Honkarakenne Oyj (HONBS) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · FI · Market cap €15.8M
Fair value as of: Jul 19, 2026
From 1 valuation models · updated 22 days ago
Share price +5.9% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 57% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (€1.72). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (44/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
- A fairly wide model range (€0.8600 to €1.72) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 19, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €2.20 – €6.81 · fair‑value band €0.8600 – €1.72 · the €2.68 price screens above the €1.15 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 19, 2026.
Analysis
Honkarakenne Oyj (HONBS) currently trades at €2.68, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €1.15, implying the stock looks roughly 57.1% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 44/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: low).
Over the trailing twelve months, Honkarakenne Oyj generated revenue of €37.2M at a net margin of -11.1%. Revenue declined 7.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -35.5%. Fundamentals as of Jul 19, 2026
Our scenario range runs from €0.8600 (bear case) to €1.72 (bull case); at €2.68, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 24% below its 52-week high and 22% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 44% fair-value upside, at -57%, HONBS screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 1 models by family
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 19, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 43 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 39
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Honkarakenne Oyj designs, manufactures, and sells log and solid-wood house packages in Finland. The company offers Honka log home kits, such as contemporary log homes, log cabins and holiday lodges, and traditional log homes; custom log homes; and fusion log homes, as well as massive and insulated walls, doors, corner types, roofs, interior wall, windows, …
Full company description
Honkarakenne Oyj designs, manufactures, and sells log and solid-wood house packages in Finland. The company offers Honka log home kits, such as contemporary log homes, log cabins and holiday lodges, and traditional log homes; custom log homes; and fusion log homes, as well as massive and insulated walls, doors, corner types, roofs, interior wall, windows, and sliding doors. It also provides design and construction services; and log billets and process by-products. The company sells its houses under the Honka brand name. It also exports its products. Honkarakenne Oyj was founded in 1958 and is headquartered in Karstula, Finland.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Honkarakenne Oyj reported revenue of €37.2M in FY2025 versus €69.7M in FY2021, a compound −14.5%/yr. Reported net income was −€4.1M in FY2025.
HONBS screens 57% overvalued. Compare with D.R. Horton, Inc →
Peer Group
Residential Construction · 65 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Residential Construction median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Residential Construction stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 19, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| D.R. Horton, Inc DHI | $149.39 | $214.93 | +44% |
| PulteGroup, Inc PHM | $124.75 | $193.56 | +55% |
| Lennar Corporation LEN | $83.89 | $146.58 | +75% |
| NVR, Inc NVR | $6,479 | $7,821 | +21% |
| Toll Brothers, Inc TOL | $150.76 | $225.76 | +50% |
| Taylor Morrison Home Corporation TMHC | $72.13 | $144.47 | +100% |
| Installed Building Products, Inc IBP | $228.65 | $209.51 | -8% |
| Meritage Homes Corporation MTH | $73.83 | $104.26 | +41% |
| Champion Homes, Inc SKY | $82.70 | $75.12 | -9% |
| Cavco Industries, Inc CVCO | $569.16 | $421.10 | -26% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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