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Horizon Construction Development Limited (HRZCF) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 18, 2026: fair value of Horizon Construction Development Limited $0.71, price $1.30, upside -45.4%, quality 37 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
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Industrials · US

HC Horizon Construction Development Limited logo Some data Sep 24, 2026

Horizon Construction Development Limited

HRZCF · US

Weakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.

!Fair value $0.7100 · Strongly overvalued (−45%)
!Quality 37/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue 3y +23.5 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 1.6% net margin (TTM)
!Moderate debt · negative free cash flow
·1.08% dividend yield
!Trails peers (3/13)
!Narrow moat 28/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
!Weak on past: 5 out of 100
!Weak on dividend: 22 out of 100
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$1.30 $1.29 Fair Value $0.7100 May 2025 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

How to read this chart

16‑month range $1.29 – $1.30 · fair‑value band $0.5300 – $1.01 · the $1.30 price screens above the $0.7100 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

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Company profile

Horizon Construction Development Limited, together with its subsidiaries, operates as an investment holding company that provides equipment operation services in the People's Republic of China. It operates through Operating lease services; Engineering and technical services; and Asset management and other services segments.

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Horizon Construction Development Limited, together with its subsidiaries, operates as an investment holding company that provides equipment operation services in the People's Republic of China. It operates through Operating lease services; Engineering and technical services; and Asset management and other services segments. The company also provides operating lease services that cover various types of equipment and materials, including aerial work platforms, turnover materials and mould bases, neo-excavation support systems, neo-formwork systems, and road equipment. In addition, the company offers engineering and technical services, platforms, and other services comprising the sale of equipment, materials, and spare parts. Further, it is involved in construction and related services, electric power supply services, equipment repair and maintenance services and logistics services; and asset management services, subleasing services and related maintenance services. Additionally, the company provides wholesale trade of a variety of goods; trade in machinery tools and accessories, and leasing of construction and civil machinery; repair and maintenance of mining and construction machinery, electrical equipment repair and maintenance of engines, generators and steam generators. Horizon Construction Development Limited was founded in 2011 and is headquartered in Tianjin, China.

Stock analysis

Horizon Construction Development Limited (HRZCF) currently trades at $1.30, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $0.7100, implying the stock looks roughly 83.1% overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Earnings-Based group reads highest at a median of $6.08 per share, and 12 of the 14 models we run sit above the $1.30 price.

Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at $1.06, and 2 of the 14 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.

Scenario range: $0.5300 (bear) to $1.01 (bull), the price of $1.30 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 37/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

Horizon Construction Development Limited reported revenue of 11.6B CNY in FY2024 versus 6.1B CNY in FY2021, a compound +23.5%/yr. Reported net income was 896M CNY in FY2024, compounding +8.1%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap $4.2B · P/E ratio 43.3 · P/S ratio 3.35 · EPS (TTM) $0.0300 · Dividend yield 1.1% · Net margin 7.7% · Return on equity 1.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.8%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades at its 52-week high and at its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −13% fair-value upside, at −45%, HRZCF screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $0.5300 Fair Value $0.7100 Bull $1.01
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2024 figures (about 12 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.0160 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Residual Income $2.92 $3.11 $3.41 68
EV/EBITDA $9.97 $14.60 $19.24 67
EPV $0.3800 $1.06 $1.64 66
All 14 models by family
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd $1.91 $13.29 $18.66 60
Lynch FV $4.26 $6.08 $7.90 58
PEG = 1.0 $4.26 $6.08 $7.90 55
EPV $0.3800 $1.06 $1.64 66
Multiples
P/E Multiple $4.42 $5.89 $7.36 63
P/S Multiple $3.57 $4.77 $5.96 58
P/B Multiple $3.57 $4.77 $5.96 55
EV/EBIT $3.72 $6.27 $8.82 64
EV/EBITDA $9.97 $14.60 $19.24 67
EV/Revenue $0.6300 $2.58 $4.54 48
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $1.79 $2.40 $3.58 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income $2.92 $3.11 $3.41 68
ROIC Compounder $0.3800 $1.06 $1.64 65
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E $5.68 $8.12 $10.56 65

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 37/100

Of which business quality 39 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 65

Profitability 28
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 46
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 50
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 16
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 16
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 100
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 41
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 67
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 82
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 44/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+20.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+23.5%
What shareholders gained per year (last 3 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 3 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+10.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+9.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.1%
Profit margin 2021 to 2024 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.25% → 17%

HRZCF screens 83% overvalued. Compare with United Rentals, Inc →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Rental & Leasing Services · 91 stocks

Beats the industry median on 3/13 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 37 · Below median
Fair Value upside −45% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 1% · Below median
Return on assets 1% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) 2% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) 9% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth −25% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 1.1% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 1.25× · Above median

Valuation Multiplesvs Rental & Leasing Services median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 43.3× · Priciest 25%
P/B 0.36× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (TTM) 0.44× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA 4.8× · Cheaper than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 63
FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 30
PAST (return on equity)5 · sector 27
HEALTH (low debt)37 · sector 58
DIVIDEND (yield)22 · sector 44

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

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U-Haul Holding UHAL $62.07 $7.57 −88%
Ryder System, Inc R $236.50 $161.47 −32%
Element Fleet Management Corp EFN C$24.82 C$21.21 −15%
BOC Aviation Limited 2588 HK$71.75 HK$145.99 +103%
GATX Corporation GATX $183.01 $128.33 −30%
Avis Budget Group CAR $107.73 $158.81 +47%
WillScot Holdings WSC $18.35 $43.19 +135%

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Horizon Construction Development Limited · Fair Value
$0.7100 −83%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Horizon Construction Development Limited Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/HRZCF

Frequently asked questions

Is Horizon Construction Development Limited (HRZCF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $0.7100 versus a price of $1.30, about −45% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of HRZCF?
Our model-based fair value for Horizon Construction Development Limited is $0.7100 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $1.30.
What is the quality score of HRZCF?
Horizon Construction Development Limited has a Quality Score of 37/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Horizon Construction Development Limited (HRZCF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $0.7100 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 14 valuation models. Cautious scenario $0.5300, optimistic scenario $1.01. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Horizon Construction Development Limited stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $0.7100, about −45% upside versus a price of $1.30 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $0.5300, optimistic scenario $1.01. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Horizon Construction Development Limited (HRZCF)?
Horizon Construction Development Limited reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $9.4B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Horizon Construction Development Limited pay a dividend?
Horizon Construction Development Limited currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.08% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Horizon Construction Development Limited (HRZCF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Horizon Construction Development Limited it is $0.7100 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $1.30. It is the blended result of 14 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Horizon Construction Development Limited stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, HRZCF trades above its calculated fair value: price $1.30, fair value $0.7100, a gap of about −45% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of HRZCF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($1.30); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($0.7100). For Horizon Construction Development Limited the two are $0.5900 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Horizon Construction Development Limited worth?
The market values Horizon Construction Development Limited at about $4.2B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $1.30; our models calculate a fair value of $0.7100 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about HRZCF?
Our models span a range for Horizon Construction Development Limited: cautious scenario $0.5300, base $0.7100, optimistic $1.01 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $1.30). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of HRZCF?
Horizon Construction Development Limited trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 43.3 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $0.7100 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.4, P/S 0.4, EV/EBITDA 4.8.
How solid is the balance sheet of Horizon Construction Development Limited (HRZCF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Horizon Construction Development Limited (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 1.3%, debt of 1.25 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 37/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is HRZCF from its 52-week high?
Horizon Construction Development Limited trades at $1.30, at its 52-week high of $1.30 and at the low of $1.30 (as of Sep 18, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $0.7100 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Horizon Construction Development Limited?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value United Rentals, Inc, Sunbelt Rentals Holdings, AerCap Holdings, U-Haul Holding, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Horizon Construction Development Limited stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $1.30, calculated fair value $0.7100 (−45%), Quality Score 37/100, from 14 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of HRZCF calculated?
We run Horizon Construction Development Limited through 14 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $0.7100, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Horizon Construction Development Limited itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Horizon Construction Development Limited (HRZCF)?
The closing price on Sep 18, 2026 was $1.30. Our model-based fair value is $0.7100, about −45% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Horizon Construction Development Limited right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($1.01). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (37/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. A fairly wide model range ($0.5300 to $1.01) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Key figures of Horizon Construction Development Limited

How large is the market capitalisation of Horizon Construction Development Limited (HRZCF)?
The market capitalisation of Horizon Construction Development Limited is $4.2B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Horizon Construction Development Limited (HRZCF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Horizon Construction Development Limited is 3.35 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Horizon Construction Development Limited (HRZCF)?
Earnings per share at Horizon Construction Development Limited are $0.0300 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 43.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Horizon Construction Development Limited (HRZCF)?
The dividend yield of Horizon Construction Development Limited is 1.1% (payout 46.7%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Horizon Construction Development Limited (HRZCF)?
The net margin of Horizon Construction Development Limited is 7.7% (fiscal year 2024). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Horizon Construction Development Limited (HRZCF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Horizon Construction Development Limited is 1.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Horizon Construction Development Limited (HRZCF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Horizon Construction Development Limited is 5.8% (avg 4y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Horizon Construction Development Limited (HRZCF)?
The operating margin of Horizon Construction Development Limited is 8.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Horizon Construction Development Limited (HRZCF)?
Revenue at Horizon Construction Development Limited is growing −25.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +23.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Horizon Construction Development Limited (HRZCF)?
Earnings per share at Horizon Construction Development Limited are growing −82.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Horizon Construction Development Limited (HRZCF) generate?
The free cash flow of Horizon Construction Development Limited is −$3.3B (fiscal year 2024). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Horizon Construction Development Limited (HRZCF) carry?
The net debt of Horizon Construction Development Limited is $19.1B (fiscal year 2024). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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