Hillgrove Resources Limited (HLGVF) Fair Value & Analysis
Basic Materials · US · Market cap $138M
Hillgrove Resources Limited
HLGVF · US
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 9 valuation models · updated 5 days ago
Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from $0.0320 to $0.0313 (−2.2%) since Jul 29, 2026. Share price −31.6% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 18% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($0.0351). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (27/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $0.0200 – $0.4184 · fair‑value band $0.0275 – $0.0351 · the $0.0383 price screens above the $0.0313 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Hillgrove Resources Limited (HLGVF) currently trades at $0.0383, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $0.0313, implying the stock looks roughly 18.3% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 27/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Hillgrove Resources Limited generated revenue of $168M at a net margin of 0.1%. Revenue grew 19.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 0.1%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $13.8M. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $0.0275 (bear case) to $0.0351 (bull case); at $0.0383, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 32% below its 52-week high and 56% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at -54% fair-value upside, at -18%, HLGVF screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 9 models by family
Widest divergence: Dividend Discount ($0.0300) versus Economic Profit ($0.0100). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 33 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 23
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Hillgrove Resources Limited engages in the operation, exploration, and development of mineral properties in Australia. It primarily explores for copper, gold, and silver deposits. The company's project is the Kanmantoo Copper mine located approximately 55 kilometres from Adelaide, South Australia.
Full company description
Hillgrove Resources Limited engages in the operation, exploration, and development of mineral properties in Australia. It primarily explores for copper, gold, and silver deposits. The company's project is the Kanmantoo Copper mine located approximately 55 kilometres from Adelaide, South Australia. Hillgrove Resources Limited was incorporated in 1952 and is headquartered in Unley, Australia.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2019 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Hillgrove Resources Limited reported revenue of $168M in FY2025 versus $115M in FY2019, a compound +6.5%/yr. Reported net income was $92.0K in FY2025.
HLGVF screens 18% overvalued. Compare with Southern Copper Corporation →
Peer Group
Copper · 60 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Copper median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Copper stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Southern Copper Corporation SCCO | $194.89 | $85.17 | -56% |
| Freeport-McMoRan Inc FCX | $69.22 | $22.81 | -67% |
| First Quantum Minerals Ltd FM | C$44.14 | C$10.06 | -77% |
| Lundin Mining Corporation LUN | C$36.91 | C$18.67 | -49% |
| Jiangxi Copper Company 600362 | ¥46.47 | ¥35.19 | -24% |
| Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group 000630 | ¥6.63 | ¥3.06 | -54% |
| Hudbay Minerals Inc HBM | C$38.79 | C$21.25 | -45% |
| Zhejiang Hailiang Co 002203 | ¥19.78 | ¥6.39 | -68% |
| Capstone Copper Corp CS | C$15.66 | C$7.15 | -54% |
| Yunnan Copper Co 000878 | ¥16.68 | ¥7.46 | -55% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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