Heiwa Real Estate Co., Ltd. (HWARF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 13, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Heiwa Real Estate Co., Ltd. stock $11.23, price $14.81, that is 24.2% below the price, quality 35 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 9 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 14, 2026.
How to read this chart
22‑month range $13.16 – $1,017,627 · fair‑value band $8.53 – $15.83 · the $14.81 price screens above the $11.23 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 14, 2026.
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Heiwa Real Estate Co., Ltd. operates as a real estate company in Japan. It operates in two segments, Building Business and Asset Management Business. The company develops, leases, manages, and sells stock exchange buildings, office buildings, commercial facilities, and housing.
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It also provides property management and real estate agency services. The company was incorporated in 1947 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.
Stock analysis
Heiwa Real Estate Co., Ltd. (HWARF) currently trades at $14.81, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $11.23, 24% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $14.20 per share, and 2 of the 8 models we run sit above the $14.81 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $6.07, and 6 of the 8 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $8.53 (bear) to $15.83 (bull), the price of $14.81 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 35/100 (below-average quality), in the Real Estate sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Heiwa Real Estate Co., Ltd. reported revenue of ¥50.9B in FY2026 versus ¥57.8B in FY2022, a compound −3.2%/yr. Reported net income was ¥11.0B in FY2026, compounding +6.1%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap $979M Small · P/E ratio 27.4 · P/S ratio 5.95 · EPS (TTM) $0.5400 · Dividend yield 3.5% · Net margin 21.7% · Return on equity 8.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.2% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 56 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 8% above its previous 52-week high, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at −51% fair-value upside, at −24%, HWARF screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$8.53Fair Value $11.23Bull$15.83
Price $14.81 · Downside -24.2%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 8 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.0127 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
Residual Income$10.04$10.79$12.1276
Gordon GGM$8.20$13.21$18.6268
DDM Multi-Stage$8.20$11.77$15.4767
All 9 models by family
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM$8.20$13.21$18.6268
DDM Multi-Stage$8.20$11.77$15.4767
Multiples
P/S Multiple$13.33$17.78$22.2258
P/B Multiple$13.60$18.13$22.6755
EV/EBIT$0.4500$8.33$16.2157
EV/EBITDA$2.17$10.62$19.0760
EV/Revenuen/an/a$1.0250
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)$4.53$6.07$9.0754
Economic Profit
Residual Income$10.04$10.79$12.1276
The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for dilution from new shares.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.42/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+20.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.7%
Start year 2021 (pandemic)
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
’26
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in JPY ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in JPY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
−1.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−4.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.5%
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.32% → 30%
Compare Heiwa Real Estate Co., Ltd. with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Real Estate - Diversified · 115 stocks
Beats the industry median on 3/13 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score35 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−24.2% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)8.6% · Above median
Return on assets2.4% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)21.3% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)25.3% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)−16.0% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months)3.5% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.84× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Real Estate - Diversified median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Heiwa Real Estate Co., Ltd. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/HWARF
Frequently asked questions
Is Heiwa Real Estate Co., Ltd. (HWARF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 14, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $11.23 versus a price of $14.81, about 24% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of HWARF?
Our model-based fair value for Heiwa Real Estate Co., Ltd. is $11.23 (as of Nov 14, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $14.81.
What is the quality score of HWARF?
Heiwa Real Estate Co., Ltd. has a Quality Score of 35/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Heiwa Real Estate Co., Ltd. (HWARF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $11.23 (as of Nov 14, 2026) from 9 valuation models. Cautious scenario $8.53, optimistic scenario $15.83. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Heiwa Real Estate Co., Ltd. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $11.23, about 24% lower versus a price of $14.81 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $8.53, optimistic scenario $15.83. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Heiwa Real Estate Co., Ltd. (HWARF)?
Heiwa Real Estate Co., Ltd. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥48.8B (latest available figure, as of Nov 14, 2026).
Does Heiwa Real Estate Co., Ltd. pay a dividend?
Heiwa Real Estate Co., Ltd. currently shows a dividend yield of 3.51% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 14, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Heiwa Real Estate Co., Ltd. (HWARF) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Heiwa Real Estate Co., Ltd. pays a dividend of $0.52 per share a year, a dividend yield of 3.5%. The next ex-dividend date is Mar 30, 2027. The payout ratio is 49.7% of earnings. Our assessment: Watch coverage. The dividend isn’t fully covered by free cash flow or earnings, part of it is funded from reserves or debt. Fine for now, but worth watching: if it stays uncovered, the dividend could be cut.
What is the intrinsic value of Heiwa Real Estate Co., Ltd. (HWARF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Heiwa Real Estate Co., Ltd. it is $11.23 per share (as of Nov 14, 2026), against a price of $14.81. It is the blended result of 9 valuation models in 4 families (Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit).
Is Heiwa Real Estate Co., Ltd. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 14, 2026, HWARF trades above its calculated fair value: price $14.81, fair value $11.23, a gap of about −24% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of HWARF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($14.81); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($11.23). For Heiwa Real Estate Co., Ltd. the two are $3.58 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Heiwa Real Estate Co., Ltd. worth?
The market values Heiwa Real Estate Co., Ltd. at about $979M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 14, 2026). Per share that is $14.81; our models calculate a fair value of $11.23 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about HWARF?
Our models span a range for Heiwa Real Estate Co., Ltd.: cautious scenario $8.53, base $11.23, optimistic $15.83 per share (as of Nov 14, 2026, price $14.81). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of HWARF?
Heiwa Real Estate Co., Ltd. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 27.4 (as of Nov 14, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $11.23 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.2, P/S 3.2, EV/EBITDA 17.3.
How solid is the balance sheet of Heiwa Real Estate Co., Ltd. (HWARF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Heiwa Real Estate Co., Ltd. (as of Nov 14, 2026): return on equity 8.6%, debt of 1.84 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 35/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is HWARF from its 52-week high?
Heiwa Real Estate Co., Ltd. trades at $14.81, about 8% above its previous 52-week high of $13.67 and 12% above the low of $13.28 (as of Nov 13, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $11.23 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Heiwa Real Estate Co., Ltd.?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value Swiss Prime Site AG, The Phoenix Mills Limited, Prestige Estates Projects Limited, Umm Al Qura for Development and Construction Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Heiwa Real Estate Co., Ltd. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 14, 2026: price $14.81, calculated fair value $11.23 (−24%), Quality Score 35/100, from 9 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of HWARF calculated?
We run Heiwa Real Estate Co., Ltd. through 9 models from 4 families: Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $11.23 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1% above its aggregate fair value. Heiwa Real Estate Co., Ltd. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Heiwa Real Estate Co., Ltd. (HWARF)?
The closing price on Nov 13, 2026 was $14.81. Our model-based fair value is $11.23, about 24% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Heiwa Real Estate Co., Ltd. right now?
Weak quality (35/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. A fairly wide model range ($8.53 to $15.83) leaves room in how you read the outcome. As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Key figures of Heiwa Real Estate Co., Ltd.
How large is the market capitalisation of Heiwa Real Estate Co., Ltd. (HWARF)?
The market capitalisation of Heiwa Real Estate Co., Ltd. is $979M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Heiwa Real Estate Co., Ltd. (HWARF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Heiwa Real Estate Co., Ltd. is 5.95 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Heiwa Real Estate Co., Ltd. (HWARF)?
Earnings per share at Heiwa Real Estate Co., Ltd. are $0.5400 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 27.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Heiwa Real Estate Co., Ltd. (HWARF)?
The dividend yield of Heiwa Real Estate Co., Ltd. is 3.5% (payout 96.3%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Heiwa Real Estate Co., Ltd. (HWARF)?
The net margin of Heiwa Real Estate Co., Ltd. is 21.7% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Heiwa Real Estate Co., Ltd. (HWARF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Heiwa Real Estate Co., Ltd. is 8.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Heiwa Real Estate Co., Ltd. (HWARF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Heiwa Real Estate Co., Ltd. is 3.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Heiwa Real Estate Co., Ltd. (HWARF)?
The operating margin of Heiwa Real Estate Co., Ltd. is 25.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Heiwa Real Estate Co., Ltd. (HWARF)?
Revenue at Heiwa Real Estate Co., Ltd. is down 16.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +4.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Heiwa Real Estate Co., Ltd. (HWARF)?
Earnings per share at Heiwa Real Estate Co., Ltd. are down 27.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Heiwa Real Estate Co., Ltd. (HWARF) generate?
The free cash flow of Heiwa Real Estate Co., Ltd. is −¥6.0B (fiscal year 2026). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Heiwa Real Estate Co., Ltd. (HWARF) carry?
The net debt of Heiwa Real Estate Co., Ltd. is ¥245B (fiscal year 2026). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Nov 14, 2026