Japan Tobacco Inc (JAPAF) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Defensive · US · Market cap $71.6B
Japan Tobacco Inc
JAPAF · US
Fair value as of: Jul 19, 2026
From 22 valuation models · updated 22 days ago
Share price +20.4% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 34% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- Solid but not exceptional quality (65/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- A fairly wide model range ($20.14 to $43.27) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 19, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $10.09 – $46.62 · fair‑value band $20.14 – $43.27 · the $43.32 price screens above the $28.77 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 19, 2026.
Analysis
Japan Tobacco Inc (JAPAF) currently trades at $43.32, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $28.77, implying the stock looks roughly 33.6% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 65/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Japan Tobacco Inc generated revenue of $3.6T at a net margin of 15.3%. Revenue grew 11.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 13.6%. Net debt stands at $848B. Fundamentals as of Jul 19, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $20.14 (bear case) to $43.27 (bull case); at $43.32, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 64% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 4% fair-value upside, at -34%, JAPAF screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 22 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples ($36.67) versus Asset-Based ($11.58). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 19, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 59 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 75
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Japan Tobacco Inc., a tobacco company, engages in the manufacture and sale of tobacco products in Japan and internationally. It operates through two segments: Tobacco Business and Processed Food Business. It offers tobacco products, such as cigarettes, fine cut tobacco products, cigars, pipes, and hookah products.
Full company description
Japan Tobacco Inc., a tobacco company, engages in the manufacture and sale of tobacco products in Japan and internationally. It operates through two segments: Tobacco Business and Processed Food Business. It offers tobacco products, such as cigarettes, fine cut tobacco products, cigars, pipes, and hookah products. The company provides reduced-risk products, including heated tobacco, infused tobacco, e-vapor, traditional oral, and modern oral. Further, the company provides frozen and room-temperature products comprising frozen udon noodles, packed rice, and frozen okonomiyaki; and seasonings, including yeast extracts, assembled, kelp and seaweed, and oyster sauces. It offers its products under the Winston, Camel, Möbius, and LD brands. Japan Tobacco Inc. was founded in 1898 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Japan Tobacco Inc reported revenue of $3.5T in FY2025 versus $2.3T in FY2021, a compound +10.5%/yr. Reported net income was $511B in FY2025, compounding +10.8%/yr from FY2021.
JAPAF screens 34% overvalued. Compare with Philip Morris International Inc →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- JAPAN TOB (JAPAY) Upgraded to Buy: Here's What You Should Know
- Asian Dividend Stocks Featuring Japan Tobacco And Two More Top Picks
- Is Japan Tobacco (TSE:2914) Still Attractively Priced After A 47% One-Year Rally?
Peer Group
Tobacco · 34 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Tobacco median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Tobacco stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 19, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Philip Morris International Inc PM | $188.93 | $103.71 | -45% |
| British American Tobacco p.l.c. BTI | $60.02 | $61.14 | +2% |
| Altria Group MO | $68.44 | $81.81 | +20% |
| ITC Limited ITC | ₹281.75 | ₹282.04 | +0% |
| KT&G Corporation 033780 | 179,900 KRW | 119,073 KRW | -34% |
| PT Hanjaya Mandala Sampoerna Tbk, HMSP | 695.00 IDR | 1,193 IDR | +72% |
| Godfrey Phillips India Limited GODFRYPHLP | ₹2,337 | ₹1,194 | -49% |
| PT Gudang Garam Tbk, GGRM | 16,375 IDR | 16,988 IDR | +4% |
| TABAK TABAK | 18,480 CZK | 23,215 CZK | +26% |
| China Tobacco International (HK) Company 6055 | HK$23.00 | HK$24.09 | +5% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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