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HEXPOL AB (HXXPY) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 25, 2026: fair value of HEXPOL AB $8.10, price $7.71, upside +5.1%, quality 65 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? Yes
- Good quality? Yes
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Some data
Sep 24, 2026
Some data
Sep 24, 2026
HEXPOL AB
HXXPY · USNeutralThe stock looks roughly fairly valued with average quality.
·Fair value $8.10 · Fairly valued (+5.1%)
✓Quality 65/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 5y +7.6 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 9.9% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
✓6.1% dividend yield · Sustainable
!Moderate moat 54/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $5.80 – $9.90 · fair‑value band $6.11 – $11.44 · the $7.71 price screens below the $8.10 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
Company profile
HEXPOL AB (publ) develops, manufactures, and sells various polymer compounds and engineered gaskets, seals, and wheels in Sweden, rest of Europe, the United States, rest of the Americas, and Asia. It operates through two segments, HEXPOL Compounding and HEXPOL Engineered Products.
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HEXPOL AB (publ) develops, manufactures, and sells various polymer compounds and engineered gaskets, seals, and wheels in Sweden, rest of Europe, the United States, rest of the Americas, and Asia. It operates through two segments, HEXPOL Compounding and HEXPOL Engineered Products. The HEXPOL Compounding segment offers natural and synthetic rubber compounds under the HEXFLAME, HEXLIGHT, GloMold, and other brands; thermoplastic elastomer compounds under the Dryflex, Mediprene, Epseal, Lifolit, and Lifocork brands; and thermoplastic compounds under the RheTech brand. Its HEXPOL Engineered Products segment develops finished gaskets and seals under the Gislaved Gummi brand, as well as wheels under the Stellana brand. It serves the automotive and engineering; building, construction, and civil engineering; aerospace and transportation; energy; consumer products and electronics; cable and wire; oil and gas; rollers; agriculture; hose; graphic production; toy, sport, and leisure; and plumbing industries, as well as manufacturers of medical equipment, plate heat exchangers, forklifts, and castor wheels. The company was formerly known as Hexagon Polymers AB and changed its name to HEXPOL AB (publ) in May 2008. HEXPOL AB (publ) was founded in 1893 and is headquartered in Malmö, Sweden.
Stock analysis
HEXPOL AB (HXXPY) currently trades at $7.71, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $8.10, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 4.8%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $9.98 per share, and 14 of the 24 models we run sit above the $7.71 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $2.84, and 10 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $6.11 (bear) to $11.44 (bull), the price of $7.71 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 65/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
HEXPOL AB reported revenue of 19.3B SEK in FY2025 versus 16.0B SEK in FY2021, a compound +4.8%/yr. Reported net income was 1.9B SEK in FY2025, compounding −4.7%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $2.7B · P/E ratio 12.7 · P/S ratio 1.28 · EPS (TTM) $0.5700 · Dividend yield 6.1% · Net margin 10.1% · Return on equity 12.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 14.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 52 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 22% below its 52-week high and 6% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −39% fair-value upside, at 5%, HXXPY screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $6.11
Fair Value $8.10
Bull $11.44
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.4310 per share) are deliberately not added.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF
$5.70
$7.66
$11.17
78
Growth DCF
$5.93
$7.81
$10.94
77
Owner Earnings
$6.25
$8.42
$12.29
74
All 24 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF
$5.70
$7.66
$11.17
78
Owner Earnings
$6.25
$8.42
$12.29
74
5Y Revenue Exit
$5.86
$8.47
$12.28
70
5Y EBITDA Exit
$6.40
$9.41
$13.40
73
5Y P/E Exit
$6.33
$9.29
$12.83
69
10Y Revenue Exit
$5.60
$7.51
$9.56
66
10Y EBITDA Exit
$6.08
$8.08
$10.21
67
10Y P/E Exit
$6.03
$8.00
$9.88
63
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd
$3.99
$4.88
$5.49
65
EPV
$6.16
$7.08
$7.87
74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM
$3.84
$4.19
$4.71
67
DDM Multi-Stage
$3.84
$4.75
$5.99
65
Multiples
P/E Multiple
$7.48
$9.98
$12.47
63
P/S Multiple
$6.57
$8.76
$10.94
58
P/B Multiple
$7.48
$9.98
$12.47
55
EV/EBIT
$9.20
$12.15
$15.10
66
EV/EBITDA
$7.97
$10.51
$13.05
67
EV/Revenue
$6.47
$9.10
$11.73
54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
$2.12
$2.84
$4.24
54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF
$5.93
$7.81
$10.94
77
Rev-Margin DCF
$5.86
$8.60
$11.96
71
Economic Profit
Residual Income
$4.07
$4.77
$5.95
74
ROIC Compounder
$6.16
$7.31
$8.50
70
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E
$5.33
$7.62
$9.90
65
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
65/100
Of which business quality 62 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 32
Profitability
50
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
38
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
53
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
66
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
97
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
71
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
16
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
15
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
82
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−5.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−4.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+6.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+0.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)6.1%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.14% → 14%
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+5.3%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+2.7%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in SEK, Sweden: IMF forecast 2.0% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +3.3% a year for the price and +0.7% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)−2.1%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+4.4%
Projected 2028 (sales)+4.1%
Projected 2029 (sales)+3.8%
Projected 2030 (sales)+3.5%
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Specialty Chemicals · 684 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/10 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation Multiplesvs Specialty Chemicals median · lower = cheaper
Context: sector, industry, market
- Is the Materials sector expensive or cheap?
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: US Stocks
- Valuation of the USA market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more Specialty Chemicals stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Linde plc LIN | $474.65 | $441.72 | −7% |
| The Sherwin-Williams Company SHW | $330.44 | $151.68 | −54% |
| Ecolab Inc ECL | $274.58 | $96.56 | −65% |
| Air Products and Chemicals, Inc APD | $279.19 | $121.30 | −57% |
| Nan Ya Plastics Corporation 1303 | 238.00 TWD | 234.23 TWD | −2% |
| Givaudan SA GIVN | CHF 3,360 | CHF 1,527 | −55% |
| Wanhua Chemical Group 600309 | ¥69.45 | ¥68.03 | −2% |
| DSM-Firmenich AG DSFIR | CHF 92.30 | CHF 29.70 | −68% |
| Asian Paints Limited ASIANPAINT | ₹2,444 | ₹1,479 | −39% |
| PPG Industries, Inc PPG | $104.67 | $76.98 | −26% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is HEXPOL AB (HXXPY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $8.10 versus the last price from Sep 25, 2026 of $7.71, about +5% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of HXXPY?
Our model-based fair value for HEXPOL AB is $8.10 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. Last price (from Sep 25, 2026): $7.71.
What is the quality score of HXXPY?
HEXPOL AB has a Quality Score of 65/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for HEXPOL AB (HXXPY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $8.10 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $6.11, optimistic scenario $11.44. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the HEXPOL AB stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $8.10, about +5% upside versus the last price from Sep 25, 2026 of $7.71 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario $6.11, optimistic scenario $11.44. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of HEXPOL AB (HXXPY)?
HEXPOL AB reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 20.5B SEK (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does HEXPOL AB pay a dividend?
HEXPOL AB currently shows a dividend yield of about 6.07% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into HEXPOL AB (HXXPY)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, HEXPOL AB would have to grow free cash flow by +5.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +7.6 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of HXXPY use?
Our models discount HEXPOL AB at 9.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.84, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For HEXPOL AB that is +5.3 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has HEXPOL AB (HXXPY) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at HEXPOL AB grew +7.6 % a year. The price currently implies +5.3 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of HEXPOL AB (HXXPY) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +14.0 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into HEXPOL AB (+5.3 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of HEXPOL AB (HXXPY)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 6.61 %: that much free cash flow HEXPOL AB produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of HEXPOL AB (HXXPY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For HEXPOL AB it is $8.10 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $7.71. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is HEXPOL AB stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, HXXPY trades below its calculated fair value: price $7.71, fair value $8.10, a gap of about +5% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of HXXPY?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($7.71); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($8.10). For HEXPOL AB the two are $0.3900 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is HEXPOL AB worth?
The market values HEXPOL AB at about $2.7B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $7.71; our models calculate a fair value of $8.10 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about HXXPY?
Our models span a range for HEXPOL AB: cautious scenario $6.11, base $8.10, optimistic $11.44 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $7.71). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of HXXPY?
HEXPOL AB trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 12.7 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $8.10 is built from several models across several years.
How solid is the balance sheet of HEXPOL AB (HXXPY)?
Balance-sheet figures for HEXPOL AB (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 12.3%. They feed the Quality Score of 65/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is HXXPY from its 52-week high?
HEXPOL AB trades at $7.71, about 22% below its 52-week high of $9.90 and 6% above the low of $7.24 (as of Sep 25, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $8.10 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to HEXPOL AB?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Linde plc, The Sherwin-Williams Company, Ecolab Inc, Air Products and Chemicals, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is HEXPOL AB stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $7.71, calculated fair value $8.10 (+5%), Quality Score 65/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of HXXPY calculated?
We run HEXPOL AB through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $8.10, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. HEXPOL AB currently trades 5 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of HEXPOL AB (HXXPY)?
The latest price we hold is from Sep 25, 2026 and stands at $7.71. Our model-based fair value is $8.10, about +5% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with HEXPOL AB right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. A fairly wide model range ($6.11 to $11.44) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of HEXPOL AB
How large is the market capitalisation of HEXPOL AB (HXXPY)?
The market capitalisation of HEXPOL AB is $2.7B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of HEXPOL AB (HXXPY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of HEXPOL AB is 1.28 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of HEXPOL AB (HXXPY)?
Earnings per share at HEXPOL AB are $0.5700 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 12.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of HEXPOL AB (HXXPY)?
The dividend yield of HEXPOL AB is 6.1% (payout 82.1%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of HEXPOL AB (HXXPY)?
The net margin of HEXPOL AB is 10.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of HEXPOL AB (HXXPY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of HEXPOL AB is 12.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of HEXPOL AB (HXXPY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of HEXPOL AB is 14.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
How fast is revenue growing at HEXPOL AB (HXXPY)?
Revenue at HEXPOL AB is growing −11.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg −4.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at HEXPOL AB (HXXPY)?
Earnings per share at HEXPOL AB are growing −15.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does HEXPOL AB (HXXPY) carry?
The net debt of HEXPOL AB is 2.8B SEK (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 1.6 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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