Iron Road Ltd (IRD) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Iron Road Ltd A$0.01, price A$0.01, upside +10.9%, quality 61 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$0.0070 – A$0.2750 · fair‑value band A$0.0096 – A$0.0110 · the A$0.0090 price screens below the A$0.0100 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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Iron Road Limited explores for and evaluates iron ore properties in Australia. Its flagship project is the 100% owned Central Eyre iron project located in the Eyre Peninsula of South Australia. The company was incorporated in 2007 and is based in Adelaide, Australia. Iron Road Limited operates as a subsidiary of Sentient Executive GP IV, Limited.
Stock analysis
Iron Road Ltd (IRD) currently trades at A$0.0090, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$0.0100, implying the stock looks roughly 9.8% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of A$0.0700 per share, and 24 of the 24 models we run sit above the A$0.0090 price.
Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at A$0.0500, and 0 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: A$0.0096 (bear) to A$0.0110 (bull), the price of A$0.0090 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 61/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Iron Road Ltd reported revenue of A$7.7M in FY2025 versus A$50.3K in FY2021, a compound +251.7%/yr. Reported net income was A$5.0M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap A$7.9M (≈ $5.6M) · P/S ratio 62.6 · EPS (TTM) A$−0.1200 · Net margin 65.6% · Return on equity −110% · Return on assets (EBIT) −1.2% · Operating margin −1,793% · Free cash flow A$4.1M.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 43 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 82% below its 52-week high and 29% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −45% fair-value upside, at 11%, IRD screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear A$0.0096Fair Value A$0.0100Bull A$0.0110
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.82/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+841.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+173.0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +37.4% a year
Revenue growth 17 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+38.6%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−3,586.8% (2020) → 67.4% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: no profitable base year
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Steel · 411 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/7 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score64 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside0% · Above median
Profitability
Return on assets−1% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)66% · Top 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Steel median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$0.0100 versus a price of A$0.0090, about +11% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of IRD?
Our model-based fair value for Iron Road Ltd is A$0.0100 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$0.0090.
What is the quality score of IRD?
Iron Road Ltd has a Quality Score of 61/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Iron Road Ltd (IRD)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$0.0100 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario A$0.0096, optimistic scenario A$0.0110. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Iron Road Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$0.0100, about +11% upside versus a price of A$0.0090 (undervalued). Cautious scenario A$0.0096, optimistic scenario A$0.0110. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the intrinsic value of Iron Road Ltd (IRD)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Iron Road Ltd it is A$0.0100 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of A$0.0090. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Iron Road Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, IRD trades below its calculated fair value: price A$0.0090, fair value A$0.0100, a gap of about +11% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of IRD?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$0.0090); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$0.0100). For Iron Road Ltd the two are A$0.0010 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Iron Road Ltd worth?
The market values Iron Road Ltd at about A$7.9M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is A$0.0090; our models calculate a fair value of A$0.0100 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about IRD?
Our models span a range for Iron Road Ltd: cautious scenario A$0.0096, base A$0.0100, optimistic A$0.0110 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price A$0.0090). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Iron Road Ltd (IRD)?
Balance-sheet figures for Iron Road Ltd (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity −110.0%. They feed the Quality Score of 61/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is IRD from its 52-week high?
Iron Road Ltd trades at A$0.0090, about 82% below its 52-week high of A$0.0500 and 29% above the low of A$0.0070 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$0.0100 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Iron Road Ltd?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Nucor Corporation, Steel Dynamics, Inc, JSW Steel Limited, Tata Steel Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Iron Road Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price A$0.0090, calculated fair value A$0.0100 (+11%), Quality Score 61/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of IRD calculated?
We run Iron Road Ltd through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of A$0.0100, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Iron Road Ltd currently trades 11 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Iron Road Ltd (IRD)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was A$0.0090. Our model-based fair value is A$0.0100, about +11% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Iron Road Ltd right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (A$0.0096). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The models converge in a tight band (A$0.0096 to A$0.0110), unusually little disagreement for a valuation. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
Key figures of Iron Road Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Iron Road Ltd (IRD)?
The market capitalisation of Iron Road Ltd is A$7.9M (≈ $5.6M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Iron Road Ltd (IRD)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Iron Road Ltd is 62.6 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Iron Road Ltd (IRD)?
Earnings per share at Iron Road Ltd are A$−0.1200. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Iron Road Ltd (IRD)?
The net margin of Iron Road Ltd is 65.6% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Iron Road Ltd (IRD)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Iron Road Ltd is −110% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Iron Road Ltd (IRD)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Iron Road Ltd is −1.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Iron Road Ltd (IRD)?
The operating margin of Iron Road Ltd is −1,793% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How much free cash flow does Iron Road Ltd (IRD) generate?
The free cash flow of Iron Road Ltd is A$4.1M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Iron Road Ltd (IRD) hold?
Iron Road Ltd holds more cash than debt, A$3.6M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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