Hongchang International Co. Ltd. (HCIL) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 18, 2026: fair value of Hongchang International Co. Ltd. $0.05, price $0.11, upside -53.1%, quality 32 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $0.0002 – $2.90 · fair‑value band $0.0300 – $0.0700 · the $0.1067 price screens above the $0.0500 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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Hongchang International Co., Ltd engages in the food trading and biotechnology businesses in China, the United States, and internationally. It offers technical and consultation services. The company is based in Fuzhou, China.
Stock analysis
Hongchang International Co. Ltd. (HCIL) currently trades at $0.1067, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $0.0500, implying the stock looks roughly 113.4% overvalued today.
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Valuation
How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 91/100, which puts the evidence level at low.
Scenario range: $0.0300 (bear) to $0.0700 (bull), the price of $0.1067 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 32/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Hongchang International Co. Ltd. reported revenue of $2.9M in FY2024 versus $223K in FY2020, a compound +89.4%/yr. Reported net income was −$472K in FY2024.
Key figures
Market cap $80.9M · P/S ratio 2.24 · Net margin −16.5% · Return on equity 0.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) −64.0% · Operating margin 8.5% · Revenue growth (YoY) +85.6% · Free cash flow −$11.4M.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 22 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 56% below its 52-week high and 29% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at −10% fair-value upside, at −53%, HCIL screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $0.0300Fair Value $0.0500Bull $0.0700
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.47/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+7.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+209.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+77.3%
’19
’20
’21
’23
’24
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−328.8% (2019) → −13.3% (2024)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2024 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
Compare Hongchang International Co. Ltd. with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Food Distribution · 83 stocks
Beats the industry median on 3/11 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score36 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−53% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)1% · Bottom 25%
Return on assets0% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)20% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)8% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth86% · Top 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Food Distribution median · lower = cheaper
P/B2.09× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM)2.24× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA9.0× · Pricier than median
PEG3.34× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 29
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 13
PAST (return on equity)3· sector 32
HEALTH (low debt)0· sector 95
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 67
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Hongchang International Co. Ltd. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/HCIL
Frequently asked questions
Is Hongchang International Co. Ltd. (HCIL) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $0.0500 versus the last price from Sep 18, 2026 of $0.1067, about −53% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of HCIL?
Our model-based fair value for Hongchang International Co. Ltd. is $0.0500 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. Last price (from Sep 18, 2026): $0.1067.
What is the quality score of HCIL?
Hongchang International Co. Ltd. has a Quality Score of 32/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Hongchang International Co. Ltd. (HCIL)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $0.0500 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario $0.0300, optimistic scenario $0.0700. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Hongchang International Co. Ltd. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $0.0500, about −53% upside versus the last price from Sep 18, 2026 of $0.1067 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $0.0300, optimistic scenario $0.0700. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the intrinsic value of Hongchang International Co. Ltd. (HCIL)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Hongchang International Co. Ltd. it is $0.0500 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $0.1067. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Hongchang International Co. Ltd. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, HCIL trades above its calculated fair value: price $0.1067, fair value $0.0500, a gap of about −53% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of HCIL?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($0.1067); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($0.0500). For Hongchang International Co. Ltd. the two are $0.0567 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Hongchang International Co. Ltd. worth?
The market values Hongchang International Co. Ltd. at about $80.9M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $0.1067; our models calculate a fair value of $0.0500 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about HCIL?
Our models span a range for Hongchang International Co. Ltd.: cautious scenario $0.0300, base $0.0500, optimistic $0.0700 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $0.1067). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of HCIL?
The PEG ratio of Hongchang International Co. Ltd. is 3.34 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 23, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Hongchang International Co. Ltd. (HCIL)?
Balance-sheet figures for Hongchang International Co. Ltd. (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 0.7%. They feed the Quality Score of 32/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is HCIL from its 52-week high?
Hongchang International Co. Ltd. trades at $0.1067, about 56% below its 52-week high of $0.2400 and 29% above the low of $0.0825 (as of Sep 18, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $0.0500 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Hongchang International Co. Ltd.?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Sysco Corporation, US Foods Holding, Performance Food Group, Jerónimo Martins, SGPS, S.A, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Hongchang International Co. Ltd. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $0.1067, calculated fair value $0.0500 (−53%), Quality Score 32/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of HCIL calculated?
We run Hongchang International Co. Ltd. through 1 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $0.0500, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Hongchang International Co. Ltd. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Hongchang International Co. Ltd. (HCIL)?
The latest price we hold is from Sep 18, 2026 and stands at $0.1067. Our model-based fair value is $0.0500, about −53% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Hongchang International Co. Ltd. right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($0.0700). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (32/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range ($0.0300 to $0.0700) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Hongchang International Co. Ltd.
How large is the market capitalisation of Hongchang International Co. Ltd. (HCIL)?
The market capitalisation of Hongchang International Co. Ltd. is $80.9M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Hongchang International Co. Ltd. (HCIL)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Hongchang International Co. Ltd. is 2.24 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What is the net margin of Hongchang International Co. Ltd. (HCIL)?
The net margin of Hongchang International Co. Ltd. is −16.5% (fiscal year 2024). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Hongchang International Co. Ltd. (HCIL)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Hongchang International Co. Ltd. is 0.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Hongchang International Co. Ltd. (HCIL)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Hongchang International Co. Ltd. is −64.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Hongchang International Co. Ltd. (HCIL)?
The operating margin of Hongchang International Co. Ltd. is 8.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Hongchang International Co. Ltd. (HCIL)?
Revenue at Hongchang International Co. Ltd. is growing +85.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +210%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does Hongchang International Co. Ltd. (HCIL) generate?
The free cash flow of Hongchang International Co. Ltd. is −$11.4M (fiscal year 2024). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
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Thin data
Sep 23, 2026