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Hong Yuan Holding Group (HGYN) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Hong Yuan Holding Group $0.03, price $0.04, upside -7.0%, quality 75 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? Yes
  3. Add to watchlist

Industrials · US · ISIN US43859A1097

HY Hong Yuan Holding Group logo Thin data Sep 23, 2026

Hong Yuan Holding Group

HGYN · US

Quality WatchlistA strong company, but the current price is close to Fair Value.

·Fair value $0.0344 · Fairly valued (−7%)
✓Quality 75/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue YoY +241.1 %/yr)
✓Solidly profitable · 18.5% net margin (TTM)
!Negative equity (buybacks among others) · negative free cash flow
!Mixed vs. peers (4/8)
!Moderate moat 52/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
!Weak on valuation: 24 out of 100
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$0.4500 $0.0001 Fair Value $0.0344 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $0.0001 – $0.4500 · fair‑value band $0.0307 – $0.0344 · the $0.0370 price screens above the $0.0344 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

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Company profile

Hong Yuan Holding Group does not have significant operations. previously, the company was engaged in the development and commercialization of bio-based resins. The company was formerly known as Cereplast, Inc. and changed its name to Hong Yuan Holding Group in June 2021. Hong Yuan Holding Group was incorporated in 2001 and is based in Zhengzhou, China.

Stock analysis

Hong Yuan Holding Group (HGYN) currently trades at $0.0370, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $0.0344, implying the stock looks roughly 7.6% fairly valued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Earnings-Based group reads highest at a median of $0.0700 per share, and 2 of the 3 models we run sit above the $0.0370 price.

Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at $0.0300, and 1 of the 3 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Scenario range: $0.0307 (bear) to $0.0344 (bull), the price of $0.0370 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 75/100 (high quality), in the Industrials sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

Hong Yuan Holding Group reported revenue of $838K in FY2025 versus $0 in FY2021. Reported net income was $158K in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $2.8M · P/S ratio 3.12 · Net margin 18.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) −73.8% · Operating margin 18.9% · Revenue (TTM) $838K · Revenue growth (YoY) −2.1% · EPS growth (YoY) +95.5%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 22 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 75% below its 52-week high and 85% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 13% fair-value upside, at −7%, HGYN screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $0.0307 Fair Value $0.0344 Bull $0.0344
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
P/E Multiple $0.0200 $0.0300 $0.0300 63
Graham-Dodd $0.0100 $0.1000 $0.1400 61
Lynch FV $0.0500 $0.0700 $0.1000 58
All 3 models by family
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd $0.0100 $0.1000 $0.1400 61
Lynch FV $0.0500 $0.0700 $0.1000 58
Multiples
P/E Multiple $0.0200 $0.0300 $0.0300 63

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 75/100

Of which business quality 65 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 19

Profitability 95
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 100
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 37
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 9
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 100
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 0
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 32
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 19
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 82
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 52/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+241.1%
Revenue growth 21 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.5%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−43.1% (2004) → 21.1% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: no profitable base year
not computed

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Integrated Freight & Logistics · 217 stocks

Beats the industry median on 4/8 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 71 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside −7% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) Negative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
Return on assets 26% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) 19% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 19% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth −2% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity Negative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.

Valuation Multiplesvs Integrated Freight & Logistics median · lower = cheaper

P/B Negative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
P/S (TTM) 3.30× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA 15.4× · Priciest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)24 · sector 48
FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 8
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 26
HEALTH (low debt)0 · sector 92
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 62

PAST 0: with negative equity (buybacks among others) return on equity is not meaningfully computable.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Integrated Freight & Logistics stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
United Parcel Service, Inc UPS $95.82 $107.84 +13%
FedEx Corporation FDX $291.50 $347.68 +19%
Deutsche Post AG DHL €56.48 €136.05 +141%
DSV A/S DSV kr 1,235 kr 712.57 −42%
Kuehne + Nagel International AG KNIN CHF 228.10 CHF 147.92 −35%
J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc JBHT $234.63 $133.80 −43%
S.F. Holding 002352 ¥30.94 ¥106.04 +243%
C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc CHRW $149.67 $86.56 −42%
Expeditors International of Washington, Inc EXPD $188.03 $115.95 −38%
ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc 2057 HK$155.70 HK$260.98 +68%

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Hong Yuan Holding Group · Fair Value
$0.0344 −8%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Hong Yuan Holding Group Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/HGYN

Frequently asked questions

Is Hong Yuan Holding Group (HGYN) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $0.0344 versus a price of $0.0370, about −7% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of HGYN?
Our model-based fair value for Hong Yuan Holding Group is $0.0344 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $0.0370.
What is the quality score of HGYN?
Hong Yuan Holding Group has a Quality Score of 75/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Hong Yuan Holding Group (HGYN)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $0.0344 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 3 valuation models. Cautious scenario $0.0307, optimistic scenario $0.0344. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Hong Yuan Holding Group stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $0.0344, about −7% upside versus a price of $0.0370 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario $0.0307, optimistic scenario $0.0344. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Hong Yuan Holding Group (HGYN)?
Hong Yuan Holding Group reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $838K (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Hong Yuan Holding Group (HGYN)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Hong Yuan Holding Group it is $0.0344 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $0.0370. It is the blended result of 3 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Hong Yuan Holding Group stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, HGYN trades above its calculated fair value: price $0.0370, fair value $0.0344, a gap of about −7% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of HGYN?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($0.0370); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($0.0344). For Hong Yuan Holding Group the two are $0.0026 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Hong Yuan Holding Group worth?
The market values Hong Yuan Holding Group at about $2.8M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $0.0370; our models calculate a fair value of $0.0344 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about HGYN?
Our models span a range for Hong Yuan Holding Group: cautious scenario $0.0307, base $0.0344, optimistic $0.0344 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $0.0370). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Hong Yuan Holding Group (HGYN)?
Balance-sheet figures for Hong Yuan Holding Group (as of Sep 23, 2026): negative equity, so no return on equity and no debt-to-equity ratio. They feed the Quality Score of 75/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is HGYN from its 52-week high?
Hong Yuan Holding Group trades at $0.0370, about 75% below its 52-week high of $0.1500 and 85% above the low of $0.0200 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $0.0344 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Hong Yuan Holding Group?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value United Parcel Service, Inc, FedEx Corporation, Deutsche Post AG, DSV A/S, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Hong Yuan Holding Group stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $0.0370, calculated fair value $0.0344 (−7%), Quality Score 75/100, from 3 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of HGYN calculated?
We run Hong Yuan Holding Group through 3 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $0.0344, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Hong Yuan Holding Group itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Hong Yuan Holding Group (HGYN)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was $0.0370. Our model-based fair value is $0.0344, about −7% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Hong Yuan Holding Group right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($0.0344). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. The models converge in a tight band ($0.0307 to $0.0344), unusually little disagreement for a valuation. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.

Key figures of Hong Yuan Holding Group

How large is the market capitalisation of Hong Yuan Holding Group (HGYN)?
The market capitalisation of Hong Yuan Holding Group is $2.8M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Hong Yuan Holding Group (HGYN)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Hong Yuan Holding Group is 3.12 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What is the net margin of Hong Yuan Holding Group (HGYN)?
The net margin of Hong Yuan Holding Group is 18.9% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Hong Yuan Holding Group (HGYN)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Hong Yuan Holding Group is −73.8% (avg 3y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Hong Yuan Holding Group (HGYN)?
The operating margin of Hong Yuan Holding Group is 18.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Hong Yuan Holding Group (HGYN)?
Revenue at Hong Yuan Holding Group is growing −2.1% versus a year earlier. How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Hong Yuan Holding Group (HGYN)?
Earnings per share at Hong Yuan Holding Group are growing +95.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Hong Yuan Holding Group (HGYN) generate?
The free cash flow of Hong Yuan Holding Group is −$26.4K (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Hong Yuan Holding Group (HGYN) hold?
Hong Yuan Holding Group holds more cash than debt, $6.8K net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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