HBX Group (HBX) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · ES · Market cap €1.6B
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 14 valuation models · updated yesterday
Share price +6.7% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 84% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (€2.58). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- The model range is unusually wide (€0.9400 to €2.58). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (50/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (18 months)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
18‑month range €5.79 – €11.44 · fair‑value band €0.9400 – €2.58 · the €7.88 price screens above the €1.25 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
HBX Group (HBX) currently trades at €7.88, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €1.25, implying the stock looks roughly 84.1% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 50/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Net debt stands at €404M. The stock trades on a trailing P/E of 8.3. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from €0.9400 (bear case) to €2.58 (bull case); at €7.88, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 33% below its 52-week high and 40% above its 52-week low. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at -28% fair-value upside, at -84%, HBX screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 14 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples (€5.25) versus Earnings-Based (€1.27). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 42 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 47
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
HBX Group International plc provides network of interconnected B2B products and services for accommodation, mobility, experiences, hoteltech, fintech, and insurance sectors. The company was incorporated in 2023 and is based in London, the United Kingdom.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2022 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
HBX Group reported revenue of €720M in FY2025 versus €461M in FY2022, a compound +16.0%/yr. Reported net income was −€69.0M in FY2025.
HBX screens 84% overvalued. Compare with Booking Holdings →
Peer Group
Travel Services · 92 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Travel Services median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Travel Services stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Booking Holdings BKNG | $212.26 | $152.94 | -28% |
| Airbnb, Inc ABNB | $180.10 | $85.66 | -52% |
| Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd RCL | $307.15 | $215.19 | -30% |
| Viking Holdings VIK | $104.19 | $43.68 | -58% |
| Carnival Corporation CCL | $27.67 | $31.36 | +13% |
| Expedia Group EXPE | $325.57 | $248.63 | -24% |
| Trip.com Group TCOM | $45.58 | $89.04 | +95% |
| Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings NCLH | $18.92 | $20.28 | +7% |
| Global Business Travel Group GBTG | $9.44 | $5.04 | -47% |
| Travel + Leisure Co TNL | $74.68 | $26.57 | -64% |
Compare HBX Group with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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