HAYPP)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of kr 42.33 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario kr 30.93, optimistic scenario kr 50.50. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Haypp Grp Ab stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at kr 42.33, about −70% upside versus a price of kr 142.60 (overvalued). Cautious scenario kr 30.93, optimistic scenario kr 50.50. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Haypp Grp Ab (HAYPP)?
Haypp Grp Ab reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 4.1B SEK (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Haypp Grp Ab (HAYPP)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Haypp Grp Ab would have to grow free cash flow by +23.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +17.4 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of HAYPP use?
Our models discount Haypp Grp Ab at 11.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.98, country premium for Sweden. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Haypp Grp Ab that is +23.4 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Haypp Grp Ab (HAYPP) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Haypp Grp Ab grew +17.4 % a year. The price currently implies +23.4 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Haypp Grp Ab (HAYPP) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.9 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Haypp Grp Ab (+23.4 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Haypp Grp Ab (HAYPP)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 2.90 %: that much free cash flow Haypp Grp Ab produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Haypp Grp Ab (HAYPP)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Haypp Grp Ab it is kr 42.33 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of kr 142.60. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Haypp Grp Ab stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, HAYPP trades above its calculated fair value: price kr 142.60, fair value kr 42.33, a gap of about −70% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of HAYPP?
No. The price is what the market pays today (kr 142.60); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (kr 42.33). For Haypp Grp Ab the two are kr 100.27 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Haypp Grp Ab worth?
The market values Haypp Grp Ab at about 4.5B SEK (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is kr 142.60; our models calculate a fair value of kr 42.33 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about HAYPP?
Our models span a range for Haypp Grp Ab: cautious scenario kr 30.93, base kr 42.33, optimistic kr 50.50 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price kr 142.60). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of HAYPP?
Haypp Grp Ab trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 269.1 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of kr 42.33 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 6.7, P/S 1.1, EV/EBITDA 54.5.
How solid is the balance sheet of Haypp Grp Ab (HAYPP)?
Balance-sheet figures for Haypp Grp Ab (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 2.4%. They feed the Quality Score of 55/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is HAYPP from its 52-week high?
Haypp Grp Ab trades at kr 142.60, about 16% below its 52-week high of kr 170.00 and 28% above the low of kr 111.20 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of kr 42.33 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Haypp Grp Ab?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Philip Morris International Inc, British American Tobacco p.l.c., Altria Group, ITC Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Haypp Grp Ab stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price kr 142.60, calculated fair value kr 42.33 (−70%), Quality Score 55/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of HAYPP calculated?
We run Haypp Grp Ab through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of kr 42.33, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.2 % above its aggregate fair value. Haypp Grp Ab itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Haypp Grp Ab (HAYPP)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was kr 142.60. Our model-based fair value is kr 42.33, about −70% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Haypp Grp Ab right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (kr 50.50). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (55/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of Haypp Grp Ab
How large is the market capitalisation of Haypp Grp Ab (HAYPP)?
The market capitalisation of Haypp Grp Ab is 4.5B SEK (≈ $450M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Haypp Grp Ab (HAYPP)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Haypp Grp Ab is 2.97 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Haypp Grp Ab (HAYPP)?
Earnings per share at Haypp Grp Ab are kr 0.5300 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 269.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Haypp Grp Ab (HAYPP)?
The net margin of Haypp Grp Ab is 1.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Haypp Grp Ab (HAYPP)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Haypp Grp Ab is 2.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Haypp Grp Ab (HAYPP)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Haypp Grp Ab is 3.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Haypp Grp Ab (HAYPP)?
The operating margin of Haypp Grp Ab is 1.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Haypp Grp Ab (HAYPP)?
Revenue at Haypp Grp Ab is growing +19.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +14.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Haypp Grp Ab (HAYPP)?
Earnings per share at Haypp Grp Ab are growing −85.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Haypp Grp Ab (HAYPP) carry?
The net debt of Haypp Grp Ab is 179M SEK (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 1.4 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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