Henderson Land Development (HLDCY) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Henderson Land Development $2.53, price $3.40, upside -25.6%, quality 53 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 2, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $1.95 – $4.37 · fair‑value band $1.89 – $3.16 · the $3.40 price screens above the $2.53 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 2, 2026.
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Henderson Land Development Company Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the property development and investment activities in Hong Kong and Mainland China.
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Henderson Land Development Company Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the property development and investment activities in Hong Kong and Mainland China. The company operates through Property Development, Property Leasing, Department Stores and Supermarket-Cum-Stores Operations, Hotel Room Operation, Other Businesses, and Utility and Energy segments. The Property Development segment develops and sells real estate properties. Its property portfolio primarily includes offices, shopping arcades, and shopping malls. The Property Leasing segment leases properties. The Department Stores and Supermarket-Cum-Stores Operations segment operates and manages department stores and supermarket-cum-stores. The Hotel Room Operation segment operates hotel properties. The Other Businesses segment manages hotels; provides construction, finance, project management, property management, agency, and cleaning and security guard services, as well as the trading of building materials. It engages in food and beverage, and travel operations. The Utility and Energy segment is involved in production, distribution, and marketing gas; and water supply and renewable energy businesses. Henderson Land Development Company Limited was founded in 1976 and is based in Central, Hong Kong. Henderson Land Development Company Limited is a subsidiary of Henderson Development Limited.
Stock analysis
Henderson Land Development (HLDCY) currently trades at $3.40, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $2.53, 25.6% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Economic Profit group reads highest at a median of $5.73 per share, and 3 of the 16 models we run sit above the $3.40 price.
Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at $1.01, and 13 of the 16 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $1.89 (bear) to $3.16 (bull), the price of $3.40 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 53/100 (solid quality), in the Real Estate sector.
Weak Growth: Growth has flattened: the last year, three and five years all grew more slowly than the long-term average.
Henderson Land Development reported revenue of HK$25.7B in FY2025 versus HK$23.9B in FY2021, a compound +1.9%/yr. Reported net income was HK$5.6B in FY2025, compounding −19.1%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $16.8B · P/E ratio 22.7 · P/S ratio 4.97 · EPS (TTM) $0.1500 · Dividend yield 5.0% · Net margin 21.9% · Return on equity 1.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 34 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 22% below its 52-week high and 10% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at −48% fair-value upside, at −26%, HLDCY screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $1.89Fair Value $2.53Bull $3.16
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Growth has flattened: the last year, three and five years all grew more slowly than the long-term average.
Revenue growth 1 year
+1.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +0.9% a year
Revenue growth 23 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.4%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis.
−10.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−15.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)5.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−16.0% vs −12.6%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.39% → 17%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+13.3%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+5.0%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in HKD, Hong Kong: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.8% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +10.9% a year for the price and +2.8% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (15 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Negative
Recent news coverage is more negative than average.
Compare Henderson Land Development with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Real Estate - Diversified · 129 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score55 · Above median
Fair Value upside−23.6% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)1.9% · Below median
Return on assets0.5% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)22.0% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)13.5% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth20.0% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)5.0% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.22× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Real Estate - Diversified median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Henderson Land Development Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/HLDCY
Frequently asked questions
Is Henderson Land Development (HLDCY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 2, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $2.53 versus a price of $3.40, about −26% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of HLDCY?
Our model-based fair value for Henderson Land Development is $2.53 (as of Oct 2, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $3.40.
What is the quality score of HLDCY?
Henderson Land Development has a Quality Score of 53/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Henderson Land Development (HLDCY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $2.53 (as of Oct 2, 2026) from 16 valuation models. Cautious scenario $1.89, optimistic scenario $3.16. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Henderson Land Development stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $2.53, about −26% upside versus a price of $3.40 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $1.89, optimistic scenario $3.16. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Henderson Land Development (HLDCY)?
Henderson Land Development reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$25.7B (latest available figure, as of Oct 2, 2026).
Does Henderson Land Development pay a dividend?
Henderson Land Development currently shows a dividend yield of about 4.95% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 2, 2026).
What growth is priced into Henderson Land Development (HLDCY)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Henderson Land Development would have to grow free cash flow by +13.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +0.6 % per year. As of Oct 2, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of HLDCY use?
Our models discount Henderson Land Development at 9.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 1.14, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Henderson Land Development that is +13.3 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Henderson Land Development (HLDCY) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Henderson Land Development grew +0.6 % a year. The price currently implies +13.3 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Henderson Land Development (HLDCY) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +1.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Henderson Land Development (+13.3 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Henderson Land Development (HLDCY)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 5.69 %: that much free cash flow Henderson Land Development produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Henderson Land Development (HLDCY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Henderson Land Development it is $2.53 per share (as of Oct 2, 2026), against a price of $3.40. It is the blended result of 16 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Henderson Land Development stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 2, 2026, HLDCY trades above its calculated fair value: price $3.40, fair value $2.53, a gap of about −26% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of HLDCY?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($3.40); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($2.53). For Henderson Land Development the two are $0.8700 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Henderson Land Development worth?
The market values Henderson Land Development at about $16.8B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 2, 2026). Per share that is $3.40; our models calculate a fair value of $2.53 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about HLDCY?
Our models span a range for Henderson Land Development: cautious scenario $1.89, base $2.53, optimistic $3.16 per share (as of Oct 2, 2026, price $3.40). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of HLDCY?
Henderson Land Development trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 22.7 (as of Oct 2, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $2.53 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.6, P/B 0.4, P/S 5.2, EV/EBITDA 39.8.
What is the PEG ratio of HLDCY?
The PEG ratio of Henderson Land Development is 0.59 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Oct 2, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Henderson Land Development (HLDCY)?
Balance-sheet figures for Henderson Land Development (as of Oct 2, 2026): return on equity 1.9%, debt of 0.22 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 53/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is HLDCY from its 52-week high?
Henderson Land Development trades at $3.40, about 22% below its 52-week high of $4.37 and 10% above the low of $3.09 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $2.53 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Henderson Land Development?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value Swiss Prime Site AG, Central Pattana Public Company, The Phoenix Mills Limited, Prestige Estates Projects Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Henderson Land Development stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 2, 2026: price $3.40, calculated fair value $2.53 (−26%), Quality Score 53/100, from 16 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of HLDCY calculated?
We run Henderson Land Development through 16 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $2.53, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Henderson Land Development itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Henderson Land Development (HLDCY)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $3.40. Our model-based fair value is $2.53, about −26% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Henderson Land Development right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($3.16). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (53/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Where does the earnings growth of Henderson Land Development (HLDCY) come from?
Earnings per share at Henderson Land Development grew −11.0 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +0.8 %, EBIT margin −4.2 %, tax rate +0.1 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −7.9 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Henderson Land Development
How large is the market capitalisation of Henderson Land Development (HLDCY)?
The market capitalisation of Henderson Land Development is $16.8B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Henderson Land Development (HLDCY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Henderson Land Development is 4.97 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Henderson Land Development (HLDCY)?
Earnings per share at Henderson Land Development are $0.1500 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 22.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Henderson Land Development (HLDCY)?
The dividend yield of Henderson Land Development is 5.0% (payout 112%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Henderson Land Development (HLDCY)?
The net margin of Henderson Land Development is 21.9% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Henderson Land Development (HLDCY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Henderson Land Development is 1.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Henderson Land Development (HLDCY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Henderson Land Development is 1.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Henderson Land Development (HLDCY)?
The operating margin of Henderson Land Development is 13.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Henderson Land Development (HLDCY)?
Revenue at Henderson Land Development is growing +20.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +0.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Henderson Land Development (HLDCY)?
Earnings per share at Henderson Land Development are growing −16.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Henderson Land Development (HLDCY) carry?
The net debt of Henderson Land Development is HK$142B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 18.9 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Oct 2, 2026