Inpost SA (INPST) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 22, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Inpost SA stock €11.40, price €15.39, that is 25.9% below the price, quality 40 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 22 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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IndustrialsNL · Based in Germany · ISIN LU2290522684
ISSome dataNov 1, 2026
Inpost SA
INPST · AS
Expensive,weak quality
Our calculation puts a fair price 26% below what the stock costs today.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 1, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €4.18 – €18.72 · fair‑value band €7.98 – €14.82 · the €15.39 price screens above the €11.40 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 1, 2026.
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InPost S.A., together with its subsidiaries, operates as an out-of-home e-commerce enablement platform providing parcel locker services in Poland and other European countries. InPost S.A. was founded in 1999 and is based in Luxembourg, Luxembourg.
Stock analysis
Inpost SA (INPST) currently trades at €15.39, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €11.40, 26% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of €17.47 per share, and 8 of the 22 models we run sit above the €15.39 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at €2.09, and 14 of the 22 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: €7.98 (bear) to €14.82 (bull), the price of €15.39 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 40/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Inpost SA reported revenue of 14.6B PLN in FY2025 versus 4.6B PLN in FY2021, a compound +33.7%/yr. Reported net income was 549M PLN in FY2025, compounding +2.8%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap €7.7B Mid · P/E ratio 73.3 · P/S ratio 0.56 · EPS (TTM) €0.2100 · Net margin 2.7% · Return on equity 13.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 12.6% · Revenue (TTM) 13.6B PLN.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 43 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 3% below its 52-week high and 65% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −37% fair-value upside, at −26%, INPST screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear€7.98Fair Value €11.40Bull€14.82
Price €15.39 · Downside -25.9%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (€0.1784 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.95/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+34.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+27.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+42.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +48.0% a year
Revenue growth 13 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+35.5%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+9.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+9.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.9.5% vs −12.1%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.25% → 12%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 8.4%/yr over ~10Y (margin trend unclear) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+15.6%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+14.7%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in PLN, Poland: IMF forecast 3.1% a year to 2030, 4.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +12.1% a year for the price and +11.2% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (96 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
AI conclusion: The business benefits from FedEx and Advent backing to expand its European locker network, yet thin evidence of durable advantages leaves its competitive position uncertain.
Main risk: Substantial new debt from the shift to private ownership risks constraining spending on automated parcel machine expansion across Europe.
InPost is preparing to delist from Euronext Amsterdam on 23 October after its owners secured 98.49 percent of the shares. The shift to private ownership brings backing from FedEx and Advent for further locker network growth across Europe, yet it also adds substantial debt. Will the new structure speed up expansion of its automated parcel machines or constrain spending due to higher leverage?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Integrated Freight & Logistics · 208 stocks
P/B10.70× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Inpost SA Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/INPST
Frequently asked questions
Is Inpost SA (INPST) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 1, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €11.40 versus the last price from Oct 22, 2026 of €15.39, about 26% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of INPST?
Our model-based fair value for Inpost SA is €11.40 (as of Nov 1, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. Last price (from Oct 22, 2026): €15.39.
What is the quality score of INPST?
Inpost SA has a Quality Score of 40/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Inpost SA (INPST)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €11.40 (as of Nov 1, 2026) from 22 valuation models. Cautious scenario €7.98, optimistic scenario €14.82. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Inpost SA stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €11.40, about 26% lower versus the last price from Oct 22, 2026 of €15.39 (overvalued). Cautious scenario €7.98, optimistic scenario €14.82. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Inpost SA (INPST)?
Inpost SA reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 13.6B PLN (latest available figure, as of Nov 1, 2026).
What growth is priced into Inpost SA (INPST)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Inpost SA would have to grow free cash flow by +15.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +42.2 % per year. As of Nov 1, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of INPST use?
Our models discount Inpost SA at 9.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 1.05, country premium for Netherlands. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Inpost SA that is +15.6 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Inpost SA (INPST) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Inpost SA grew +42.2 % a year. The price currently implies +15.6 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Inpost SA (INPST) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.9 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Inpost SA (+15.6 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Inpost SA (INPST)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 4.11 %: that much free cash flow Inpost SA produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Inpost SA (INPST)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Inpost SA it is €11.40 per share (as of Nov 1, 2026), against a price of €15.39. It is the blended result of 22 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Inpost SA stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 1, 2026, INPST trades above its calculated fair value: price €15.39, fair value €11.40, a gap of about −26% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of INPST?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€15.39); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€11.40). For Inpost SA the two are €3.99 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Inpost SA worth?
The market values Inpost SA at about €7.7B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 1, 2026). Per share that is €15.39; our models calculate a fair value of €11.40 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about INPST?
Our models span a range for Inpost SA: cautious scenario €7.98, base €11.40, optimistic €14.82 per share (as of Nov 1, 2026, price €15.39). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of INPST?
Inpost SA trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 73.3 (as of Nov 1, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of €11.40 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 10.7, P/S 2.5, EV/EBITDA 19.7.
How solid is the balance sheet of Inpost SA (INPST)?
Balance-sheet figures for Inpost SA (as of Nov 1, 2026): return on equity 13.2%, debt of 1.58 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 40/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is INPST from its 52-week high?
Inpost SA trades at €15.39, about 3% below its 52-week high of €15.87 and 65% above the low of €9.34 (as of Oct 22, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €11.40 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Inpost SA?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value United Parcel Service, Inc, Deutsche Post AG, FedEx Corporation, DSV A/S, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Inpost SA stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 1, 2026: price €15.39, calculated fair value €11.40 (−26%), Quality Score 40/100, from 22 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of INPST calculated?
We run Inpost SA through 22 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €11.40, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. Inpost SA itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Inpost SA (INPST)?
The latest price we hold is from Oct 22, 2026 and stands at €15.39. Our model-based fair value is €11.40, about 26% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Inpost SA right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (€14.82). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (40/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. A fairly wide model range (€7.98 to €14.82) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Inpost SA
How large is the market capitalisation of Inpost SA (INPST)?
The market capitalisation of Inpost SA is €7.7B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Inpost SA (INPST)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Inpost SA is 0.56 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Inpost SA (INPST)?
Earnings per share at Inpost SA are €0.2100 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 73.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Inpost SA (INPST)?
The net margin of Inpost SA is 2.7% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Inpost SA (INPST)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Inpost SA is 13.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Inpost SA (INPST)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Inpost SA is 12.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
How fast is revenue growing at Inpost SA (INPST)?
Revenue at Inpost SA is growing +18.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +27.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Inpost SA (INPST)?
Earnings per share at Inpost SA are growing −31.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Inpost SA (INPST) carry?
The net debt of Inpost SA is 9.1B PLN (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 6.5 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Some data
Nov 1, 2026