Inocycle Technology Tbk PT (INOV) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Inocycle Technology Tbk PT IDR 271, price IDR 135, upside +100.4%, quality 55 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 52.00 IDR – 334.40 IDR · fair‑value band 227.20 IDR – 320.10 IDR · the 135.00 IDR price screens below the 270.51 IDR fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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PT Inocycle Technology Group Tbk engages in the production and sale of recycle polyester staple fiber in Indonesia.
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PT Inocycle Technology Group Tbk engages in the production and sale of recycle polyester staple fiber in Indonesia. It provides hollow conjugated, solid, and special function fiber; and padding, needle punching, geotextile, and thermal bonding products for use in various industries, such as mining, construction, agriculture, manufacturing, and infrastructure. The company also offers homeware products, comprising mattresses, pillows, bolsters, blankets, carpets, mattress protectors, dolls, and bed cover sets. The company was formerly known as PT Hilon Felt and changed its name to PT Inocycle Technology Group Tbk in 2019. PT Inocycle Technology Group Tbk was founded in 2001 and is headquartered in Tangerang, Indonesia.
Stock analysis
Inocycle Technology Tbk PT (INOV) currently trades at 135.00 IDR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 270.51 IDR, implying the stock looks roughly 50.1% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of 515.05 IDR per share, and 15 of the 24 models we run sit above the 135.00 IDR price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at 39.46 IDR, and 9 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: 227.20 IDR (bear) to 320.10 IDR (bull), the price of 135.00 IDR sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 55/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Inocycle Technology Tbk PT reported revenue of 682B IDR in FY2025 versus 633B IDR in FY2021, a compound +1.9%/yr. Reported net income was 9.5B IDR in FY2025, compounding −23.2%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 244B IDR (≈ $13.6M) · P/E ratio 7.3 · P/S ratio 0.10 · EPS (TTM) 18.56 IDR · Net margin 1.4% · Return on equity 14.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.9% · Operating margin 12.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 46 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 45% below its 52-week high and 44% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −18% fair-value upside, at 100%, INOV screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 227.20 IDRFair Value 270.51 IDRBull 320.10 IDR
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (13.58 IDR per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.70/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+8.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−0.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 9 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.0%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in IDR ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in IDR: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
−17.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−17.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−18% vs −1%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.2% → 7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−5.3%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Indonesia: IMF forecast 2.6% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −7.7% a year for the price.
Compare Inocycle Technology Tbk PT with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Waste Management · 168 stocks
Beats the industry median on 13/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score55 · Above median
Fair Value upside+100% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)15% · Top 25%
Return on assets5% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)6% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)12% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth37% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.04× · Lowest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Waste Management median · lower = cheaper
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Is Inocycle Technology Tbk PT (INOV) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 270.51 IDR versus a price of 135.00 IDR, about +100% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of INOV?
Our model-based fair value for Inocycle Technology Tbk PT is 270.51 IDR (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 135.00 IDR.
What is the quality score of INOV?
Inocycle Technology Tbk PT has a Quality Score of 55/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Inocycle Technology Tbk PT (INOV)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 270.51 IDR (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario 227.20 IDR, optimistic scenario 320.10 IDR. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Inocycle Technology Tbk PT stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 270.51 IDR, about +100% upside versus a price of 135.00 IDR (undervalued). Cautious scenario 227.20 IDR, optimistic scenario 320.10 IDR. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Inocycle Technology Tbk PT (INOV)?
Inocycle Technology Tbk PT reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 730B IDR (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Inocycle Technology Tbk PT (INOV)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Inocycle Technology Tbk PT would have to grow free cash flow by -5.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +5.6 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of INOV use?
Our models discount Inocycle Technology Tbk PT at 11.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (nano), damped by beta 0.74, country premium for Indonesia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Inocycle Technology Tbk PT that is -5.3 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Inocycle Technology Tbk PT (INOV) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Inocycle Technology Tbk PT grew +5.6 % a year. The price currently implies -5.3 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Inocycle Technology Tbk PT (INOV) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Inocycle Technology Tbk PT (-5.3 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Inocycle Technology Tbk PT (INOV)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 11.50 %: that much free cash flow Inocycle Technology Tbk PT produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Inocycle Technology Tbk PT (INOV)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Inocycle Technology Tbk PT it is 270.51 IDR per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of 135.00 IDR. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Inocycle Technology Tbk PT stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, INOV trades below its calculated fair value: price 135.00 IDR, fair value 270.51 IDR, a gap of about +100% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of INOV?
No. The price is what the market pays today (135.00 IDR); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (270.51 IDR). For Inocycle Technology Tbk PT the two are 135.51 IDR per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Inocycle Technology Tbk PT worth?
The market values Inocycle Technology Tbk PT at about 244B IDR (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is 135.00 IDR; our models calculate a fair value of 270.51 IDR per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about INOV?
Our models span a range for Inocycle Technology Tbk PT: cautious scenario 227.20 IDR, base 270.51 IDR, optimistic 320.10 IDR per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price 135.00 IDR). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of INOV?
Inocycle Technology Tbk PT trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 7.3 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 270.51 IDR is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.8, P/S 0.3, EV/EBITDA 1.7.
How solid is the balance sheet of Inocycle Technology Tbk PT (INOV)?
Balance-sheet figures for Inocycle Technology Tbk PT (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 14.6%, debt of 0.04 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 55/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is INOV from its 52-week high?
Inocycle Technology Tbk PT trades at 135.00 IDR, about 45% below its 52-week high of 246.00 IDR and 44% above the low of 94.00 IDR (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 270.51 IDR is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Inocycle Technology Tbk PT?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Waste Management, Inc, Republic Services, Inc, Waste Connections, Inc, Veolia Environnement SA, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Inocycle Technology Tbk PT stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price 135.00 IDR, calculated fair value 270.51 IDR (+100%), Quality Score 55/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of INOV calculated?
We run Inocycle Technology Tbk PT through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 270.51 IDR, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.2 % above its aggregate fair value. Inocycle Technology Tbk PT currently trades 100 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Inocycle Technology Tbk PT (INOV)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was 135.00 IDR. Our model-based fair value is 270.51 IDR, about +100% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Inocycle Technology Tbk PT right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (227.20 IDR). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (55/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Key figures of Inocycle Technology Tbk PT
How large is the market capitalisation of Inocycle Technology Tbk PT (INOV)?
The market capitalisation of Inocycle Technology Tbk PT is 244B IDR (≈ $13.6M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Inocycle Technology Tbk PT (INOV)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Inocycle Technology Tbk PT is 0.10 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Inocycle Technology Tbk PT (INOV)?
Earnings per share at Inocycle Technology Tbk PT are 18.56 IDR (price ÷ EPS = P/E 7.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Inocycle Technology Tbk PT (INOV)?
The net margin of Inocycle Technology Tbk PT is 1.4% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Inocycle Technology Tbk PT (INOV)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Inocycle Technology Tbk PT is 14.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Inocycle Technology Tbk PT (INOV)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Inocycle Technology Tbk PT is 2.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Inocycle Technology Tbk PT (INOV)?
The operating margin of Inocycle Technology Tbk PT is 12.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Inocycle Technology Tbk PT (INOV)?
Revenue at Inocycle Technology Tbk PT is growing +36.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg −0.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Inocycle Technology Tbk PT (INOV)?
Earnings per share at Inocycle Technology Tbk PT are growing +23.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Inocycle Technology Tbk PT (INOV) carry?
The net debt of Inocycle Technology Tbk PT is 505B IDR (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 18.0 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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