Holmen AB (publ) (HOLM-A) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Holmen AB (publ) SEK 224, price SEK 321, upside -30.4%, quality 58 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Holmen AB (publ) engages in the forest, paperboard, paper, wood products, and renewable energy businesses in Sweden and internationally. The company operates through Forest, Renewable Energy, Wood Products, and Board and Paper segments. Its Forest segment offers logs, pulpwood, and biofuel to sawmills, pulp mills, and board and paper mills.
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Holmen AB (publ) engages in the forest, paperboard, paper, wood products, and renewable energy businesses in Sweden and internationally. The company operates through Forest, Renewable Energy, Wood Products, and Board and Paper segments. Its Forest segment offers logs, pulpwood, and biofuel to sawmills, pulp mills, and board and paper mills. The Renewable energy segment provides renewable energy from hydro and wind power to the Nordic electricity market. Its Wood Products segment provides construction and joinery timber; CLT and glulam; and plus wood for pallets and packaging to construction, joinery, and packaging industries, as well as builders' merchants. The Board and Paper segment offers paperboards for consumer packaging and paper products for books, magazines, advertising, and transport packaging to brand owners, converters, wholesalers, publishers, printers, and retailers. The company was founded in 1609 and is headquartered in Stockholm, Sweden.
Stock analysis
Holmen AB (publ) (HOLM-A) currently trades at kr 321.00, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is kr 223.51, 30.4% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of kr 248.33 per share, and 2 of the 22 models we run sit above the kr 321.00 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at kr 125.08, and 20 of the 22 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: kr 164.94 (bear) to kr 287.21 (bull), the price of kr 321.00 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 58/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Holmen AB (publ) reported revenue of 22.1B SEK in FY2025 versus 19.5B SEK in FY2021, a compound +3.2%/yr. Reported net income was 2.9B SEK in FY2025, compounding −1.1%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 48.3B SEK (≈ $4.8B) · P/E ratio 16.9 · P/S ratio 2.21 · EPS (TTM) kr 17.70 · Dividend yield 3.0% · Net margin 13.1% · Return on equity 4.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.6%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 12% below its 52-week high and 9% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 18% fair-value upside, at −30%, HOLM-A screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear kr 164.94Fair Value kr 223.51Bull kr 287.21
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (kr 6.20 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−3.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−2.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +3.3% a year
Revenue growth 23 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.4%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+3.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+0.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.0.1% vs 13.2%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.15% → 11%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+13.5%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+0.5%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Sweden: IMF forecast 2.0% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +11.3% a year for the price and −1.5% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (15 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Paper & Paper Products · 117 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score58 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−30.4% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)4.8% · Above median
Return on assets1.5% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)11.9% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)7.2% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth1.1% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)3.0% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.06× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Paper & Paper Products median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)16.9× · Cheaper than median
P/B0.87× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM)2.16× · Priciest 25%
P/FCF28.2× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA15.5× · Priciest 25%
PEG4.94× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 19
FUTURE (revenue growth)6· sector 19
PAST (return on equity)19· sector 14
HEALTH (low debt)97· sector 91
DIVIDEND (yield)59· sector 39
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Holmen AB (publ) Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/HOLM-A
Frequently asked questions
Is Holmen AB (publ) (HOLM-A) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 30, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of kr 223.51 versus a price of kr 321.00, about −30% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of HOLM-A?
Our model-based fair value for Holmen AB (publ) is kr 223.51 (as of Sep 30, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: kr 321.00.
What is the quality score of HOLM-A?
Holmen AB (publ) has a Quality Score of 58/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Holmen AB (publ) (HOLM-A)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of kr 223.51 (as of Sep 30, 2026) from 22 valuation models. Cautious scenario kr 164.94, optimistic scenario kr 287.21. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Holmen AB (publ) stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at kr 223.51, about −30% upside versus a price of kr 321.00 (overvalued). Cautious scenario kr 164.94, optimistic scenario kr 287.21. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Holmen AB (publ) (HOLM-A)?
Holmen AB (publ) reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 22.4B SEK (latest available figure, as of Sep 30, 2026).
Does Holmen AB (publ) pay a dividend?
Holmen AB (publ) currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.96% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 30, 2026).
What growth is priced into Holmen AB (publ) (HOLM-A)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Holmen AB (publ) would have to grow free cash flow by +13.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +6.2 % per year. As of Sep 30, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of HOLM-A use?
Our models discount Holmen AB (publ) at 8.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.25, country premium for Sweden. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Holmen AB (publ) that is +13.5 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Holmen AB (publ) (HOLM-A) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Holmen AB (publ) grew +6.2 % a year. The price currently implies +13.5 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Holmen AB (publ) (HOLM-A) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.1 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Holmen AB (publ) (+13.5 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Holmen AB (publ) (HOLM-A)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.55 %: that much free cash flow Holmen AB (publ) produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Holmen AB (publ) (HOLM-A)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Holmen AB (publ) it is kr 223.51 per share (as of Sep 30, 2026), against a price of kr 321.00. It is the blended result of 22 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Holmen AB (publ) stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 30, 2026, HOLM-A trades above its calculated fair value: price kr 321.00, fair value kr 223.51, a gap of about −30% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of HOLM-A?
No. The price is what the market pays today (kr 321.00); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (kr 223.51). For Holmen AB (publ) the two are kr 97.49 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Holmen AB (publ) worth?
The market values Holmen AB (publ) at about 48.3B SEK (market capitalisation, as of Sep 30, 2026). Per share that is kr 321.00; our models calculate a fair value of kr 223.51 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about HOLM-A?
Our models span a range for Holmen AB (publ): cautious scenario kr 164.94, base kr 223.51, optimistic kr 287.21 per share (as of Sep 30, 2026, price kr 321.00). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of HOLM-A?
Holmen AB (publ) trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 16.9 (as of Sep 30, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of kr 223.51 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 4.9, P/B 0.9, P/S 2.2, EV/EBITDA 15.5.
What is the PEG ratio of HOLM-A?
The PEG ratio of Holmen AB (publ) is 4.94 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 30, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Holmen AB (publ) (HOLM-A)?
Balance-sheet figures for Holmen AB (publ) (as of Sep 30, 2026): return on equity 4.8%, debt of 0.06 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 58/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is HOLM-A from its 52-week high?
Holmen AB (publ) trades at kr 321.00, about 12% below its 52-week high of kr 364.43 and 9% above the low of kr 295.00 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of kr 223.51 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Holmen AB (publ)?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value UPM-Kymmene Oyj, Shandong Sunpaper Co, Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) Limited, The Navigator Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Holmen AB (publ) stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 30, 2026: price kr 321.00, calculated fair value kr 223.51 (−30%), Quality Score 58/100, from 22 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of HOLM-A calculated?
We run Holmen AB (publ) through 22 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of kr 223.51, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Holmen AB (publ) itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Holmen AB (publ) (HOLM-A)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was kr 321.00. Our model-based fair value is kr 223.51, about −30% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Holmen AB (publ) right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (kr 287.21). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (58/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Where does the earnings growth of Holmen AB (publ) (HOLM-A) come from?
Earnings per share at Holmen AB (publ) grew +14.8 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +4.7 %, EBIT margin +7.5 %, tax rate +0.4 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +1.6 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Holmen AB (publ)
How large is the market capitalisation of Holmen AB (publ) (HOLM-A)?
The market capitalisation of Holmen AB (publ) is 48.3B SEK (≈ $4.8B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Holmen AB (publ) (HOLM-A)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Holmen AB (publ) is 2.21 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Holmen AB (publ) (HOLM-A)?
Earnings per share at Holmen AB (publ) are kr 17.70 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 16.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Holmen AB (publ) (HOLM-A)?
The dividend yield of Holmen AB (publ) is 3.0% (payout 53.7%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Holmen AB (publ) (HOLM-A)?
The net margin of Holmen AB (publ) is 13.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Holmen AB (publ) (HOLM-A)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Holmen AB (publ) is 4.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Holmen AB (publ) (HOLM-A)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Holmen AB (publ) is 5.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Holmen AB (publ) (HOLM-A)?
The operating margin of Holmen AB (publ) is 7.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Holmen AB (publ) (HOLM-A)?
Revenue at Holmen AB (publ) is growing +1.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg −2.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Holmen AB (publ) (HOLM-A)?
Earnings per share at Holmen AB (publ) are growing −13.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Holmen AB (publ) (HOLM-A) carry?
The net debt of Holmen AB (publ) is 4.7B SEK (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 2.7 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Sep 30, 2026