Harworth Group PLC (HWG) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 11, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Harworth Group PLC stock £0.50, price £1.98, that is 74.7% below the price, quality 37 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 6 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range £0.9272 – £2.07 · fair‑value band £0.3700 – £0.6200 · the £1.98 price screens above the £0.5000 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 13, 2026.
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Harworth Group plc operates as a regeneration, strategic land, and development businesses. It operates through two segments, Income Generation and Capital Growth.
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The Income Generation segment is involved in generating rental returns from the investment portfolio; rental returns and royalties from energy generation, environmental technologies, and the agricultural portfolio; and provision of recycled aggregates products.
The Capital Growth segment engages in the planning and development, value engineering, proactive asset management, and strategic land acquisition activities. Its property portfolio includes commercial, industrial and logistics, and residential properties.
The company was formerly known as Coalfield Resources plc and changed its name to Harworth Group plc in March 2015. Harworth Group plc was incorporated in 1991 and is headquartered in Rotherham, the United Kingdom.
Stock analysis
Harworth Group PLC (HWG) currently trades at £1.98, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is £0.5000, 75% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of £2.40 per share, and 1 of the 6 models we run sit above the £1.98 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at £0.2350, and 5 of the 6 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: £0.3700 (bear) to £0.6200 (bull), the price of £1.98 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 37/100 (below-average quality), in the Real Estate sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Harworth Group PLC reported revenue of £131M in FY2025 versus £110M in FY2021, a compound +4.4%/yr. Reported net income was £9.5M in FY2025, compounding −43.7%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap £641M Small · P/S ratio 4.89 · EPS (TTM) £−0.0800 · Dividend yield 0.9% · Net margin −20.7% · Return on equity −3.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 6.6% (5-year average) · Operating margin −53.2%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 14 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 5% below its 52-week high and 65% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at −4% fair-value upside, at −75%, HWG screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear£0.3700Fair Value £0.5000Bull£0.6200
Price £1.98 · Downside -74.7%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−28.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−7.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +25.8% a year
Revenue growth 35 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.7%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−17.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−18.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.9%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−18.7% vs −14.6%, slowing
Profit margin 2019 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.17% → −18%
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Real Estate - Development · 491 stocks
Beats the industry median on 1/10 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score37 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−74.7% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets0.9% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)−20.7% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months)−53.2% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)−13.1% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months)0.9% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.25× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Real Estate - Development median · lower = cheaper
P/B0.92× · Pricier than median
P/S (12 months)5.19× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 69
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 0
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 17
HEALTH (low debt)88· sector 83
DIVIDEND (yield)19· sector 61
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Harworth Group PLC Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/HWG
Frequently asked questions
Is Harworth Group PLC (HWG) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of £0.5000 versus a price of £1.98, about 75% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of HWG?
Our model-based fair value for Harworth Group PLC is £0.5000 (as of Nov 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: £1.98.
What is the quality score of HWG?
Harworth Group PLC has a Quality Score of 37/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Harworth Group PLC (HWG)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of £0.5000 (as of Nov 13, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario £0.3700, optimistic scenario £0.6200. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Harworth Group PLC stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at £0.5000, about 75% lower versus a price of £1.98 (overvalued). Cautious scenario £0.3700, optimistic scenario £0.6200. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Harworth Group PLC (HWG)?
Harworth Group PLC reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about £124M (latest available figure, as of Nov 13, 2026).
Does Harworth Group PLC pay a dividend?
Harworth Group PLC currently shows a dividend yield of 0.93% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 13, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Harworth Group PLC (HWG) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Harworth Group PLC pays a dividend of £0.0183 per share a year, a dividend yield of 0.9%. The last ex-dividend date was Sep 24, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since 2016. The payout ratio is 62.8% of earnings. Our assessment: Token dividend. At a yield of 0.9% the dividend is symbolic. On paper it is not fully covered by earnings or free cash flow, but at this size that hardly matters: even scrapping it entirely would cost less than 0.9% a year, and coverage ratios on amounts this small swing with ordinary working-capital movements. Judge this company on its business, not on its dividend.
What is the intrinsic value of Harworth Group PLC (HWG)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Harworth Group PLC it is £0.5000 per share (as of Nov 13, 2026), against a price of £1.98. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models in 4 families (Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit).
Is Harworth Group PLC stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 13, 2026, HWG trades above its calculated fair value: price £1.98, fair value £0.5000, a gap of about −75% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of HWG?
No. The price is what the market pays today (£1.98); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (£0.5000). For Harworth Group PLC the two are £1.48 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Harworth Group PLC worth?
The market values Harworth Group PLC at about £641M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 13, 2026). Per share that is £1.98; our models calculate a fair value of £0.5000 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about HWG?
Our models span a range for Harworth Group PLC: cautious scenario £0.3700, base £0.5000, optimistic £0.6200 per share (as of Nov 13, 2026, price £1.98). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Harworth Group PLC (HWG)?
Balance-sheet figures for Harworth Group PLC (as of Nov 13, 2026): return on equity −3.7%, debt of 0.25 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 37/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is HWG from its 52-week high?
Harworth Group PLC trades at £1.98, about 5% below its 52-week high of £2.07 and 65% above the low of £1.20 (as of Nov 11, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of £0.5000 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Harworth Group PLC?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value Sun Hung Kai Properties Limited, CK Asset Holdings, DLF Limited, Hongkong Land Holdings, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Harworth Group PLC stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 13, 2026: price £1.98, calculated fair value £0.5000 (−75%), Quality Score 37/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of HWG calculated?
We run Harworth Group PLC through 6 models from 4 families: Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of £0.5000 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.3% above its aggregate fair value. Harworth Group PLC itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Harworth Group PLC (HWG)?
The closing price on Nov 11, 2026 was £1.98. Our model-based fair value is £0.5000, about 75% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Harworth Group PLC right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (£0.6200). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (37/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Where does the earnings growth of Harworth Group PLC (HWG) come from?
Earnings per share at Harworth Group PLC grew −3.7 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +20.0 %, EBIT margin +22.1 %, tax rate −1.6 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −33.2 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Harworth Group PLC
How large is the market capitalisation of Harworth Group PLC (HWG)?
The market capitalisation of Harworth Group PLC is £641M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Harworth Group PLC (HWG)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Harworth Group PLC is 4.89 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Harworth Group PLC (HWG)?
Earnings per share at Harworth Group PLC are £−0.0800. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Harworth Group PLC (HWG)?
The dividend yield of Harworth Group PLC is 0.9%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Harworth Group PLC (HWG)?
The net margin of Harworth Group PLC is −20.7% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Harworth Group PLC (HWG)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Harworth Group PLC is −3.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Harworth Group PLC (HWG)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Harworth Group PLC is 6.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Harworth Group PLC (HWG)?
The operating margin of Harworth Group PLC is −53.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Harworth Group PLC (HWG)?
Revenue at Harworth Group PLC is growing −13.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg −7.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Harworth Group PLC (HWG)?
Earnings per share at Harworth Group PLC are growing −35.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Harworth Group PLC (HWG) generate?
The free cash flow of Harworth Group PLC is −£61.1M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Harworth Group PLC (HWG) carry?
The net debt of Harworth Group PLC is £147M (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Nov 13, 2026