Huntington Ingalls Industries Inc (HII) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 5, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Huntington Ingalls Industries Inc stock $249, price $289, that is 14.0% below the price, quality 59 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 3, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $154.94 – $451.78 · fair‑value band $171.64 – $326.20 · the $289.41 price screens above the $248.92 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 3, 2026.
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Huntington Ingalls Industries, Inc. designs, builds, overhauls, and repairs military ships in the United States. It operates through three segments: Ingalls, Newport News, and Mission Technologies.
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The company is involved in the design and construction of non-nuclear ships comprising amphibious assault ships, surface combatants, and national security cutters for the U.S. Navy and U.S. Coast Guard.
It also provides nuclear-powered ships, such as aircraft carriers and submarines, as well as refueling and overhaul, and inactivation services of nuclear-powered aircraft carriers.
In addition, the company offers naval nuclear support services, including fleet services comprising design, construction, maintenance, and disposal activities for in-service the U.S. Navy nuclear ships; and maintenance services on nuclear reactor prototypes.
Further, the company provides C5ISR systems and operations; application of artificial intelligence and machine learning to battlefield decisions; defensive and offensive cyberspace strategies and electronic warfare; uncrewed autonomous systems; live, virtual, and constructive solutions; platform modernization; and critical nuclear operations.
Huntington Ingalls Industries, Inc. was founded in 1886 and is headquartered in Newport News, Virginia.
Stock analysis
Huntington Ingalls Industries Inc (HII) currently trades at $289.41, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $248.92, 14% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $300.64 per share, and 7 of the 26 models we run sit above the $289.41 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $29.40, and 19 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $171.64 (bear) to $326.20 (bull), the price of $289.41 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 59/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Huntington Ingalls Industries Inc reported revenue of $12.5B in FY2025 versus $9.5B in FY2021, a compound +7.0%/yr. Reported net income was $605M in FY2025, compounding +2.7%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $11.4B Large · P/E ratio 17.2 · P/S ratio 0.84 · EPS (TTM) $16.82 · Dividend yield 1.9% · Net margin 5.4% · Return on equity 14.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.2%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 45 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 36% below its 52-week high and 13% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −27% fair-value upside, at −14%, HII screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$171.64Fair Value $248.92Bull$326.20
Price $289.41 · Downside -14.0%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($9.60 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, 3 officers or directors sold shares worth $5.6M and none bought.
SaleChristopher D KastnerDirector, President & CEO, Director2× since Nov 12, 2025: 28,070 shares, avg. $322.86$9.1MAug 10, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleVictoria D HarkerDirector723 shares at $333.17$240,882Aug 7, 2026
SaleEdmond E. Hughes Jr.Ex VP & Chief HR Officer2× since Nov 20, 2025: 4,350 shares, avg. $318.77$1.4MMay 28, 2026
SaleThomas E. StiehleEx. VP and CFO4,500 shares at $430.54$1.9MMar 6, 2026
SaleChad N. BoudreauxEx VP & Chief Legal Officer2× since Nov 26, 2025: 5,187 shares, avg. $406.02$2.1MMar 5, 2026
SaleEric D. ChewningEVP, Maritime Sys & Corp STR1,700 shares at $433.44$736,848Mar 4, 2026
SaleNicolas G SchuckCorp VP, Controller & CAO1,720 shares at $457.39$786,711Mar 2, 2026
SaleEdgar A Green IIIEx VP, Pres. HII Mission Tech4,448 shares at $457.74$2.0MMar 2, 2026
Plus 42 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.71/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+8.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +5.9% a year
Revenue growth 16 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.4%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
+3.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+2.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.9%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.2.7% vs 6.3%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.8% → 5%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+2.7%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+5.9%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +0.3% a year for the price and +3.4% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (100 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
AI conclusion: The business benefits from high-barrier sole-source carrier overhaul work ensuring steady results, yet shows only moderate positioning with insufficient evidence of unique competitive advantages.
Main risk: Heavy reliance on the US Navy for about 81 percent of revenue could expose the company to budget delays, continuing resolutions or program reprioritizations that hit multiple programs at once.
Bull case: The company could leverage its sole-source position on nuclear carriers and expanding unmanned programs to secure longer-term funding stability and diversify within defense budgets.
Bear case: Prolonged budget gridlock or shifts in Navy priorities could reduce contract awards and delay work on carrier overhauls and other programs, pressuring revenue and cash flow.
HII just won the large sole-source contract to refuel and overhaul the USS Truman, locking in years of nuclear carrier work through 2031. The same division is also moving into unmanned surface vessels with fresh Navy orders using its autonomy systems. Will the predictable, high-barrier carrier overhaul business keep driving steady results, or will the unmanned expansion deliver faster growth and better margins?
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Aerospace & Defense · 241 stocks
Beats the industry median on 11/15 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score59 · Above median
Fair Value upside−14.0% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)14.0% · Above median
Return on assets4.8% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)5.4% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)7.7% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)10.8% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months)1.9% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.53× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Aerospace & Defense median · lower = cheaper
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Is Huntington Ingalls Industries Inc (HII) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 3, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $248.92 versus a price of $289.41, about 14% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of HII?
Our model-based fair value for Huntington Ingalls Industries Inc is $248.92 (as of Nov 3, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $289.41.
What is the quality score of HII?
Huntington Ingalls Industries Inc has a Quality Score of 59/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Huntington Ingalls Industries Inc (HII)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $248.92 (as of Nov 3, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $171.64, optimistic scenario $326.20. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Huntington Ingalls Industries Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $248.92, about 14% lower versus a price of $289.41 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $171.64, optimistic scenario $326.20. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Huntington Ingalls Industries Inc (HII)?
Huntington Ingalls Industries Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $13.5B (latest available figure, as of Nov 3, 2026).
Does Huntington Ingalls Industries Inc pay a dividend?
Huntington Ingalls Industries Inc currently shows a dividend yield of 1.91% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 3, 2026).
What growth is priced into Huntington Ingalls Industries Inc (HII)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Huntington Ingalls Industries Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +2.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +5.9 % per year. As of Nov 3, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of HII use?
Our models discount Huntington Ingalls Industries Inc at 8.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.21, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Huntington Ingalls Industries Inc that is +2.7 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Huntington Ingalls Industries Inc (HII) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Huntington Ingalls Industries Inc grew +5.9 % a year. The price currently implies +2.7 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Huntington Ingalls Industries Inc (HII) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Huntington Ingalls Industries Inc (+2.7 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Huntington Ingalls Industries Inc (HII)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 6.95 %: that much free cash flow Huntington Ingalls Industries Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Huntington Ingalls Industries Inc (HII)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Huntington Ingalls Industries Inc it is $248.92 per share (as of Nov 3, 2026), against a price of $289.41. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Huntington Ingalls Industries Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 3, 2026, HII trades above its calculated fair value: price $289.41, fair value $248.92, a gap of about −14% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of HII?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($289.41); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($248.92). For Huntington Ingalls Industries Inc the two are $40.49 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Huntington Ingalls Industries Inc worth?
The market values Huntington Ingalls Industries Inc at about $11.4B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 3, 2026). Per share that is $289.41; our models calculate a fair value of $248.92 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about HII?
Our models span a range for Huntington Ingalls Industries Inc: cautious scenario $171.64, base $248.92, optimistic $326.20 per share (as of Nov 3, 2026, price $289.41). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of HII?
Huntington Ingalls Industries Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 17.2 (as of Nov 3, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $248.92 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings, FY2019, FY2025 ex one-offs: 15.2. Other multiples: PEG 1.0, P/B 2.3, P/S 0.8, EV/EBITDA 10.7.
What is the PEG ratio of HII?
The PEG ratio of Huntington Ingalls Industries Inc is 0.97 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 3, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Huntington Ingalls Industries Inc (HII)?
Balance-sheet figures for Huntington Ingalls Industries Inc (as of Nov 3, 2026): return on equity 14.0%, debt of 0.53 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 59/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is HII from its 52-week high?
Huntington Ingalls Industries Inc trades at $289.41, about 36% below its 52-week high of $451.78 and 13% above the low of $257.05 (as of Nov 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $248.92 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Huntington Ingalls Industries Inc?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value General Electric Company, RTX Corporation, Airbus SE, Lockheed Martin Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Huntington Ingalls Industries Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 3, 2026: price $289.41, calculated fair value $248.92 (−14%), Quality Score 59/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of HII calculated?
We run Huntington Ingalls Industries Inc through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $248.92, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. Huntington Ingalls Industries Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Huntington Ingalls Industries Inc (HII)?
The closing price on Nov 5, 2026 was $289.41. Our model-based fair value is $248.92, about 14% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Huntington Ingalls Industries Inc right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (59/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range ($171.64 to $326.20) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Huntington Ingalls Industries Inc (HII) come from?
Earnings per share at Huntington Ingalls Industries Inc grew +6.1 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +8.3 %, EBIT margin −8.3 %, tax rate +1.9 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +4.8 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Huntington Ingalls Industries Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Huntington Ingalls Industries Inc (HII)?
The market capitalisation of Huntington Ingalls Industries Inc is $11.4B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Huntington Ingalls Industries Inc (HII)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Huntington Ingalls Industries Inc is 0.84 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Huntington Ingalls Industries Inc (HII)?
Earnings per share at Huntington Ingalls Industries Inc are $16.82 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 17.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Huntington Ingalls Industries Inc (HII)?
The dividend yield of Huntington Ingalls Industries Inc is 1.9% (payout 32.8%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Huntington Ingalls Industries Inc (HII)?
The net margin of Huntington Ingalls Industries Inc is 5.4% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Huntington Ingalls Industries Inc (HII)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Huntington Ingalls Industries Inc is 14.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Huntington Ingalls Industries Inc (HII)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Huntington Ingalls Industries Inc is 5.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Huntington Ingalls Industries Inc (HII)?
The operating margin of Huntington Ingalls Industries Inc is 7.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Huntington Ingalls Industries Inc (HII)?
Revenue at Huntington Ingalls Industries Inc is growing +10.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +5.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Huntington Ingalls Industries Inc (HII)?
Earnings per share at Huntington Ingalls Industries Inc are growing +48.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Huntington Ingalls Industries Inc (HII) carry?
The net debt of Huntington Ingalls Industries Inc is $2.4B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 3.0 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 3, 2026