Hongchang International Co (HCIL) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Defensive · US · Market cap $80.9M
Hongchang International Co
HCIL · US
Fair value as of: Jul 29, 2026
From 1 valuation models · updated 13 days ago
Below-average quality, and screening another 58% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($0.0700). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (32/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 29, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $0.0002 – $2.90 · fair‑value band $0.0400 – $0.0700 · the $0.1200 price screens above the $0.0500 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 29, 2026.
Analysis
Hongchang International Co (HCIL) currently trades at $0.1200, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $0.0500, implying the stock looks roughly 58.3% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 32/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: low).
Over the trailing twelve months, Hongchang International Co generated revenue of $36.1M at a net margin of 20.5%. It earns a return on equity of 0.7%. Fundamentals as of Jul 29, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $0.0400 (bear case) to $0.0700 (bull case); at $0.1200, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 52% below its 52-week high, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at -26% fair-value upside, at -58%, HCIL screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 1 models by family
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Key figures & financial health
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 29, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 36 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 63
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Hongchang International Co., Ltd engages in the food trading and biotechnology businesses in China, the United States, and internationally. It offers technical and consultation services. The company is based in Fuzhou, China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2020 – FY2024 · reported fiscal years
Hongchang International Co reported revenue of $2.9M in FY2024 versus $223K in FY2020, a compound +89.4%/yr. Reported net income was −$472K in FY2024.
HCIL screens 58% overvalued. Compare with Sysco Corporation →
Peer Group
Food Distribution · 77 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Food Distribution median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Food Distribution stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 29, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sysco Corporation SYY | $81.69 | $60.58 | -26% |
| US Foods Holding USFD | $99.13 | $55.10 | -44% |
| Performance Food Group PFGC | $113.17 | $37.94 | -66% |
| Jerónimo Martins, SGPS, S.A JMT | €17.68 | €21.59 | +22% |
| CP Axtra Public Company CPAXT | 14.90 THB | 17.04 THB | +14% |
| The Chefs' Warehouse, Inc CHEF | $95.79 | $37.27 | -61% |
| Olam Group VC2 | 1.33 SGD | 2.12 SGD | +59% |
| United Natural Foods, Inc UNFI | $50.19 | $6.00 | -88% |
| The Andersons, Inc ANDE | $79.24 | $47.78 | -40% |
| Metcash Limited MTS | A$2.92 | A$5.33 | +83% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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