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Iskenderun Demir ve Çelik A.S. (ISDMR) Fair Value & Analysis

Basic Materials · TR · Market cap 146B TRY

ID Iskenderun Demir ve Çelik A.S. ISDMR · IS
Price50.35 TRY
Fair Value35.83 TRY
Upside-28.8%
Quality41/100
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Expensive Growth
Thin margins · 5.2% net margin
Low debt · generates free cash flow
Mixed vs. peers (6/14)
Narrow moat 28/100
Evidence: High Range 26.87 TRY – 44.79 TRY Share as image

Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026

From 25 valuation models · updated today

Share price −8.3% over the past month.

Below-average quality, and screening another 29% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

  • The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (44.79 TRY). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
  • Weak quality (41/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

63.25 TRY 8.36 TRY Fair Value 35.83 TRY Apr 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range 8.36 TRY – 63.25 TRY · fair‑value band 26.87 TRY – 44.79 TRY · the 50.35 TRY price screens above the 35.83 TRY fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

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Analysis

Iskenderun Demir ve Çelik A.S. (ISDMR) currently trades at 50.35 TRY, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 35.83 TRY, implying the stock looks roughly 28.8% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 41/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).

Over the trailing twelve months, Iskenderun Demir ve Çelik A.S. generated revenue of 126B TRY at a net margin of 5.2%. Revenue grew 17.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 4.9%. Net debt stands at 13.9B TRY. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026

Our scenario range runs from 26.87 TRY (bear case) to 44.79 TRY (bull case); at 50.35 TRY, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 23% below its 52-week high and 56% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at -25% fair-value upside, at -29%, ISDMR screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF 11.27 TRY 15.35 TRY 22.04 TRY 80
Residual Income 37.82 TRY 37.18 TRY 33.36 TRY 76
ROIC Compounder 25.35 TRY 28.39 TRY 31.04 TRY 72
All 25 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF 11.53 TRY 14.06 TRY 22.11 TRY 38
Owner Earnings 40.17 TRY 82.33 TRY 170.84 TRY 31
5Y Revenue Exit 26.15 TRY 44.59 TRY 83.55 TRY 39
5Y EBITDA Exit 22.29 TRY 36.79 TRY 65.31 TRY 41
5Y P/E Exit 28.62 TRY 60.92 TRY 105.93 TRY 38
10Y Revenue Exit 21.28 TRY 48.69 TRY 69.41 TRY 36
10Y EBITDA Exit 19.47 TRY 40.38 TRY 78.70 TRY 37
10Y P/E Exit 24.08 TRY 54.01 TRY 105.49 TRY 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd 14.33 TRY 99.94 TRY 140.26 TRY 54
Lynch FV 45.41 TRY 64.87 TRY 84.33 TRY 50
PEG = 1.0 45.41 TRY 64.87 TRY 84.33 TRY 46
EPV 25.35 TRY 28.39 TRY 31.04 TRY 59
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM 0.0600 TRY 0.1200 TRY 0.1900 TRY 70
DDM Multi-Stage 0.0600 TRY 0.1000 TRY 0.1300 TRY 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple 26.87 TRY 35.83 TRY 44.79 TRY 63
P/S Multiple 26.87 TRY 35.83 TRY 44.79 TRY 58
P/B Multiple 26.87 TRY 35.83 TRY 44.79 TRY 55
EV/EBIT 32.54 TRY 41.01 TRY 49.49 TRY 53
EV/EBITDA 25.61 TRY 31.78 TRY 37.94 TRY 54
EV/Revenue 29.15 TRY 38.59 TRY 48.03 TRY 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) 25.44 TRY 34.10 TRY 50.89 TRY 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF 11.27 TRY 15.35 TRY 22.04 TRY 80
Economic Profit
Residual Income 37.82 TRY 37.18 TRY 33.36 TRY 76
ROIC Compounder 25.35 TRY 28.39 TRY 31.04 TRY 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E 57.08 TRY 81.54 TRY 106.00 TRY 68

Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (81.54 TRY) versus Dividend Discount (0.1000 TRY). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

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Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) 126B TRY
Revenue growth (YoY) +17.7%
Net margin 5.2%
Return on equity 4.9%
Free cash flow 760M TRY FY2025
P/E ratio 22.2
More key figures
Operating margin 4.8%
EPS (TTM) 2.27 TRY
EPS growth (YoY) +46.3%
Net debt 13.9B TRY FY2024

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 41/100

Of which business quality 44 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 68

Profitability 26
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 28
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 30
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 66
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 33
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 77
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 64
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 64
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 82
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Iskenderun Demir ve Çelik A.S. produces and sells flat steel products in Turkey. The company offers hot-rolled flat steel products, including rolled or steel sheets, plate steels, deep drawable steels, wheel and chassis steels, general structural steels, hot rolled pipe steels, pressure vessels and hot rolled steels for pressure purposes, hot rolled steel …

Full company description

Iskenderun Demir ve Çelik A.S. produces and sells flat steel products in Turkey. The company offers hot-rolled flat steel products, including rolled or steel sheets, plate steels, deep drawable steels, wheel and chassis steels, general structural steels, hot rolled pipe steels, pressure vessels and hot rolled steels for pressure purposes, hot rolled steel for welded gas cylinders, and medium and high strength shipbuilding steels. It also provides long products, such as thin wires, welding wires, tire wires, fasteners, PC strands, and springs; and billets used for coil, construction steel, profile, rail, and seamless pipe manufacturing. In addition, the company offers by-products comprising engine and pure benzol, toluene, xylol, crude tar, ammonium sulfate (artificial fertilizer), iron sulfate, coke, oxygen, nitrogen, argon, ammonium sulphate, granulated slag, tar and benzol. Further, it provides after-sales, laboratory and calibration, steel service center, and port services. It exports its products. Iskenderun Demir ve Çelik A.S. was incorporated in 1968 and is based in Hatay, Turkey. Iskenderun Demir ve Çelik A.S. is a subsidiary of Eregli Demir ve Çelik Fabrikalari T.A.S.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Iskenderun Demir ve Çelik A.S. reported revenue of 121B TRY in FY2025 versus 36.5B TRY in FY2021, a compound +34.9%/yr. Reported net income was 6.1B TRY in FY2025, compounding −1.4%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
121B TRY
Latest YoY
+9.5%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+24.9%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+48.2%
Avg. growth/yr (14Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+25.4%
Revenue +34.9%/yr
FY21 36.5B TRY
FY22 62.0B TRY
FY23 88.6B TRY
FY24 110B TRY
FY25 121B TRY
Net income −1.4%/yr
FY21 6.5B TRY
FY22 6.7B TRY
FY23 4.6B TRY
FY24 14.3B TRY
FY25 6.1B TRY

ISDMR screens 29% overvalued. Compare with JSW Steel Limited →

Run the numbers yourself: free valuation calculators
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Iskenderun Demir ve Çelik A.S. · Fair Value
35.83 TRY −29%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Iskenderun Demir ve Çelik A.S. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ISDMR

Peer Group

Steel · 381 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 41 · Below median
Fair Value upside −29% · Below median
Return on equity (TTM) 5% · Above median
Return on assets 2% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 5% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 5% · Above median
Revenue growth 18% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 0.0% · Bottom 25%
Debt / equity 0.20× · Higher than median

Valuation Multiples vs Steel median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 22.2× · Pricier than median
P/B 0.99× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM) 1.16× · Pricier than median
P/FCF 4.0× · Pricier than 75% of peers
EV/EBITDA 9.6× · Pricier than median

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0 · sector 19
FUTURE 89 · sector 2
PAST 20 · sector 15
HEALTH 90 · sector 95
DIVIDEND 0 · sector 41

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Steel stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
JSW Steel Limited JSWSTEEL ₹1,227 ₹1,140 -7%
Tata Steel Limited TATASTEEL ₹185.26 ₹147.13 -21%
Baoshan Iron & Steel Co 600019 ¥5.89 ¥8.07 +37%
China Steel Corporation 2002A 38.55 TWD 8.74 TWD -77%
POSCO Holdings 005490 313,500 KRW 155,270 KRW -50%
Companhia Siderúrgica Nacional, SID 13,670 ARS 15,940 ARS +17%
Jindal Steel Limited JINDALSTEL ₹1,028 ₹545.12 -47%
Lloyds Metals and Energy Limited LLOYDSME ₹1,844 ₹1,098 -40%
SSAB AB SSABA kr 96.04 kr 72.43 -25%
Gerdau S.A GGBN 83.50 MXN 42.64 MXN -49%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Iskenderun Demir ve Çelik A.S. (ISDMR) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 35.83 TRY versus a price of 50.35 TRY, about −29% (overvalued).
What is the fair value of ISDMR?
Our model-based fair value for Iskenderun Demir ve Çelik A.S. is 35.83 TRY (as of Aug 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is 50.35 TRY.
What is the quality score of ISDMR?
Iskenderun Demir ve Çelik A.S. has a Quality Score of 41/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Iskenderun Demir ve Çelik A.S. (ISDMR)?
Iskenderun Demir ve Çelik A.S. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 126B TRY (latest available figure, as of Aug 13, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of ISDMR?
The net profit margin of Iskenderun Demir ve Çelik A.S. is about 5.2%, meaning it keeps roughly 5.2% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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