Iskenderun Demir ve Çelik A.S. (ISDMR) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 25, 2026: fair value of Iskenderun Demir ve Çelik A.S. TRY 25.06, price TRY 63.45, upside -60.5%, quality 41 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 8.36 TRY – 63.45 TRY · fair‑value band 19.14 TRY – 33.31 TRY · the 63.45 TRY price screens above the 25.06 TRY fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Iskenderun Demir ve Çelik A.S. produces and sells flat steel products in Turkey.
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Iskenderun Demir ve Çelik A.S. produces and sells flat steel products in Turkey. The company offers hot-rolled flat steel products, including rolled or steel sheets, plate steels, deep drawable steels, wheel and chassis steels, general structural steels, hot rolled pipe steels, pressure vessels and hot rolled steels for pressure purposes, hot rolled steel for welded gas cylinders, and medium and high strength shipbuilding steels. It also provides long products, such as thin wires, welding wires, tire wires, fasteners, PC strands, and springs; and billets used for coil, construction steel, profile, rail, and seamless pipe manufacturing. In addition, the company offers by-products comprising engine and pure benzol, toluene, xylol, crude tar, ammonium sulfate (artificial fertilizer), iron sulfate, coke, oxygen, nitrogen, argon, ammonium sulphate, granulated slag, tar and benzol. Further, it provides after-sales, laboratory and calibration, steel service center, and port services. It exports its products. Iskenderun Demir ve Çelik A.S. was incorporated in 1968 and is based in Hatay, Turkey. Iskenderun Demir ve Çelik A.S. is a subsidiary of Eregli Demir ve Çelik Fabrikalari T.A.S.
Stock analysis
Iskenderun Demir ve Çelik A.S. (ISDMR) currently trades at 63.45 TRY, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 25.06 TRY, implying the stock looks roughly 153.2% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of 81.54 TRY per share, and 6 of the 25 models we run sit above the 63.45 TRY price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at 27.27 TRY, and 19 of the 25 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: 19.14 TRY (bear) to 33.31 TRY (bull), the price of 63.45 TRY sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 41/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Iskenderun Demir ve Çelik A.S. reported revenue of 121B TRY in FY2025 versus 36.5B TRY in FY2021, a compound +34.9%/yr. Reported net income was 6.1B TRY in FY2025, compounding −1.4%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 184B TRY (≈ $3.8B) · P/E ratio 28.0 · P/S ratio 1.41 · EPS (TTM) 2.27 TRY · Dividend yield 0.0% · Net margin 5.1% · Return on equity 4.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 9.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades at its 52-week high and 95% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −43% fair-value upside, at −61%, ISDMR screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 19.14 TRYFair Value 25.06 TRYBull 33.31 TRY
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (1.68 TRY per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+9.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+24.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+48.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +35.2% a year
Revenue growth 14 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+25.4%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in TRY ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in TRY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+20.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+20.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.17% → 6%
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+69.5%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Turkey: IMF forecast 19.3% a year to 2030, 28.5% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +42.1% a year for the price.
Compare Iskenderun Demir ve Çelik A.S. with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Steel · 413 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/14 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score41 · Below median
Fair Value upside−60.5% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)4.9% · Above median
Return on assets2.1% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)5.2% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)4.8% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth17.7% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)0.0% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.20× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Steel median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)28.0× · Pricier than median
P/B1.25× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM)1.46× · Pricier than median
P/FCF5.0× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA12.5× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 20
FUTURE (revenue growth)89· sector 10
PAST (return on equity)20· sector 16
HEALTH (low debt)90· sector 95
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 49
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Iskenderun Demir ve Çelik A.S. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ISDMR
Frequently asked questions
Is Iskenderun Demir ve Çelik A.S. (ISDMR) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 25.06 TRY versus a price of 63.45 TRY, about −61% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of ISDMR?
Our model-based fair value for Iskenderun Demir ve Çelik A.S. is 25.06 TRY (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 63.45 TRY.
What is the quality score of ISDMR?
Iskenderun Demir ve Çelik A.S. has a Quality Score of 41/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Iskenderun Demir ve Çelik A.S. (ISDMR)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 25.06 TRY (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 25 valuation models. Cautious scenario 19.14 TRY, optimistic scenario 33.31 TRY. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Iskenderun Demir ve Çelik A.S. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 25.06 TRY, about −61% upside versus a price of 63.45 TRY (overvalued). Cautious scenario 19.14 TRY, optimistic scenario 33.31 TRY. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Iskenderun Demir ve Çelik A.S. (ISDMR)?
Iskenderun Demir ve Çelik A.S. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 126B TRY (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Iskenderun Demir ve Çelik A.S. pay a dividend?
Iskenderun Demir ve Çelik A.S. currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.01% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Iskenderun Demir ve Çelik A.S. (ISDMR)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Iskenderun Demir ve Çelik A.S. would have to grow free cash flow by +69.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +48.2 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of ISDMR use?
Our models discount Iskenderun Demir ve Çelik A.S. at 12.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.49, country premium for Turkey. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Iskenderun Demir ve Çelik A.S. that is +69.5 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (12.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Iskenderun Demir ve Çelik A.S. (ISDMR) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Iskenderun Demir ve Çelik A.S. grew +48.2 % a year. The price currently implies +69.5 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Iskenderun Demir ve Çelik A.S. (ISDMR) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.9 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Iskenderun Demir ve Çelik A.S. (+69.5 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Iskenderun Demir ve Çelik A.S. (ISDMR)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 0.41 %: that much free cash flow Iskenderun Demir ve Çelik A.S. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Iskenderun Demir ve Çelik A.S. (ISDMR)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Iskenderun Demir ve Çelik A.S. it is 25.06 TRY per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of 63.45 TRY. It is the blended result of 25 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Iskenderun Demir ve Çelik A.S. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, ISDMR trades above its calculated fair value: price 63.45 TRY, fair value 25.06 TRY, a gap of about −61% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ISDMR?
No. The price is what the market pays today (63.45 TRY); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (25.06 TRY). For Iskenderun Demir ve Çelik A.S. the two are 38.39 TRY per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Iskenderun Demir ve Çelik A.S. worth?
The market values Iskenderun Demir ve Çelik A.S. at about 184B TRY (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is 63.45 TRY; our models calculate a fair value of 25.06 TRY per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ISDMR?
Our models span a range for Iskenderun Demir ve Çelik A.S.: cautious scenario 19.14 TRY, base 25.06 TRY, optimistic 33.31 TRY per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price 63.45 TRY). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of ISDMR?
Iskenderun Demir ve Çelik A.S. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 28.0 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 25.06 TRY is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.3, P/S 1.5, EV/EBITDA 12.5.
How solid is the balance sheet of Iskenderun Demir ve Çelik A.S. (ISDMR)?
Balance-sheet figures for Iskenderun Demir ve Çelik A.S. (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 4.9%, debt of 0.20 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 41/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ISDMR from its 52-week high?
Iskenderun Demir ve Çelik A.S. trades at 63.45 TRY, at its 52-week high of 63.45 TRY and 95% above the low of 32.57 TRY (as of Sep 25, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 25.06 TRY is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Iskenderun Demir ve Çelik A.S.?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Nucor Corporation, ArcelorMittal S.A, Steel Dynamics, Inc, JSW Steel Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Iskenderun Demir ve Çelik A.S. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price 63.45 TRY, calculated fair value 25.06 TRY (−61%), Quality Score 41/100, from 25 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ISDMR calculated?
We run Iskenderun Demir ve Çelik A.S. through 25 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 25.06 TRY, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.9 % above its aggregate fair value. Iskenderun Demir ve Çelik A.S. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Iskenderun Demir ve Çelik A.S. (ISDMR)?
The closing price on Sep 25, 2026 was 63.45 TRY. Our model-based fair value is 25.06 TRY, about −61% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Iskenderun Demir ve Çelik A.S. right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (33.31 TRY). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (41/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
Key figures of Iskenderun Demir ve Çelik A.S.
How large is the market capitalisation of Iskenderun Demir ve Çelik A.S. (ISDMR)?
The market capitalisation of Iskenderun Demir ve Çelik A.S. is 184B TRY (≈ $3.8B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Iskenderun Demir ve Çelik A.S. (ISDMR)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Iskenderun Demir ve Çelik A.S. is 1.41 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Iskenderun Demir ve Çelik A.S. (ISDMR)?
Earnings per share at Iskenderun Demir ve Çelik A.S. are 2.27 TRY (price ÷ EPS = P/E 28.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Iskenderun Demir ve Çelik A.S. (ISDMR)?
The dividend yield of Iskenderun Demir ve Çelik A.S. is 0.0% (payout 0.3%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Iskenderun Demir ve Çelik A.S. (ISDMR)?
The net margin of Iskenderun Demir ve Çelik A.S. is 5.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Iskenderun Demir ve Çelik A.S. (ISDMR)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Iskenderun Demir ve Çelik A.S. is 4.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Iskenderun Demir ve Çelik A.S. (ISDMR)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Iskenderun Demir ve Çelik A.S. is 9.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Iskenderun Demir ve Çelik A.S. (ISDMR)?
The operating margin of Iskenderun Demir ve Çelik A.S. is 4.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Iskenderun Demir ve Çelik A.S. (ISDMR)?
Revenue at Iskenderun Demir ve Çelik A.S. is growing +17.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg +24.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Iskenderun Demir ve Çelik A.S. (ISDMR)?
Earnings per share at Iskenderun Demir ve Çelik A.S. are growing +46.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Iskenderun Demir ve Çelik A.S. (ISDMR) carry?
The net debt of Iskenderun Demir ve Çelik A.S. is 13.9B TRY (fiscal year 2024, ≈ 18.4 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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