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Jiangxi Copper Company (JIAXF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Jiangxi Copper Company $4.23, price $4.30, upside -1.6%, quality 49 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? No
- Good quality? No
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JC
Some data
Oct 3, 2026
Some data
Oct 3, 2026
Jiangxi Copper Company
JIAXF · USLow PriorityFair Value upside is limited and quality is weak.
·Fair value $4.23 · Fairly valued (−1.6%)
!Quality 49/100
!Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +10.7 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 1.4% net margin (TTM)
!Low debt · negative free cash flow
!23.3% dividend yield · Watch coverage
!Narrow moat 28/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 3, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $0.0916 – $5.76 · fair‑value band $2.93 – $6.14 · the $4.30 price screens above the $4.23 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 3, 2026.
Company profile
Jiangxi Copper Company Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in mining, beneficiation, smelting, and processing of copper and gold in Chinese Mainland, China, Hong Kong, and internationally. It operates through two segments, Copper-related Industries and Gold-related Industries.
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Jiangxi Copper Company Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in mining, beneficiation, smelting, and processing of copper and gold in Chinese Mainland, China, Hong Kong, and internationally. It operates through two segments, Copper-related Industries and Gold-related Industries. The company is involved in the businesses of copper, gold, lead and zinc, trade, finance, new materials, engineering construction, equipment manufacturing, information technology, energy conservation and environment protection. It also engages in the extraction and processing of precious metals and scattered metals; smelting, rolling processing, and deep processing of non-ferrous metals and related by-products; research, development, production, and sales of copper materials; manufacture and sales of wires and cables, and trade of related products business. The company was founded in 1979 and is headquartered in Guixi, China.
Stock analysis
Jiangxi Copper Company (JIAXF) currently trades at $4.30, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $4.23, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 1.7%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $10.65 per share, and 14 of the 17 models we run sit above the $4.30 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $2.36, and 3 of the 17 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $2.93 (bear) to $6.14 (bull), the price of $4.30 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 49/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Jiangxi Copper Company reported revenue of 529B CNY in FY2025 versus 443B CNY in FY2021, a compound +4.5%/yr. Reported net income was 7.2B CNY in FY2025, compounding +6.3%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $17.4B · P/E ratio 12.0 · P/S ratio 0.16 · EPS (TTM) $0.3400 · Net margin 1.4% · Return on equity 9.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 6.1% · Operating margin 3.9%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 29 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 25% below its 52-week high and 19% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −22% fair-value upside, at −2%, JIAXF screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $2.93
Fair Value $4.23
Bull $6.14
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Residual Income
$3.02
$3.29
$3.81
76
EPV
$6.69
$7.64
$8.47
74
Owner Earnings
$5.86
$10.65
$19.66
73
All 17 models by family
DCF Models
Owner Earnings
$5.86
$10.65
$19.66
73
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd
$2.11
$11.81
$16.40
63
Lynch FV
$3.30
$4.72
$6.13
61
PEG = 1.0
$3.30
$4.72
$6.13
57
EPV
$6.69
$7.64
$8.47
74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM
$2.43
$5.05
$8.02
66
DDM Multi-Stage
$2.43
$4.26
$5.30
66
Multiples
P/E Multiple
$3.96
$5.28
$6.60
63
P/S Multiple
$3.96
$5.28
$6.60
58
P/B Multiple
$3.96
$5.28
$6.60
55
EV/EBIT
$8.46
$10.94
$13.43
66
EV/EBITDA
$7.44
$9.58
$11.72
67
EV/Revenue
$7.47
$10.24
$13.00
54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
$1.76
$2.36
$3.52
54
Economic Profit
Residual Income
$3.02
$3.29
$3.81
76
ROIC Compounder
$7.76
$10.43
$14.07
71
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E
$4.50
$6.43
$8.36
67
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
49/100
Of which business quality 48 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 62
Profitability
42
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
37
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
10
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
61
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
79
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
17
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
77
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
86
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
82
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
50/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+1.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +11.0% a year
Revenue growth 27 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+22.1%
’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+23.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+23.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.23.9% vs 24.6%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.2% → 3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Copper · 61 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/11 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation Multiplesvs Copper median · lower = cheaper
Context: sector, industry, market
- Is the Materials sector expensive or cheap?
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: US Stocks
- Valuation of the USA market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more Copper stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Southern Copper Corporation SCCO | $202.64 | $157.34 | −22% |
| Freeport-McMoRan Inc FCX | $71.96 | $16.47 | −77% |
| First Quantum Minerals Ltd FM | C$45.54 | C$20.04 | −56% |
| Lundin Mining Corporation LUN | C$33.93 | C$37.32 | +10% |
| MMG Limited 1208 | HK$8.55 | HK$9.40 | +10% |
| Hudbay Minerals Inc HBM | $26.87 | $21.22 | −21% |
| Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group 000630 | ¥5.89 | ¥2.16 | −63% |
| Capstone Copper Corp CS | C$14.54 | C$9.74 | −33% |
| China Nonferrous Mining Corporation 1258 | HK$15.49 | HK$13.82 | −11% |
| Zhejiang Hailiang Co 002203 | ¥17.78 | ¥6.39 | −64% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is Jiangxi Copper Company (JIAXF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 3, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $4.23 versus a price of $4.30, about −2% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of JIAXF?
Our model-based fair value for Jiangxi Copper Company is $4.23 (as of Oct 3, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $4.30.
What is the quality score of JIAXF?
Jiangxi Copper Company has a Quality Score of 49/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Jiangxi Copper Company (JIAXF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $4.23 (as of Oct 3, 2026) from 17 valuation models. Cautious scenario $2.93, optimistic scenario $6.14. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Jiangxi Copper Company stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $4.23, about −2% upside versus a price of $4.30 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario $2.93, optimistic scenario $6.14. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Jiangxi Copper Company (JIAXF)?
Jiangxi Copper Company reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 573B CNY (latest available figure, as of Oct 3, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Jiangxi Copper Company (JIAXF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Jiangxi Copper Company it is $4.23 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026), against a price of $4.30. It is the blended result of 17 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Jiangxi Copper Company stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 3, 2026, JIAXF trades above its calculated fair value: price $4.30, fair value $4.23, a gap of about −2% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of JIAXF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($4.30); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($4.23). For Jiangxi Copper Company the two are $0.0700 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Jiangxi Copper Company worth?
The market values Jiangxi Copper Company at about $17.4B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 3, 2026). Per share that is $4.30; our models calculate a fair value of $4.23 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about JIAXF?
Our models span a range for Jiangxi Copper Company: cautious scenario $2.93, base $4.23, optimistic $6.14 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026, price $4.30). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of JIAXF?
Jiangxi Copper Company trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 12.0 (as of Oct 3, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $4.23 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.8.
What is the PEG ratio of JIAXF?
The PEG ratio of Jiangxi Copper Company is 1.78 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Oct 3, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Jiangxi Copper Company (JIAXF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Jiangxi Copper Company (as of Oct 3, 2026): return on equity 9.2%, debt of 0.12 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 49/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is JIAXF from its 52-week high?
Jiangxi Copper Company trades at $4.30, about 25% below its 52-week high of $5.76 and 19% above the low of $3.61 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $4.23 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Jiangxi Copper Company?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Southern Copper Corporation, Freeport-McMoRan Inc, First Quantum Minerals Ltd, Lundin Mining Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Jiangxi Copper Company stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 3, 2026: price $4.30, calculated fair value $4.23 (−2%), Quality Score 49/100, from 17 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of JIAXF calculated?
We run Jiangxi Copper Company through 17 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $4.23, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Jiangxi Copper Company itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Jiangxi Copper Company (JIAXF)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $4.30. Our model-based fair value is $4.23, about −2% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Jiangxi Copper Company right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. A fairly wide model range ($2.93 to $6.14) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Jiangxi Copper Company (JIAXF) come from?
Earnings per share at Jiangxi Copper Company grew +19.2 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +11.7 %, EBIT margin +7.1 %, tax rate +2.6 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −2.8 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Jiangxi Copper Company
How large is the market capitalisation of Jiangxi Copper Company (JIAXF)?
The market capitalisation of Jiangxi Copper Company is $17.4B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Jiangxi Copper Company (JIAXF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Jiangxi Copper Company is 0.16 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Jiangxi Copper Company (JIAXF)?
Earnings per share at Jiangxi Copper Company are $0.3400 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 12.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Jiangxi Copper Company (JIAXF)?
The net margin of Jiangxi Copper Company is 1.4% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Jiangxi Copper Company (JIAXF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Jiangxi Copper Company is 9.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Jiangxi Copper Company (JIAXF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Jiangxi Copper Company is 6.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Jiangxi Copper Company (JIAXF)?
The operating margin of Jiangxi Copper Company is 3.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Jiangxi Copper Company (JIAXF)?
Revenue at Jiangxi Copper Company is growing +25.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg +3.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Jiangxi Copper Company (JIAXF)?
Earnings per share at Jiangxi Copper Company are growing +43.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Jiangxi Copper Company (JIAXF) generate?
The free cash flow of Jiangxi Copper Company is −11.5B CNY (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Jiangxi Copper Company (JIAXF) carry?
The net debt of Jiangxi Copper Company is 46.0B CNY (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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